re: Odds We Take 3 Of 4 To Close Season

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I like our chances....70% maybe

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does anyone have an email for RedTigerRulz, someone has clearly hacked his account.

im with you though. ive watched a few ole miss games frame by frame this week and i think we're good.

one thing i havent seen anyone mention is that kentucky was the absolutely ideal practice game, that was a huge stroke of luck. ole miss is better at it, but it's almost the same offense.

i havent watched any other bama games closely yet, but just based on ole miss im starting to think LSU can run the table here. even though i think saban is overrated i know he's a great coach, and it was shocking to see how dumb and poorly prepared bama was in that game.

odds of winning 3 of 4 is virtually zero. Decent chance we'll lose 3 of 4.

This is a very tough stretch. Ole Miss is legit. Bama is legit. Both at home, but very tough to win either of those games.

Arky is on the road the week after Bama. We'll be emotionally spent, and Arky always plays us tough. And they run the ball very well up the gut. Honestly, I'm scared of that one. We can win, but it will be close.

A&M is on the road and has a good offense. We shut down Johnny the last couple years so maybe we can do it again. But they're still dangerous.

Hoping for the best, but staying realistic.

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does anyone have an email for RedTigerRulz, someone has clearly hacked his account

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Hey now...I'm usually always positive BEFORE the game.
After the game is reserved for inane, petulant tantrums!!

From a strictly mathematical standpoint there are 16 possible outcomes of 4 games:

WWWW
WWWL
WWLW
WWLL
WLWW
WLWL
WLLW
WLLL
LWWW
LWWL
LWLW
LWWL
LLWW
LLWL
LLLW
LLLL

There are 4 of 16 (25%) outcomes that give a 3-1 mark.
There are 6 of 16 (37.5%) outcomes that give a 2-2 mark.
There are 4 of 16 (25%) outcomes that give a 1-3 mark.
There is 1 of 16 (6.25%) outcomes that gives a 4-0 mark.
There is 1 of 16 (6.25%) outcomes that gives a 0-4 mark.

That assumes a 50/50 outcome for each game. By being an underdog, the odds of winning are below 50%. Of course that is if you use vegas odds as a guide for percentage chance.

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From a strictly mathematical standpoint

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Each outcome does not have the same probability though. This is not equivalent to a coin flip example in your math book.

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I like our chances....70% maybe

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Really? I thought I was optimistic. I'd say we have about a 40% chance of winning this one. Maybe 80% for both Arkansas and A&M. So if you multiply those together (.4 x .8 x .8), you get 25%. Seems about right to me.

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Each outcome does not have the same probability though. This is not equivalent to a coin flip example in your math book.

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Accidental down vote, sorry.

EASY 0%