re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

Obama did something right for once

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I would be very surprised if the average Russian citizen knows why the sanctions were put in place because of Putin's control over the Russian media.

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They would just blame the west regardless.

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If you sit by the river long enough...

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...maybe you'll jump in it???

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Obama did something right for once

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Yes, but, direct US military action against Russian armed forces was never an option.

Arming the Ukrainian Armed Forces was, but, no matter how much we did that, Russia could crush them.

In my view, sanctions were the best option, along with reinforcing our military commitment to NATO.

I have never thought that Putin's best options were to invade Crimea, Eastern Ukraine or anywhere else. I never understood why he chose this path.

I don't know, but, to me it seems that Russia's best interests would be served by being a partnered with the West, not at odds with the West.

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Russian, what is your opinion of the reports in European press about Vlad having cancer?

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I have no insight into that situation. Like you, all I know is what I read on the news.

My guess is it's not true and probably just wishful thinking of some of his opponents, either foreign or domestic, part.

It's also not totally out of the question that Putin himself has put out those rumors in an attempt for him to identify which of his "loyal" people start hedging their bets to move to other possible successors. Russians do that kind of double-cross, intrigue stuff in order to assess the real loyalty of their followers.

The Russian ruble has lost a little over 10% of its value versus to the US dollar over the last two trading days.

It's happened! The Central Bank of Russia announced today it will stop supporting the ruble and let it freely float.

As the link below says, the ruble has lost half of its value in 2014 in spite of the Central Bank of Russia spending $110 BILLION of its reserves to prop up the Russian currency this year, $30 billion last month alone.

It appears the CBR made its announcement after the currency exchange markets closed on Monday in Moscow meaning the full effect on the ruble won't be known until the markets open on Tuesday in Russia.

The following quote supports my prediction that Russia will default on its debt soon:

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The ruble is expected to come under more pressure next year, when Russian companies and banks will have to pay back about $100 billon in hard currency debts, he added.

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LINK

There won't be enough rubles owned by borrowers to buy the euros and dollars needed to pay off debts.

LSURussian, what would you say the long term effects of this will be?

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he shitty part is that a collapsing ruble will disproportionately hurt the working class in Russia.

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so then it's like the devaluation of the dollar from the feds overprinting of it, which hurts the American working class? hmmm, ya don't say.

yea Putin looks like he is maintaining control on the neighbor states ability to obtain resources like natural gas from other sources, he is acting to help maintain the oligarchy. Interesting how much Russian and US govt's act the same, control business for their own interests, but I'm sure it's just a great big coinky dink!

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I'll bet that some sort of deal to pay off in commodities will be brokered.

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If the borrowers have commodities that can be sold for euros or dollars, why would they have to barter with those commodities?

They would just sell the commodities for the hard currency they need and then pay of their loan with the proceeds.

If they don't have commodities that can be sold for a hard currency, then bartering won't help them.