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Millions will NOT sign up for this executive order program

Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:15 am
Posted by Willie Stroker
Member since Sep 2008
12898 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:15 am
Will there be a significant number of immigrants illegally in the US actually taking advantage of this new Executive Order? What benefit does it really give them?

Put yourself in their shoes. Let’s say you’re here illegally and are employed. Obviously you have a job and an income. This order is enticing to you why? It asks you to pay back taxes and register. Why would you want this? Why not NOT pay back taxes and keep working? You know that by registering, you will identify yourself to government officials and will probably be reporting where you work, where you live, and other identifying information. All of this information can be used to track you down and locate you if the next administration decides to do business differently.

It is still against the law to knowingly hire illegal aliens. If you are a business owner and you either knowingly hire them or hire them and attempt to maintain plausible deniability, it is in your best interest that these employees do not register. So you have an incentive to make this opportunity seem risky to them. You’re probably going to tell them that if they register, the government can change their minds with the stroke of a pen and will know where they are to locate them and deport them, costing them additional money if they ever want to pay a coyote to escort them back.

I’m sure a handful of people will sign up simply because Jonathan Gruber’s statement doesn’t just apply to Americans. But among non-Americans, why would any meaningful number of them actually trust the government, especially if there are American employers warning them not to? It definitely won't be in the millions. I doubt the number of people registering exceeds 5 digits.
Posted by gatorrocks
Lake Mary, FL
Member since Oct 2007
13969 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:17 am to
Yep. The one thing that surprised me is he didn't go that far with his "Amnesty".

I'm sure there are 11 million people saying "Wait! He said I could be American today!"
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20870 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:22 am to
You don't understand how this works. They will get deferred action and a work permit from this. The employers will thus not be hiring illegal labor.
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
35406 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:25 am to
quote:

Millions will NOT sign up for this executive order program
I agree. You will probably get less than a million to sign up.
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20870 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:27 am to
No, there will probably be a lot.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112488 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:27 am to
I am not nearly as concerned with the actual impact of the executive order on human beings' lives as I am about the damage to the Constitution.

Obama keeps saying the EO is 'within my legal power as President' but he never explains how. It's just an assertion.

This is a big step toward tyranny.
Posted by USMCTiger03
Member since Sep 2007
71176 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:30 am to
Sign up, get paid min wage but have to pay taxes.

Don't sign up, get paid same.

Probably a wash meaning less incentive.

Plus can't they just keep going along unless/until they get arrested and then "register"? There's not a deadline is there?
Posted by texashorn
Member since May 2008
13122 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Only 55 percent of the 1.2 million immigrants who were eligible for relief from deportation when President Barack Obama launched the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program in 2012 have applied for this protection.


Many Dreamers aren't signing up for Obama's deportation relief
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20870 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:32 am to
quote:

I am not nearly as concerned with the actual impact of the executive order on human beings' lives as I am about the damage to the Constitution.

Obama keeps saying the EO is 'within my legal power as President' but he never explains how. It's just an assertion.

This is a big step toward tyranny.


This. Some of the provisions of the order would be great if duly passed by Congress. We aren't deporting 11 million people. I just can't stand emperor Obama's overreach.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 10:35 am
Posted by Willie Stroker
Member since Sep 2008
12898 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:34 am to
quote:

You don't understand how this works. They will get deferred action and a work permit from this. The employers will thus not be hiring illegal labor.


The order does not absolve the employer of the criminal act of having previously hired an illegal alien. Why would an employer even risk litigating that?

The incentive for the employer is to hire new people that ARE registered with the same skill set that are willing to work for the same wages. They have an incentive to avoid any and every appearance that they previously hired an illegal alien.
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20870 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:43 am to
quote:

The order does not absolve the employer of the criminal act of having previously hired an illegal alien. Why would an employer even risk litigating that?


You're kidding, right? You think they run a greater risk by continuing to employ illegals than they would by quietly adding new deferred action employees to the payroll? No one, literally, is going around prosecuting businesses for hiring illegal labor in the past when they are never caught.

quote:

The incentive for the employer is to hire new people that ARE registered with the same skill set that are willing to work for the same wages. They have an incentive to avoid any and every appearance that they previously hired an illegal alien.


So there is an incentive for people to sign up, then? I rest my case. You lack a fundamental understanding of how the immigration system works if you think employers are constantly under threat of prosecution for hiring illegal labor. They're really not. There aren't enough resources to deal with it.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 11:02 am
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41195 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:51 am to
In order to apply one would have to pay a fee of $465.
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20870 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:03 am to
quote:

In order to apply one would have to pay a fee of $465.


Yep, just like every form out there besides asylum and a few others.
Posted by mauser
Orange Beach
Member since Nov 2008
21597 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:06 am to
And I am sure all of these "bed makers and fruit pickers" don't make enough to pay any back taxes.
Posted by Keltic Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2006
19303 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:07 am to
Just watch how many families cross over now & claim that they've been here for 5+ yrs or so. How can the govt verify how long a family has been here if there are no records kept.
Posted by Willie Stroker
Member since Sep 2008
12898 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:13 am to
quote:

You think they run a greater risk by continuing to employ illegals than they would by quietly adding new deferred action employees to the payroll?


Do you really think the words I used indicate that is what I think?

Behavioral economics suggests it is easier to keep doing what you are currently doing and that behavior change doesn't come easy.

The signal being sent to employers is that a crackdown on prosecutions is NOT coming. So why change anything when that change comes with uncertainty and risk? If their business model is working, why should they change it? Why not wait it out until the next administration plays their hand?
Posted by DosManos
Member since Oct 2013
3552 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Just watch how many families cross over now & claim that they've been here for 5+ yrs or so. How can the govt verify how long a family has been here if there are no records kept.



Also, how do they know how many illegals are here anyway if they aren't "in the system"?
Posted by Gmorgan4982
Member since May 2005
101750 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:01 pm to
This is what I've thought. Most illegal immigrants aren't going to sign up for this.
Posted by jamboybarry
Member since Feb 2011
32653 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:03 pm to
Take it completely FWIW but listening to AM radio news here in DC, lawyers are getting hundreds of calls from potential "EO'ers" asking if it applies to them and what crimes would prevent them from getting a work authorization
Posted by arcalades
USA
Member since Feb 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:14 pm to
I assume signing up for Obama's amnesty is like signing a gun registry. Will be used against you eventually.
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