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El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season

Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41536 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.

1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana


To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.

What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!

Posted by BigHoss
Offshore
Member since Apr 2010
3353 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:08 am to
you can not predict future events based on past results
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35346 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to
El Niño is Spanish for...........


















The Niño
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41536 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to
quote:

you can not predict future events based on past results

I'm pretty sure anyone with any meteorological knowledge would disagree with you on this one when it comes to general forecasting of hurricanes.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118670 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:10 am to
How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?
Posted by TheGreat318
West of Bossier
Member since Feb 2012
1256 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:11 am to
Weather threads that aren't started by GeauxMedic make me feel uncomfortable.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought. Either way, as we have seen before in weak seasons all it takes is one (see 1992, 1957)

Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41536 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to
quote:

How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?

your guess is as good as mine
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:13 am to
quote:

El Niño is Spanish for...........
The Niño



El Niño = The Boy
La Niña = The Girl
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:18 am
Posted by B1rdman15
The Office
Member since Feb 2010
5143 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am to
quote:

La Niño = The Girl


Wrong.

La Niña.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:18 am to
quote:

La Niña.



I know, I copied the word to get the "ñ" and forgot to change it.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:20 am to
pretty sure he knew that. he was quoting chris farley.
Posted by BigHoss
Offshore
Member since Apr 2010
3353 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:23 am to
quote:


I'm pretty sure anyone with any meteorological knowledge would disagree with you on this one when it comes to general forecasting of hurricanes.



yeah, because they are so accurate when it comes to predicting named storms and landfalls
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
22062 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:25 am to
I'll always remember Lili because when it was way offshore as a Cat1, we gathered up at the in-laws outside of Lafayette and started the old hurricane party. Just hours later (and a ton of drinks), it strengthened to a 5, and we were asked by the fire department to evacuate because of worries the Vermilion River would swamp us. It was quite an eventful drive from Laffy to other relatives, blitzed and having to stop and piss about every 10 minutes.
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8621 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:31 am to
quote:

it strengthened to a 5,


Nope
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
33376 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:33 am to
Lilli weakend before landfall man not the other way around
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
22062 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am to
quote:

Nope


4 then. Close enough.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
33376 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am to
Wrong again

Eta: I think I see what you're saying now
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:37 am
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
22062 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:36 am to
quote:

Wrong again


Mmmm k.

LINK
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
33376 posts
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:38 am to
Yra I edited. I understand what you're getting at now
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