The Electoral Battleground--2016 and Beyond

So this talk of Elizabeth Warren being considered a serious contender got thinking about the viability of another real liberal winning a national election. Obama's election, to me, shouldn't have been considered as earth-shaking as it was given the unpopularity of the Bush admin after its second term. His re-election, likewise, wasn't so surprising. His margin in the EC, however, was.

So I brought up the old count to 270 map ( Map) and started tinkering with 2016 possibilities.

BLUF: The Republican party, as it stands, does not seem very strongly positioned for Presidential elections in the near-term. President HW Bush's election in 1988 (28 years gone by the 2016 election) was commanding, with wins in states that are no longer competitive. Since then, the GOP's only successful candidate, President GW Bush, topped out at 285 EVs--literally a one or two state margin in any number of given scenarios. Clinton and Obama won with 370, 379, 365, and 332 for '92, '96, '08, and '12 respectively. Popular votes aside, that seems to imply that democrats enjoy a much more favorable playing field in the EC.

Back to the map. Starting with Obama's performance in 2012 (332 to Romney's 206), I gave a notional GOP candidate every single state I reasonably could--including every state that the GOP has captured at least once since 1988. Using this "perfect" scenario, I'm able to get the GOP candidate up to 296. This leaves the Dems with CA, WA, OR, MI, MN, WI, IL, PA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, NY, and the New England states minus NH. I consider all those save Penn pretty hard wired, with the possible caveat that homecourt advantage could affect some (NJ or WI in the next election, for instance). Excluding homestate candidate disruptions, those states get an average dem candidate within 28 of a victory without breaking a sweat.

To add to that, demographically most of the battlegrounds are trending blue--including VA, FL, NM, NV, and CO (all of which Obama won, but which I gave the notional GOP candidate). Arguments can be made that NC, AZ, and (at the outside) GA are within 2-3 cycles of being real toss-ups.

I know some guys here (like NH and NC) probably still have contact with some movers and shakers within the GOP who may have some interesting insights.

What's everyone's take (aside from throwing up our hands and saying frick this country I'm leaving)? Is a hard run at Hispanics the right play to make--even if it means some unpalatable decisions WRT immigration? New stands on drug laws and certain other social issues? A different approach to packaging the economic message while avoiding language or implications that could turn off single women, Hispanics and other minorities, the working poor, and younger people in general?

How much can the GOP open the tent without losing the voters it already has? How much can they do so and still call themselves Republicans?

Interested in ideas. As I said, this isn't "GOP will never win again" bullshite. It's a recognition that the party seems to be playing with a much smaller margin of error that will make every election a walk along the tightrope unless something shifts in the way the electorate votes.