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Message
If Carter's Hostage Rescue Mission Had Succeeded . . . .
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:38 am
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:38 am
1) Would he have been reelected?
2) Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran?
3) If you answered yes to #1, would Reagan have ever been elected President?
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been?
2) Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran?
3) If you answered yes to #1, would Reagan have ever been elected President?
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been?
16
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:39 am to trackfan
Maybe if he sent the Entebbe people ...
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:45 am to JEAUXBLEAUX
quote:
Maybe if he sent the Entebbe people ...
Or Seal Team 6, but let's get back to the questions in the OP.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:46 am to trackfan
Nah, it was the economy stupid.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:48 am to trackfan
quote:
Would he have been reelected?
No. Inflation and unemployment were horrible. Had nothing to do with Iran.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:49 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Nah, it was the economy stupid.
What about question #2?
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:50 am to trackfan
1. No
2. Yes
2. Yes
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:50 am to trackfan
With double digit inflation and interest rates Jimmy was never going to be reelected.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:51 am to trackfan
quote:
What about question #2?
Yes. I'm not sure how that would have changed anything as to the current "relationship." What are you speculating?
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:51 am to trackfan
quote:
1) Would he have been reelected?
No. Economy was terrible, gas prices high. Hostage foul up was just the icing on the cake.
quote:
2) Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran?
yes
quote:
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been?
same
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:53 am to Y.A. Tittle
There is little doubt that Carter's presidency would've been viewed differently. Also, one has to wonder how gun shy this made Carter to do other things.
It is an interesting question, but at the end of the day, I don't think Carter really had what was needed for a president. Carter was a good man. That is not what makes a good president.
Clinton, who is not a good man, was a good president.
I wonder how things would have ended up had that plan worked. While I doubt it would have changed his economic policy much or for that matter his political dealings, but the increased confidence could have changed some of these things.
It is an interesting question, but at the end of the day, I don't think Carter really had what was needed for a president. Carter was a good man. That is not what makes a good president.
Clinton, who is not a good man, was a good president.
I wonder how things would have ended up had that plan worked. While I doubt it would have changed his economic policy much or for that matter his political dealings, but the increased confidence could have changed some of these things.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:53 am to Zach
quote:
No. Inflation and unemployment were horrible. Had nothing to do with Iran.
Perhaps Carter would have still been defeated for the reason you stated, but I think you're being disingenuous when you imply that he wasn't hurt politically by the Iranian hostage crisis. Also, he would have definitely gotten a bump if the mission had succeeded, considering the fact that it took place only six months before the election.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:54 am to DR Hops
quote:
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been?
I believe the USSR would have been ar ound much longer. Reagan greatly contributed to the demise of the Soviet Union by forcing them to attempt to keep pace with our enormous defense spending.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:57 am to thetempleowl
quote:
There is little doubt that Carter's presidency would've been viewed differently. Also, one has to wonder how gun shy this made Carter to do other things.
Didn't the rescue attempt thing happen pretty much at the tail end of his presidency? How many things was he really held back from doing due to being "gun shy" because of that bungled incident?
Posted on 4/17/14 at 11:58 am to trackfan
quote:
Also, he would have definitely gotten a bump if the mission had succeeded
His legacy would have been less tarnished had the rescue mission succeeded. However, his reelection hopes were never going to be realized.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 12:11 pm to trackfan
quote:Not likely given the economy.
Would he have been reelected?
quote:Yes, the Iranian clerics who control the country would not have been replaced, and they are the cause of poor relations.
Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran?
quote:Reagan would have won the 1980 Republican primaries with or without the hostage rescue mission succeeding. He would likely have beaten Carter on economic issues, and Carter's foreign policies were not popular independent of the Iranian hostage rescue failure. The Panama Canal was a significant issue with voters.
If you answered yes to #1, would Reagan have ever been elected President?
quote:Not much. The U.S. military would have made the improvements of the 1980's one way or another. And those improvements forced the Soviets to try and keep up which they could not afford to do. Margaret Thatcher would have been on hand to provide guidance and support to the President, and her significance in the demise of the Soviet Union should not be discounted.
How different would American-Soviet relations have been?
Posted on 4/17/14 at 12:18 pm to trackfan
A Gallup poll had Carter up by three points over Reagan two weeks before the election
LINK
What happened between that poll and the election was the only debate between Reagan and Carter, during which Reagan asked the rhetorical question, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
After that, the election swung to Reagan, who won by 10 percentage points.
LINK
What happened between that poll and the election was the only debate between Reagan and Carter, during which Reagan asked the rhetorical question, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
After that, the election swung to Reagan, who won by 10 percentage points.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 12:41 pm to wilfont
quote:
However, his reelection hopes were never going to be realized.
I wouldn't characterize it that way. Initially, Carter got a bump in the polls when the Iranian took the hostages, similar to W's post-9/11 bump. In February 1980, Carter was leading Reagan 60-31 in the polls. Carter was no doubt being hurt by the economy, but his numbers only started free-falling after the rescue mission failed, and rightly or wrongly, he got blamed for the disaster.
LINK
Also, let's not forget that Obama was also being hurt by a bad economy in 2012, but fortunately for him, his Osama bin Laden raid didn't end in disaster.
Posted on 4/17/14 at 12:44 pm to trackfan
1) Would he have been reelected? No.
2) Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran? Yes.
3) If you answered yes to #1, would Reagan have ever been elected President? Highly unlikely
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been? Not significantly, because #1 is No
2) Would the U.S. still be at odds with Iran? Yes.
3) If you answered yes to #1, would Reagan have ever been elected President? Highly unlikely
4) How different would American-Soviet relations have been? Not significantly, because #1 is No
This post was edited on 4/17/14 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 4/17/14 at 12:49 pm to trackfan
quote:
let's not forget that Obama was also being hurt by a bad economy in 2012
Carter didn't have the same fawning media in 1980 willing to provide him shelter from the storm that Obama had in 2012.
As someone else pointed out, it was Reagan asking the American people if they were better off today then they were four years ago that turned the election. 1980 was more about buying houses at a double digit interest rates then hostages. I seriously don't believe carter ever had a chance to be reelected.
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