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Message
CFP - No "1" will be "left out"
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:36 am
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:36 am
The almost certain to be coming controversy over who got "left out" of the CFP will be based on a flawed belief system.
The purpose of the playoff is to resolve disputes over who is #1 - not to give a set of deserving teams a "shot" at becoming #1. In years past, the pollsters just picked #1. Some years it was indisputable. In others, there might be splits between different polls or multiple teams with #1 votes in individual polls.
The BCS was created to fix this problem by matching a #1 and #2 at the end of the year - to account for years where a lot of reasonable folks think #2 is the real #1.
The playoff is(should) be merely an extension of this idea. Sometimes, rarely, even a team #3 (or maybe even #4) in the polls is perhaps the real #1. e.g. A lot reasonable people thought USC was #1 in 2003 - as the AP voted them #1. There was undeniably a real controversy even if you think FUSC.
There are only THREE teams receiving #1 votes in the coaches and AP (as of last week) - and that will probably be the case again this week. ALL THREE - Bammer, Oregon, FSU - will make it to the CFP. That is a virtual certainty. THEREFORE - NO 1 WILL BE LEFT OUT. The #4th seed is just a consolation prize offered to another good team - and maybe, just maybe they can pull it off, but the likelihood of that is basically squat and we all know it.
I fear that the idea will be that the "true #4" may have been left out so the playoff need to become 8 - then 16 - then frick all. But the "true #1" will definitively NOT be left out.
The purpose of the playoff is to resolve disputes over who is #1 - not to give a set of deserving teams a "shot" at becoming #1. In years past, the pollsters just picked #1. Some years it was indisputable. In others, there might be splits between different polls or multiple teams with #1 votes in individual polls.
The BCS was created to fix this problem by matching a #1 and #2 at the end of the year - to account for years where a lot of reasonable folks think #2 is the real #1.
The playoff is(should) be merely an extension of this idea. Sometimes, rarely, even a team #3 (or maybe even #4) in the polls is perhaps the real #1. e.g. A lot reasonable people thought USC was #1 in 2003 - as the AP voted them #1. There was undeniably a real controversy even if you think FUSC.
There are only THREE teams receiving #1 votes in the coaches and AP (as of last week) - and that will probably be the case again this week. ALL THREE - Bammer, Oregon, FSU - will make it to the CFP. That is a virtual certainty. THEREFORE - NO 1 WILL BE LEFT OUT. The #4th seed is just a consolation prize offered to another good team - and maybe, just maybe they can pull it off, but the likelihood of that is basically squat and we all know it.
I fear that the idea will be that the "true #4" may have been left out so the playoff need to become 8 - then 16 - then frick all. But the "true #1" will definitively NOT be left out.
This post was edited on 12/7/14 at 11:20 am
9
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:40 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
The #4th seed is just a consolation prize offered to another good team - and maybe, just maybe they can pull it off, but the likelihood of that is basically squat and we all know it.
this is so far from the truth, it gives me the runs.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:49 am to oldcharlie8
quote:
this is so far from the truth, it gives me the runs.
No one in the AP or Coaches agrees with you. #1 is NOT being left out.
The risk of any playoff is that #1 will not win it. The longer the playoff the more likely this is the happen. The 2007 Patriots come to mind.
This is why a playoff bracket need only be big enough to include any real #1's.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:49 am to SpidermanTUba
Those #1 votes are just someone's opinion. TCU, Baylor, FSU, tOSU, Bama, and Oregon all have a legitimate argument for being the best team in the country. However, all of them except FSU have lost a game and therefore any "we got screwed" argument.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:50 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
. TCU, Baylor, FSU, tOSU, Bama, and Oregon all have a legitimate argument for being the best team in the country.
No.
Baylor, TCU and tOSU are all one loss in crap conferences. The Big 12 doesn't even have a CG - and the Big 10 is sub-par.
Bammer is going to destroy whichever of those three teams get picked.
This post was edited on 12/7/14 at 7:55 am
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:53 am to SpidermanTUba
I completely agree.
The point is to find the two best teams for a championship game.
The BCS generally did a good job if that, but there was sometimes a #3 team who had a strong case. A #4 team rarely, if ever, deserved to be put in the championship game.
Therefore, any team who gets put in at #4 should just thank their lucky stars that they get a shot.
The point is to find the two best teams for a championship game.
The BCS generally did a good job if that, but there was sometimes a #3 team who had a strong case. A #4 team rarely, if ever, deserved to be put in the championship game.
Therefore, any team who gets put in at #4 should just thank their lucky stars that they get a shot.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 7:56 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
The BCS generally did a good job if that, but there was sometimes a #3 team who had a strong case. A #4 team rarely, if ever, deserved to be put in the championship game.
#4 is really just there to even up the bracket.
I think they will go to an 8 team playoff within the decade for sure. A better system would be to play the bowls first, allowing the bowls to choose their teams as they did pre-Bowl Alliance - and then select the top 4.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:00 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Baylor, TCU and tOSU are all one loss in crap conferences. The Big 12 doesn't even have a CG - and the Big 10 is sub-par.
I think you are really overvaluing the Pac12.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:01 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
#4 is really just there to even up the bracket.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:02 am to SpidermanTUba
Yes tuba totally agree. Lets not forget that in every year of the BCS, you can't really say that the BCS winner didn't deserve to win. Expanding will only continue this nonsensical argument. Lets also not lose sight that there is far less to talk about if you have only 2 or 4 teams in the hunt which is exactly why the media has pushed for the 4 team playoff and why they are trying to stir shite up now.
I can't believe I am in agreement w tuba
I can't believe I am in agreement w tuba
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:04 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Baylor, TCU and tOSU are all one loss in crap conferences.
The Big 12 is the second best Power 5 conference
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:20 am to SpidermanTUba
I agree with the logic in your post although I probably wouldn't make the absolute declaration that the eventual 4th team couldn't win it all. I also wouldn't say that we got all of the teams with a case to be #1 just because all 3 teams in the AP and Coaches' Polls receiving 1st-place votes are in. There's a lot of groupthink and name recognition bias involved in these things and so I'm hesitant to use that as the only criterion for determining whether we missed someone.
With that said, I do favor going to 8 and capping it there. Some years you can make reasonable enough cases for more than four teams. 2007 comes to mind immediately: Ohio State and Kansas both had one loss but were not perceived as being the best teams in the country, Hawaii was the lone undefeated team and definitely not perceived as such, and you had a whole slew of powerful 2-loss teams, one of whom won the title. I know 07 is an outlier compared to the norm, but I think in most years you have an appreciable risk of leaving out a legitimate #1 contender with 4 teams, whereas you have an insignificant (although nonzero) risk of doing so with 8.
With that said, I do favor going to 8 and capping it there. Some years you can make reasonable enough cases for more than four teams. 2007 comes to mind immediately: Ohio State and Kansas both had one loss but were not perceived as being the best teams in the country, Hawaii was the lone undefeated team and definitely not perceived as such, and you had a whole slew of powerful 2-loss teams, one of whom won the title. I know 07 is an outlier compared to the norm, but I think in most years you have an appreciable risk of leaving out a legitimate #1 contender with 4 teams, whereas you have an insignificant (although nonzero) risk of doing so with 8.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:26 am to SpidermanTUba
I agree.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:27 am to Patrick_Bateman
Well there was no reason to have a National Title game in 2006. OSU had all the votes! Give them the title! No doubt!
Posted on 12/7/14 at 8:32 am to SpidermanTUba
I agree with every word of the OP.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:24 am to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Bammer is going to destroy whichever of those three teams get picked.
If a team has a really good passing game and can run the ball pretty well, they can easily keep up with bama. The key is if they have the defense to make some stops and contain cooper. If they an do that, they are definitely beatable.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:25 am to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
The Big 12 is the second best Power 5 conference
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:29 am to harry coleman beast
(no message)
This post was edited on 12/7/14 at 10:31 am
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:50 am to SpidermanTUba
Agreed, and the only reasons to expand to eight are money and because the fans crave games with two really good football teams.
But imagine what you would have to accomplish to win the damn thing.
Say you're a one seed.
In the first round you play eight. The "easy" opponent who is still the #8 TEAM IN THE NATION!
Then you get to play a top five team.
THEN you get the national championship game against a likely top four team.
HOLY frick.
In four weeks you play as many top ten teams as most teams do in FOUR YEARS!
Would that truly crown the best team in the country or just the team that manages to avoid significant injury?
Football isn't basketball.
But imagine what you would have to accomplish to win the damn thing.
Say you're a one seed.
In the first round you play eight. The "easy" opponent who is still the #8 TEAM IN THE NATION!
Then you get to play a top five team.
THEN you get the national championship game against a likely top four team.
HOLY frick.
In four weeks you play as many top ten teams as most teams do in FOUR YEARS!
Would that truly crown the best team in the country or just the team that manages to avoid significant injury?
Football isn't basketball.
Posted on 12/7/14 at 10:55 am to SpidermanTUba
Baylor and TCU are both really bad matchups for Bama.... they want Ohio St or Florida St
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