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Best Guess When it's time to Pull out the Market?

Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:29 pm
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:29 pm
And go to cash.

There's no doubt there will be a correction in the stock market. What signs are you looking for to go ahead and make the move?
Posted by LSUSUPERSTAR
TX
Member since Jan 2005
16312 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:31 pm to
I would play it safe and move everything into Bitcoins.
Posted by brucevilanch
Fort Worth, Tejas
Member since May 2011
24333 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:34 pm to
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

I would play it safe and move everything into Bitcoins.


Since when did the Money Talk board turn into the OT?
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:41 pm to
17000
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:43 pm to
When cab drivers and hotel clerks start giving you stock tips sell.....pronto.

Or, when all the talking heads on CNBC all agree the market will continue to go up, sell.
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

Or, when all the talking heads on CNBC all agree the market will continue to go up, sell.


Not bad advice but not what I was hoping for either. Come on Cuz. I know there is a method to your madness. Care to share?
Posted by StrangeBrew
Salvation Army-Thanks Obama
Member since May 2009
18184 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:47 pm to
Never pull out, reallocate to out of favor sectors or write covered calls to protect yourself from the downside.
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

Never pull out, reallocate to out of favor sectors or write covered calls to protect yourself from the downside.


Thinking about just going to cash. Correction will be between 10-40%.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101436 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:49 pm to
quote:

When cab drivers and hotel clerks start giving you stock tips sell.....pronto.

Or, when all the talking heads on CNBC all agree the market will continue to go up, sell.


Can we count on you here to alert is as to either occurrence?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:51 pm to
Anyone who claims they know when to sell (or when to buy for that matter) before the time arrives is a liar.

I never sell out completely. I'm also never 100% invested either.

Warren Buffett said it best, "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

Can we count on you here to alert is as to either occurrence?


Guys, the Feds are already talking about pulling back in 2015. The election year will be over. Surely there's some indicators the savvy watch?
Posted by StrangeBrew
Salvation Army-Thanks Obama
Member since May 2009
18184 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 9:55 pm to
Ok I will play, what if it is 10% and you are waiting for 40? What is your long term time frame?

I will also add, I can not tell what the future holds but neither can anyone else.

We are getting back to all time high levels but the fed has been printing money for 6 years. A dollar is not the same dollar from previous highs.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:00 pm to
Just rebalance more often if you're afraid of a dip?
Posted by StrangeBrew
Salvation Army-Thanks Obama
Member since May 2009
18184 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:05 pm to
quote:

pulling back in 2015


They have been talking about that for two years, they keep pushing out the date, now it's 2015!

Like the other guy said, rebalance or buy some real estate if you want to diversify or. REIT
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
17690 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

Ok I will play, what if it is 10% and you are waiting for 40? What is your long term time frame?


Just waiting for the correction just to get back in at a lower amount.
quote:


I will also add, I can not tell what the future holds but neither can anyone else.


True, but you know corrections happen and one will show itself sooner rather than later.

quote:

We are getting back to all time high levels but the fed has been printing money for 6 years. A dollar is not the same dollar from previous highs.


Great point. Thanks for your input. Still, it may not be the same dollar but DOW at 17,0000 or 10,000 is a huge difference. That dollar sold today will buy more tomorrow if the correction is that drastic.
Posted by StrangeBrew
Salvation Army-Thanks Obama
Member since May 2009
18184 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

Just waiting for the correction just to get back in at a lower amount.


So you are on the sidelines now? Totally?

If so, how long ago did you get out?
Posted by Zilla
Member since Jul 2005
10599 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:43 pm to
Have you look at the historical P/E levels ?
Posted by smoke4life
Houston
Member since Feb 2006
686 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:26 pm to
Use the cocktail party index:

When you are at a party/get together and average folks are talking about how great their 401k's, investment accounts, returns, can't miss stocks, etc are time start unwinding.

When the talk is opposite of the above, start moving in.

Simple yet effective.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

Never pull out, reallocate to out of favor sectors or write covered calls to protect yourself from the downside.


This is why people lose all of their money.

ETA: Not this strategy, shitty advice.
This post was edited on 7/2/14 at 5:57 am
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