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Started By
Message
99.999% likelihood GW is man made.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:23 pm
quote:
The results of our statistical analysis would suggest that it is highly likely (99.999 percent) that the 304 consecutive months of anomalously warm global temperatures to June 2010 is directly attributable to the accumulation of global greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The corollary is that it is extremely unlikely (0.001 percent) that the observed anomalous warming is not associated with anthropogenic GHG emissions. Solar radiation was found to be an insignificant contributor to global warming over the last century, which is consistent with the earlier findings of Allen et al. (2000).
LINK
There still is a 0.001% chance this isn't man made. We shouldn't act until we are certain.
38
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:25 pm to SpidermanTUba
Whats sad is i read the article last week, and both agree and disagree with portions...
Too bad you're incapable of having an academic discussion about the article.
Too bad you're incapable of having an academic discussion about the article.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:27 pm to SpidermanTUba
And a 100% likelihood material variables exists that we aren't even aware of due to the sheer scope of this regression analysis, thus this isn't very accurate from a statistical stand point.
Great article from The Economists on statistical pitfalls associated with scientific research .
and another....
Unreliable Research
and another...
Flawed System of Research Leads to Fraud
and another...
Midconduct in Science
Great article from The Economists on statistical pitfalls associated with scientific research .
and another....
Unreliable Research
and another...
Flawed System of Research Leads to Fraud
and another...
Midconduct in Science
This post was edited on 9/8/14 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:27 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:damn that water vapor!
accumulation of global greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:30 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
We shouldn't act until we are certain.
What "act" would result in a material change? I'll even assume China & India agree, and that the world economy doesn't tank.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:30 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
statistical analysis
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:31 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Whats sad is i read the article last week, and both agree and disagree with portions...
Too bad you're incapable of having an academic discussion about the article.
Nice discussion.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:32 pm to SpidermanTUba
Will read in more depth later. But a quick scan raises a question... why limit possible inputs to the model when the causality seems to be unknown? Doing so kind of sets up the conclusion (from what I can tell).
Thanks for posting ST. It looks like it's worth checking out.
Thanks for posting ST. It looks like it's worth checking out.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:32 pm to McLemore
Now why don't I believe this?
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:32 pm to SpidermanTUba
It's not the US, tell the developing 3rd world countries to knock it off.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:33 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
Nice discussion.
I explained already why it's pointless with you. You dont understand the science, or the math, or the concepts. Hell, Im not even sure you can read the article and come to the correct conclusion they describe.
You're intellectually incapable of discussing the article, so why post it?
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:35 pm to SpidermanTUba
What difference does it make?
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:37 pm to SpidermanTUba
GW is so surrounded with politics and money that it is very hard to take serious any study on either side about it.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:38 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:So please tell us, dear Wise One, what did Homo heidelbergensis or Homo neanderthalis or Homo sapiens do to end the Ice Age 10,000 - 12,000 years ago???? That's when the most recent episode of 'global warming' began.
99.999% likelihood GW is man made.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:38 pm to SpidermanTUba
LINK
quote:
The numbers are in and the verdict is that there has been no global warming for 17 years and 11 months, according to satellite data.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:39 pm to SpidermanTUba
So what? Man is part of nature so that makes it 100% natural.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:45 pm to SpidermanTUba
This is circular reasoning. They're using their model of past data to predict past data. Then they take out variables and the "predictions" of past data change.
Eta: how does an article with such poor materials and methods even pass peer review?
The shortcomings of the model are clear when you look at the abysmal record for predicting future temperatures.
Eta: how does an article with such poor materials and methods even pass peer review?
The shortcomings of the model are clear when you look at the abysmal record for predicting future temperatures.
This post was edited on 9/8/14 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:45 pm to schexyoung
quote:
Great article from The Economists on
this is great thank you.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:46 pm to SpidermanTUba
SpidermanTUba 
Posted on 9/8/14 at 1:46 pm to dante
I accidentally upvoted this puppy. My bad
S/b 0/9
S/b 0/9
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