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Microsoft Engine That Nailed World Cup Predicts NFL
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:09 pm
LINK
quote:
Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season.
The predictions come from a model by Bing Predicts that takes into account 2013 results, offensive and defensive stats, margin of victory, location, weather, and public sentiment (which is meant to help identify real-time factors, like injuries).
quote:
Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks win (74.2% chance)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams — Rams win (67.4% chance)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win (75.4% chance)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — Jets win (62.9% chance)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win (59.8% chance)
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Bears win (64.4% chance)
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Chiefs win (64.4% chance)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins — Patriots win (61.4% chance)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys — 49ers win (68.8% chance)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos — Broncos win (77.8% chance)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions — Lions win (61.4%% chance)
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals win (58.2% chance)
13
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:10 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
Texans win (51% chance)
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:10 pm to Indfanfromcol
i was looking for the Saints in bold on the right side, and i thought it missed that game, but nope.
quote:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:13 pm to Indfanfromcol
The crazy thing is I really agree with every single game and the percentages they give EXCEPT the Saints / Falcons.
The likelihoods are right on IMO pretty much across the board - I agree that Miami and Dallas have better chances at upsets than most think. But man that Saints percentage is straight up crazy.
The likelihoods are right on IMO pretty much across the board - I agree that Miami and Dallas have better chances at upsets than most think. But man that Saints percentage is straight up crazy.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:15 pm to SirWinston
quote:
The Falcons might win this game, but any system that gives them a 61% chance is clearly a system that needs to be redesigned.
Last time it predicted something, it went 15/16.
I don't think being right 94% of the time needs to be changed.
However, if Microsoft gets only one wrong again with its NFL predictions, please oh please don't be wrong for the Falcons game.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:15 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
precious.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:16 pm to Indfanfromcol
Sorry, I edited my post after reading their take on other games. I agree the system appears sound - just surprised they give Atlanta that much of an edge.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:16 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
Last time it predicted something, it went 15/16.
To be fair though, at least half of the WF knockout games were relatively easy to predict. I think the Vegas favorites won something like 14 out of 16.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:18 pm to SirWinston
Well, you also have to look at the fact that only 4 other games have closer odds.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:18 pm to SirWinston
quote:
The likelihoods are right on IMO pretty much across the board. Except the game that most of us care about the most.
Exactly the reason you don't agree with it. They can't code irrational passion into a model yet. Same reason I have never once bet on an Arkansas game.
FWIW I agree the Saints should be favored.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:18 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Garbage in: Garbage out
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:20 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
FWIW I agree the Saints should be favored.
Honestly, I am very surprised they weren't.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:20 pm to Indfanfromcol
Broncos percentage looks a little high.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:27 pm to Indfanfromcol
Take the highest% 3-5 home teams on a money line parlay?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:28 pm to Indfanfromcol
Picked the Jets in the NFL Survivor this week. I hope that 62.9% is about right.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:28 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Falcons ain't winning.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:33 pm to Indfanfromcol
The falcons absolutely have a great shot at winning. Sean Payton is 13-3 against the Falcons, but they are almost always very close games. Whatever happens, it won't define the season for either team still 15 games to go.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:33 pm to FAF
Cortana is going to come troll post hard here if ATL pulls this out of their arse.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:34 pm to Indfanfromcol
So Atl wins, but so do we? I guess I'll take it.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:40 pm to CRAZY 4 LSU
My honest opinion of this first game, is Saints will win and it will never be close. Then, the second game, it will come to the last possession.
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