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Odds We Take 3 Of 4 To Close Season
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:22 am
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:22 am
I like our chances....70% maybe. But the OM is crucial. We lose that one and I don't see us getting back up even for Bama.
We can easily spank TAM and Arky with efforts similar to the last 2 games.
Got...to....beat....the....Rebs!!!!!
We can easily spank TAM and Arky with efforts similar to the last 2 games.
Got...to....beat....the....Rebs!!!!!
20
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:24 am to RedTigerRulz
Can do it but have to take risks. Won't happen by playing conservative.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:27 am to RedTigerRulz
I don't think anyone is really going to crunch the numbers, but I'd have to say the picture will obviously be much clearer after Saturday. I like our shot against Ole Miss and believe we'll win. But I don't really get a sense that momentum will build after that. Bama has become LSU's cryptonite these last few seasons, and Arky will likely still be hungry for that first win in forever and will give us hell at their house. I'd put 2-2 at about 60-70% (again, no math went into that). 3-1 is tough to read.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:28 am to RedTigerRulz
30% we get 3 out of 4. Assuming we lose to Bama (worst of the matchups IMO), I think we have a 50/50 shot of beating OM, 70% odds of beating Arkansas, and 90% odds of beating aTM. Add all that up and we have a 30% chance of winning those three games IMO.
If we lose to OM, the odds of us winning out are worse than 30%.
If we lose to OM, the odds of us winning out are worse than 30%.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:29 am to RedTigerRulz
If we win tomorrow night. I feel good about 3/4.
If we lose I'll predict 1/4.
If we lose I'll predict 1/4.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:31 am to RedTigerRulz
15%
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:31 am to RedTigerRulz
rofl
Definitely not 70%.
Definitely not 70%.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:33 am to RedTigerRulz
On 10/24 I say 12%
Greatly enhanced should we win tomorrow. Conversely almost zero should we lose.
Greatly enhanced should we win tomorrow. Conversely almost zero should we lose.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:40 am to RedTigerRulz
My guess at Vegas's money lines:
OM @ LSU ~ 40%
Bama @ LSU ~ 45%
LSU @ Ark ~ 60%
LSU @ A&M ~ 40%
~~ 4% chance of winning out
~~ 25% of winning 3 of 4
OM @ LSU ~ 40%
Bama @ LSU ~ 45%
LSU @ Ark ~ 60%
LSU @ A&M ~ 40%
~~ 4% chance of winning out
~~ 25% of winning 3 of 4
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:41 am to RedTigerRulz
So you think we have a 90% chance to win each of those 3 games separately?
Because that's what it takes to get a ~70% chance to win all 3 together.
0.9*0.9*0.9 = 0.72 = 72% chance to win all 3
We don't have a 90% chance to win any of them separately.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:45 am to RedTigerRulz
Even.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:47 am to RedTigerRulz
It's possible, but I think that Ole Miss is still the hardest game we have left, Bama included. So 2 out of 4 is much more realistic.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:51 am to emanresu
quote:
So you think we have a 90% chance to win each of those 3 games separately?
Was only spitballin' dude!!
trying to stay positive....well least as much as I can. Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:53 am to AstroTiger
quote:
Bama @ LSU ~ 45%
Honestly probably a little generous at this point (from Vegas' perspective).
quote:
LSU @ A&M ~ 40%
We're probably closer to even here.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:53 am to RedTigerRulz
More likely 2 more wins
Posted on 10/24/14 at 11:56 am to Navytiger74
It all depends on what happens this week. I could see the Bama game being close to a pick'em in our place, especially should we win tomorrow. And on the road I can't see A&M being favored by less than 3. Of course that's my opinion and I'm not a Vegas line setter.
eta: even with the adjustment 40% and 50% for Bama and A&M respectively, it only would only make the odds about 27%
eta: even with the adjustment 40% and 50% for Bama and A&M respectively, it only would only make the odds about 27%
This post was edited on 10/24/14 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 10/24/14 at 12:00 pm to AstroTiger
I really believe an Ol Piss win gives us confidence out the azz...and propels us to a great game against Bama.
We roll these two teams over the next 3 weeks...I think we win out.
We roll these two teams over the next 3 weeks...I think we win out.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 12:03 pm to emanresu
quote:
0.9*0.9*0.9 = 0.72 = 72% chance to win all 3
Dude ... you really expect posters on this site to understand math?
Posted on 10/24/14 at 12:05 pm to RedTigerRulz
On the one hand, I think every game is close to a coin flip. But let's be honest that they aren't exactly 50%. I think we lose to Bama and beat A&M. I think OM is better than Arkansas but the Hogs match up better with us. We need to sweep the two coin flip games, and get the near certain win and probably lose to Bama. That means we have about a 25% of going 3-1. But also a 25% of going 1-3.
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