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Pass/Run Ratio

Posted on 4/11/14 at 11:23 am
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/11/14 at 11:23 am
It is some pretty amazing numbers on how the run/pass ratio reflects the success of the Saints since 2006. I do not think ya can say that just running more will equal success but ya cannot deny that it reflects it.

Year P/R Ratio Finish
2006 55/45 1st NFCCG
2007 62/38 3rd
2008 62/38 4th
2009 53/47 1st SB champ
2010 64/36 2nd WC loss
2011 61/39 1st Div Rd
2012 65/35 3rd
2013 63/37 2nd

The highest reaching years ('06, '09) are the only ones where the pass ratio was under 60%.

Sean Payton Part II, Master of the Ground n Pound
This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 1:14 pm
Posted by s-man
Benton
Member since Jan 2005
1358 posts
Posted on 4/11/14 at 11:44 am to
I think you have it backwards. It looks like it should be P/R not R/P
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41199 posts
Posted on 4/11/14 at 11:47 am to
quote:

. I do not think ya can say that just running more will equal success but ya cannot deny that it reflects it.


But you can say that success leads to running the ball more. When teams are winning games they tend to run out the clock in the 4th quarter more often than teams that are trailing.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
64366 posts
Posted on 4/11/14 at 11:50 am to
We sure ran a lot in 2013 Blu
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

We sure ran a lot in 2013

the R/P?
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 1:12 pm to
We also finished 2nd in the division last year, not first. I mean we should have finished 1st.

But really, this isn't about just commitment to the run game. In 2006 with Deuce it was, but in 2009 we ran a ton more because we were so far up in quite a few games so it skewed the numbers.

I'd love a more even ratio, but we have had to win many games passing and if that's the case this year again I'll take it. Whatever the situation calls for.

I think the more important thing is to stick to the run early whether it is working or not, then see where we are after half time and adjust. If we could have r/p 45/55 in the first half I'll take it, but the second half is about what will win the game.
This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 1:18 pm
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 1:14 pm to
fixed, makes the case for more running all the clearer
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 1:22 pm to
Spin off thread idea, would taking a legit power runner 1st or 2nd round in the draft actually be better than taking a WR in the 1st or 2nd?

When we had Deuce we had our best run game by far aside from the skewed super bowl year. It would help with closing out games, making getting 1st downs easier, and the play action game and may be a better investment with Brees heading into his twilight.

And this is likely to be Ingram's last year and PT and him are not power rushers(and PT is getting older). Robinson has shown flashes of it so maybe he can fill that role, but maybe getting a guy that could definitely fill it would be better.
This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 1:24 pm
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:00 pm to
Can't see 1st or 2nd just for the general devaluation of RBs.

I think it'll be an Ingram-Robinson workhorse tandem. Take their stats the last 4 games and extrapolate them to 16. That's my projection.

More likely than a power back I could see a Sproles type of scat back drafted. There are quite a few good options at different round levels for that this year. I mocked Devonta Freeman to the Saints.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

Can't see 1st or 2nd just for the general devaluation of RBs.
Not true for every team, and my scenario is based on getting back to a power run game like when we had Deuce.

Everyone assumes that from now on no HBs will be taken in the first and I disagree with that, and there will definitely be a couple taken in the 2nd.

quote:

Robinson workhorse
This is where I see the argument for NOT doing it. This isn't about good running like with a combo of Ingram and Robinson. This is about power running and pushing the pile like we had with Deuce, Ivory(when healthy), and maybe Robinson.

Maybe Robinson takes looking at a power runner out of the equation. I'd still like to get someone dominant like Deuce was though.

quote:

More likely than a power back I could see a Sproles type of scat back drafted.
No bearing on my scenario. It wasn't about what we may be lacking and might go for. It was about whether we should get a power runner or not.
Posted by Hoodoo Man
Sunshine Pumping most days.
Member since Oct 2011
31637 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

Maybe Robinson takes looking at a power runner out of the equation. I'd still like to get someone dominant like Deuce was though.

Talk about luxury.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:13 pm to


I'd be giddy as a baby getting their arse wiped if Robinson became THE back on our team and showed he could be even 85% of Deuce.

That is the one flaw in the drafting a power back scenario. I admit it is a big one and was just a talking point and not something I'm saying we SHOULD do.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

No bearing on my scenario. It wasn't about what we may be lacking and might go for. It was about whether we should get a power runner or not.

Bearing in that if part of their draft day goals was to get a scatback then the likelihood of drafting another power runner is diminished.

I believe that story that Parcells told Payton he had Curtis Martin sitting there and he wasn't using him. We haven't had a RB with 200+ carries since Deuce in 2006. It might not be possible with a heavy Ingram-Robinson grind load. 300 carries between them is certainly an attainable goal.

To accomplish that we'd prolly see going with the hot hand (or legs), rotate halves, etc. However it is accomplished, we'll still see the Payton massive player rotations but waaaay less with the RBs.

Here's one to look up- Most 100 yard rushing games by individual RBs in the Payton era? Good odds we might see a new high in this- whatever it is.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

Bearing in that if part of their draft day goals was to get a scatback then the likelihood of drafting another power runner is diminished.
Okay yeah I see that, but still different roles. As I said though, it was more a talking point and not a suggestion.

And no offense to Ingram as I'd like to see him do well, but I'd prefer if Robinson won out in that battle. He's younger, runs more to the style I like to see, and is still under contract a few years into the future.

Meanwhile, if Ingram does poorly he's gone, and if he does too good he may be gone.
This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 2:32 pm
Posted by Hoodoo Man
Sunshine Pumping most days.
Member since Oct 2011
31637 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

He's younger,
They're actually the same age, somehow.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:44 pm to
Liar. Ingram is a whole week older.

Damn I guess I just assumed Robinson was 22 coming in. He's younger in carries age anyway.
Posted by Hoodoo Man
Sunshine Pumping most days.
Member since Oct 2011
31637 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

He's younger in carries age anyway
Yeah, I'm sure he hasn't been run into the ground as much as Saban ensures his players are.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

Yeah, I'm sure he hasn't been run into the ground as much as Saban ensures his players are.
From what I found, Ingram had 572 college carries and Robinson had at least 312(can't find the Blinn statistics but did see he played SS so that explains his willingness to plow into and though people).

This was pretty good too:
Robinson Blinn Highlights
This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 3:03 pm
Posted by Geauxgurt
Member since Sep 2013
10460 posts
Posted on 4/13/14 at 6:08 pm to
I think the thing in both 2006 and 2009 was that if the Saints needed to run, they were able to do that consistently. The ratio is definitely important, but realistically what was more important was being able to move the ball on the ground when the team wanted to.

Honestly, I like the backs we have, but wouldn't mind a legit powerback like Carlos Hyde or maybe even a Jeremy Hill with our 2nd or 3rd pick if available. They bring a lot to the game, and we may lose/get rid of PT and Ingram after this coming season anyhow.

Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 4/14/14 at 4:58 pm to
it's kinda chicken n egg. If the run game is rolling well ala '06 & '09 then the ratio will reflect that. They could pick up one but I would be surprised at 1-3 Rd unless it was a killer value.

Plenty of good RBs later in the NFL now. A few here with their draft spot-

Eddie Lacy 61
Lamar Miller 97
Alfred Morris 173
Demarco Murray 71
Stevan Ridley 73
Ben Tate 58
James Stark 193
LaSean McCoy 53
Rashad Jennings 250
Ray Rice 55
Jamaal Charles 73
Peyton Hillis 227
Leon Washington 117
Frank Gore 65
Michael Turner 154
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