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Reviving the CHC Thread | CHC @ CIN | 6:10 CT | Great American Ballpark
Posted on 4/28/14 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 4/28/14 at 12:43 pm
Cubs are getting calls on their top three pitchers already.
Here's the thing on Hammel--his BABIP is 0.138. Rather, he's been "lucky". Now, I sometimes don't get this BABIP metric...his WHIP is 0.69 and he's not walking people. So, the contact being made is going to outs, mostly. I guess a mean BABIP is 0.300 or so? So either he's doing what he's supposed to be doing, he's really lucky, or both.
Anyway, if the Cubs do sell on Hammel they should do it while the iron is hot. He's 32...I don't think the Cubs are going to hold on. He has a 1 year, $6M deal for 2014.
Jake Arrieta should be returning from his rehab work soon to take Villanueva's spot in the rotation, hopefully forever.
Here's the thing on Hammel--his BABIP is 0.138. Rather, he's been "lucky". Now, I sometimes don't get this BABIP metric...his WHIP is 0.69 and he's not walking people. So, the contact being made is going to outs, mostly. I guess a mean BABIP is 0.300 or so? So either he's doing what he's supposed to be doing, he's really lucky, or both.
Anyway, if the Cubs do sell on Hammel they should do it while the iron is hot. He's 32...I don't think the Cubs are going to hold on. He has a 1 year, $6M deal for 2014.
Jake Arrieta should be returning from his rehab work soon to take Villanueva's spot in the rotation, hopefully forever.
5
Posted on 4/28/14 at 12:56 pm to The Sad Banana
Hey friend, just wanted to pop in and say I am sorry for your loss
Keep your head up
Keep your head up
Posted on 4/28/14 at 12:57 pm to The Sad Banana
quote:
Jake Arrieta should be returning from his rehab work soon to take Villanueva's spot in the rotation, hopefully forever.
Please God don't let Villanueva make another start. I think he will, but I hope he doesn't.
quote:
his BABIP is 0.138.
This is usually a stat of luck. I was reading a book about a big time baseball gambler and he thinks this stat is overrated. He says pitchers have no control over how a hitter hits the ball and where it goes once it is hit. True to a certain extent.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:00 pm to The Sad Banana
Maybe Shark can actually get a win tonight.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:01 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I think it has some merit in that the pitcher is getting "lucky", but it should not discredit his performance entirely. I think it would be reasonable to say, considering Hammel's WHIP, that he's pitching well and the low BABiP is indicative of him mostly pitching well and being about 20% lucky.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:05 pm to The Sad Banana
I agree. His WHIP is great and he has actually been getting a decent amount of strikeouts. I think he had 7 yesterday. I would strike while the iron is hot with him as one would assume he is going to regress back to the mean at some point this season.
I still don't get why the Cubs don't intend on extended Samardzija. If we can get an organizations top pitching prospect for him so be it, but still don't 100% understand it.
I don't think there is any chance we ship Wood off.
I still don't get why the Cubs don't intend on extended Samardzija. If we can get an organizations top pitching prospect for him so be it, but still don't 100% understand it.
I don't think there is any chance we ship Wood off.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:09 pm to The Sad Banana
quote:
Here's the thing on Hammel--his BABIP is 0.138. Rather, he's been "lucky". Now, I sometimes don't get this BABIP metric...his WHIP is 0.69 and he's not walking people. So, the contact being made is going to outs, mostly. I guess a mean BABIP is 0.300 or so? So either he's doing what he's supposed to be doing, he's really lucky, or both.
It basically means that he has been really lucky. A BABIP of .138 is unsustainable, and you're right, mean should be around .300, so he should trend toward that number as the season goes on.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:12 pm to LSUBoo
Sustainability...that's the key word. I would not expect that to be the case for him to have a 0.138 BABiP for the year. But if he does regress but keeps his BABiP under 0.300 and his WHIP moves to 1.00, that would be one hell of a deal for one year and $6M.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:18 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
He says pitchers have no control over how a hitter hits the ball and where it goes once it is hit. True to a certain extent.
I know it's extremely rare, but I wonder how many people would've looked at Greg maddux circa 1988-1990 and said, "well, he's getting extremely lucky, his BABIP will regress and he'll be a #3/#4 guy in the rotation." I know Maddux had a few K's, but he was a pitch to contact guy a lot of the time. I do think the pitcher can control how hittable a ball is (obviously) thus leading to weak contact, which is obviously better than line drive or hard contact. In that sense, he does have some control over how a hitter hits the ball and where it goes.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:20 pm to The Sad Banana
quote:
Cubs are getting calls on their top three pitchers already.
Hopefully they'll continue to pitch well, and they'll get some bidding wars going. With the possible exception of Wood, and that's probably a remote possibility, none of these guys will be around when this team is ready to compete.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:20 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
I still don't get why the Cubs don't intend on extended Samardzija. If we can get an organizations top pitching prospect for him so be it, but still don't 100% understand it.
they should've extended him mid-late last year to get him for cheaper. He's gonna have a great year this year and the price will shoot WAAAAY up.
I mean, I know Shark didn't look like an ace last year and other years, but the guy has been durable (knock on wood) and has tremendous peripherals. He could be the Cubs Wainwright when they get ready to contend- Mr. Reliable.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:22 pm to medtiger
quote:
With the possible exception of Wood, and that's probably a remote possibility, none of these guys will be around when this team is ready to compete.
Yup. Hammel should be shipped off. wood and Shark should stay. Cubs are dumb if they dont' extend Shark unless they're able to pull a top 5 prospect and an arm for him.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:23 pm to Moustache
I agree to a certain extent, but after I read it I started thinking about it more. Yes a pitcher can control where the pitch goes, but even if a perfect pitch is made it could still get hard or it could get flicked off the end of the bat and could be a blooper for a hit or could beat a pull shift etc etc. Greg Maddux sustained those great BABiP numbers though, so one could say he wasn't going to regress towards the .300 though. He was a very rare exception to the rule. I do certainly think there is some merit to the fact that a lot of cluster luck is involved with BABiP and somewhat out of the control of the pitcher.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:24 pm to Moustache
Greg Maddux's career BABIP is 0.281. To compare, Clemens was 0.284, Randy Johnson was 0.291, Roy Halladay was 0.292 and Pedro Martinez was 0.279.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:26 pm to medtiger
quote:
With the possible exception of Wood, and that's probably a remote possibility, none of these guys will be around when this team is ready to compete.
Wood is under the Cubs control through 2016. I think by all accounts the Cubs should be ready to be competitive by 2016 given where the farm system is at. Now throw in a top pitching prospect for Samardzija and another pitching prospect and maybe a pitching prospect for Hammel and 2 years of free agent market. Wood should be around when the Cubs are competitive, which is the reason he more than likely won't be moved.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:26 pm to Moustache
quote:
Cubs are dumb if they dont' extend Shark
This is a two way street. Shark has shown very little interest in signing an extension.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:27 pm to The Sad Banana
quote:
Greg Maddux's career BABIP is 0.281. To compare, Clemens was 0.284, Randy Johnson was 0.291, Roy Halladay was 0.292 and Pedro Martinez was 0.279.
These guys were all some of the best pitchers of the last decade and they still reverted somewhat near that .300 mark.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:28 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I guess I was trying to say that Maddux wasn't necessarily an exception among his peers.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:29 pm to medtiger
quote:
Shark has shown very little interest in signing an extension.
The guy has definitely said that he would like to sign a long term deal with the Cubs. He also wants to win.
He isn't going to give the Cubs a hometown discount. The Cubs haven't shown him they can win yet. They have traded other veteran pitcher that he has played with. If the Cubs decide to offer him a long contract worth a lot of money I think he would be willing to sign with them.
Posted on 4/28/14 at 1:29 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
the Cubs should be ready to be competitive by 2016
I think that's being optimistic. I agree that 2016 could be when they become competitive if most of their prospects turn out to be good players, and they get this revenue stream stuff sorted out in a timely manner to allow them to sign the free agents they need to fill holes. But, I'm not terribly optimistic that everything will happen like that.
I do agree that Wood will stick around unless someone really wants to overpay for him in a trade.
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