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Started By
Message
Millions will NOT sign up for this executive order program
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:15 am
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:15 am
Will there be a significant number of immigrants illegally in the US actually taking advantage of this new Executive Order? What benefit does it really give them?
Put yourself in their shoes. Let’s say you’re here illegally and are employed. Obviously you have a job and an income. This order is enticing to you why? It asks you to pay back taxes and register. Why would you want this? Why not NOT pay back taxes and keep working? You know that by registering, you will identify yourself to government officials and will probably be reporting where you work, where you live, and other identifying information. All of this information can be used to track you down and locate you if the next administration decides to do business differently.
It is still against the law to knowingly hire illegal aliens. If you are a business owner and you either knowingly hire them or hire them and attempt to maintain plausible deniability, it is in your best interest that these employees do not register. So you have an incentive to make this opportunity seem risky to them. You’re probably going to tell them that if they register, the government can change their minds with the stroke of a pen and will know where they are to locate them and deport them, costing them additional money if they ever want to pay a coyote to escort them back.
I’m sure a handful of people will sign up simply because Jonathan Gruber’s statement doesn’t just apply to Americans. But among non-Americans, why would any meaningful number of them actually trust the government, especially if there are American employers warning them not to? It definitely won't be in the millions. I doubt the number of people registering exceeds 5 digits.
Put yourself in their shoes. Let’s say you’re here illegally and are employed. Obviously you have a job and an income. This order is enticing to you why? It asks you to pay back taxes and register. Why would you want this? Why not NOT pay back taxes and keep working? You know that by registering, you will identify yourself to government officials and will probably be reporting where you work, where you live, and other identifying information. All of this information can be used to track you down and locate you if the next administration decides to do business differently.
It is still against the law to knowingly hire illegal aliens. If you are a business owner and you either knowingly hire them or hire them and attempt to maintain plausible deniability, it is in your best interest that these employees do not register. So you have an incentive to make this opportunity seem risky to them. You’re probably going to tell them that if they register, the government can change their minds with the stroke of a pen and will know where they are to locate them and deport them, costing them additional money if they ever want to pay a coyote to escort them back.
I’m sure a handful of people will sign up simply because Jonathan Gruber’s statement doesn’t just apply to Americans. But among non-Americans, why would any meaningful number of them actually trust the government, especially if there are American employers warning them not to? It definitely won't be in the millions. I doubt the number of people registering exceeds 5 digits.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:17 am to Willie Stroker
Yep. The one thing that surprised me is he didn't go that far with his "Amnesty".
I'm sure there are 11 million people saying "Wait! He said I could be American today!"
I'm sure there are 11 million people saying "Wait! He said I could be American today!"
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:22 am to Willie Stroker
You don't understand how this works. They will get deferred action and a work permit from this. The employers will thus not be hiring illegal labor.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:25 am to Willie Stroker
quote:I agree. You will probably get less than a million to sign up.
Millions will NOT sign up for this executive order program
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:27 am to mmcgrath
No, there will probably be a lot.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:27 am to Willie Stroker
I am not nearly as concerned with the actual impact of the executive order on human beings' lives as I am about the damage to the Constitution.
Obama keeps saying the EO is 'within my legal power as President' but he never explains how. It's just an assertion.
This is a big step toward tyranny.
Obama keeps saying the EO is 'within my legal power as President' but he never explains how. It's just an assertion.
This is a big step toward tyranny.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:30 am to Willie Stroker
Sign up, get paid min wage but have to pay taxes.
Don't sign up, get paid same.
Probably a wash meaning less incentive.
Plus can't they just keep going along unless/until they get arrested and then "register"? There's not a deadline is there?
Don't sign up, get paid same.
Probably a wash meaning less incentive.
Plus can't they just keep going along unless/until they get arrested and then "register"? There's not a deadline is there?
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:30 am to Willie Stroker
quote:
Only 55 percent of the 1.2 million immigrants who were eligible for relief from deportation when President Barack Obama launched the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program in 2012 have applied for this protection.
Many Dreamers aren't signing up for Obama's deportation relief
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:32 am to Zach
quote:
I am not nearly as concerned with the actual impact of the executive order on human beings' lives as I am about the damage to the Constitution.
Obama keeps saying the EO is 'within my legal power as President' but he never explains how. It's just an assertion.
This is a big step toward tyranny.
This. Some of the provisions of the order would be great if duly passed by Congress. We aren't deporting 11 million people. I just can't stand emperor Obama's overreach.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:34 am to Tigerlaff
quote:
You don't understand how this works. They will get deferred action and a work permit from this. The employers will thus not be hiring illegal labor.
The order does not absolve the employer of the criminal act of having previously hired an illegal alien. Why would an employer even risk litigating that?
The incentive for the employer is to hire new people that ARE registered with the same skill set that are willing to work for the same wages. They have an incentive to avoid any and every appearance that they previously hired an illegal alien.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:43 am to Willie Stroker
quote:
The order does not absolve the employer of the criminal act of having previously hired an illegal alien. Why would an employer even risk litigating that?
You're kidding, right? You think they run a greater risk by continuing to employ illegals than they would by quietly adding new deferred action employees to the payroll? No one, literally, is going around prosecuting businesses for hiring illegal labor in the past when they are never caught.
quote:
The incentive for the employer is to hire new people that ARE registered with the same skill set that are willing to work for the same wages. They have an incentive to avoid any and every appearance that they previously hired an illegal alien.
So there is an incentive for people to sign up, then? I rest my case. You lack a fundamental understanding of how the immigration system works if you think employers are constantly under threat of prosecution for hiring illegal labor. They're really not. There aren't enough resources to deal with it.
This post was edited on 11/21/14 at 11:02 am
Posted on 11/21/14 at 10:51 am to Tigerlaff
In order to apply one would have to pay a fee of $465.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:03 am to TigerintheNO
quote:
In order to apply one would have to pay a fee of $465.
Yep, just like every form out there besides asylum and a few others.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:06 am to Willie Stroker
And I am sure all of these "bed makers and fruit pickers" don't make enough to pay any back taxes.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:07 am to Tigerlaff
Just watch how many families cross over now & claim that they've been here for 5+ yrs or so. How can the govt verify how long a family has been here if there are no records kept.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:13 am to Tigerlaff
quote:
You think they run a greater risk by continuing to employ illegals than they would by quietly adding new deferred action employees to the payroll?
Do you really think the words I used indicate that is what I think?
Behavioral economics suggests it is easier to keep doing what you are currently doing and that behavior change doesn't come easy.
The signal being sent to employers is that a crackdown on prosecutions is NOT coming. So why change anything when that change comes with uncertainty and risk? If their business model is working, why should they change it? Why not wait it out until the next administration plays their hand?
Posted on 11/21/14 at 11:24 am to Keltic Tiger
quote:
Just watch how many families cross over now & claim that they've been here for 5+ yrs or so. How can the govt verify how long a family has been here if there are no records kept.
Also, how do they know how many illegals are here anyway if they aren't "in the system"?
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:01 pm to Willie Stroker
This is what I've thought. Most illegal immigrants aren't going to sign up for this.
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:03 pm to Gmorgan4982
Take it completely FWIW but listening to AM radio news here in DC, lawyers are getting hundreds of calls from potential "EO'ers" asking if it applies to them and what crimes would prevent them from getting a work authorization
Posted on 11/21/14 at 12:14 pm to Willie Stroker
I assume signing up for Obama's amnesty is like signing a gun registry. Will be used against you eventually.
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