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Started By
Message
Why China's military is a paper dragon
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:05 pm
LINK
Very long, but informative and well-researched article about China's actual defense capabilities.
Very long, but informative and well-researched article about China's actual defense capabilities.
3
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:06 pm to Jim Rockford
I thought most people knew this already?
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:19 pm to Jim Rockford
Counterpoint:
It's primary advantage is population. It can attrit any country in a conventional war. The only way to overcome this advantage is either through use of WMDs, or wholesale slaughter with conventional weapons.
This country has not shown a willingness to do either of these since WWII.
It's primary advantage is population. It can attrit any country in a conventional war. The only way to overcome this advantage is either through use of WMDs, or wholesale slaughter with conventional weapons.
This country has not shown a willingness to do either of these since WWII.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:26 pm to Jim Rockford
I'd say it's a paper dragon compared to the US. But it's certainly the regional powerhouse.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:27 pm to udtiger
quote:Sort of.
It's primary advantage is population.
quote:Sort of. Depends on the enemy and the reason for the war. A billion people is fine if they love their situation. If they get restless, a billion people is instantly your biggest problem.
It can attrit any country in a conventional war.
quote:That isn't the only way. If things get bad enough at home for them, and they would very, very quickly in a conventional war, the public turning could effectively shut down the PRC's ability to supply and maintain a conventional military.
The only way to overcome this advantage is either through use of WMDs, or wholesale slaughter with conventional weapons.
quote:Yes. It's been called for so many times since then, and our lack of desire for a wholesale slaughter of an opponent has really damaged us. So very prescient.
This country has not shown a willingness to do either of these since WWII.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:39 pm to FT
quote:
It's primary advantage is population
quote:
Sort of.
Correct.....the population advantage only works if you can get them to where the fighting will be.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:00 pm to udtiger
quote:
It's primary advantage is population. It can attrit any country in a conventional war. The only way to overcome this advantage is either through use of WMDs, or wholesale slaughter with conventional weapons.
Covered in the article:
China can't project power anywhere, for a variety of reasons. It can defend its own borders, but there's no plausible scenario under which we would invade them anyway. And their population is rapidly aging, so even the demographic advantage will disappear.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:16 pm to FT
quote:
A billion people is fine if they love their situation. If they get restless, a billion people is instantly your biggest problem.
They don't have a billion people. It's 1.3 billion - before you dismiss that "point 3" remember, that "point 3" is about 100% of the U.S. population.
To put it another way, they have the same population as the U.S., PLUS a billion.
But, true enough, FT, their strength IS their weakness. Those 1.3 billion have to eat every day. They consume electricity and water, drive cars/ride mass transit, need jobs, places to live, etc. Not to mention what 1.3 billion people need in the way of other consumables (not food and water), such as batteries, tires, POL, the list goes on and on.
It's a solid foundation, but a low ceiling.
(Good thing they're not very tall then.....
)
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:22 pm to Ace Midnight
Population is only an advantage if said people know how to fight. I like the US's trained killers chances against a population of rice farmers any day.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:28 pm to BoogerEater
quote:
I like the US's trained killers
This ain't the 50s no more, brah.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:28 pm to BoogerEater
I've been there a few times to the industrial areas. It seemed like every 10 miles outside of a city we went time went back 50 years.
Just because they have over a billion people, doesn't mean they have a billion soldiers. In the US "there's a gun behind every tree" actually means something.
We could wipe China off of the map without putting our finger on the button.
Just because they have over a billion people, doesn't mean they have a billion soldiers. In the US "there's a gun behind every tree" actually means something.
We could wipe China off of the map without putting our finger on the button.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:04 pm to bamarep
China has managed to project power just fine... as long as you share a border with them. India, Tibet, Korea, Vietnam... they've done well enough that most of the countries in the area are thrilled to kiss up to the US to back China away.
I would not call them a paper dragon. Dangerous if they can actually close with you and get you in a fight? Oh yeah. They are a solid regional power right now. A major threat to invade Australia or throw down with Luxemburg? Not so much.
I would not call them a paper dragon. Dangerous if they can actually close with you and get you in a fight? Oh yeah. They are a solid regional power right now. A major threat to invade Australia or throw down with Luxemburg? Not so much.
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