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Bill Gates - Massive Unemployment Coming from Automation
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:24 pm
Bill Gates on Automation
he is right about that. Economist had an article on it a few months ago.
Economist
I think its pretty safe to say that this is going to be a massive disruption. As the expression goes idle hands are the devil's workshop.
What can and should gov't do to prepare for this?
Personally I think Bill Gates prescriptions about not raising the min wage won't do much, as automation is often times much cheaper than human labor already.
This is what I would suggest...
- Phase in a negative income tax, where if you make less than X, then you get $$ to bring you up to a level. Also called basic income guarantee. This will stop people from being crushed by unemployment but only works if you get rid of other welfare.
- Stop taxing income, instead tax consumption. Give people more of a reason to work.
- Focus publicly funded higher education on hard topics such as math, engineering, etc. i.e. cut english programs to the basics to support STEM fields.
- Stop future workers from being born, i.e. encourage birth control for everyone
But reality is even this isn't going to do much. This is going to blow our world up, especially in combination social media and person to person conversations.
quote:
“Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… it’s progressing,” Gates said. “Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”
he is right about that. Economist had an article on it a few months ago.
Economist
I think its pretty safe to say that this is going to be a massive disruption. As the expression goes idle hands are the devil's workshop.
What can and should gov't do to prepare for this?
Personally I think Bill Gates prescriptions about not raising the min wage won't do much, as automation is often times much cheaper than human labor already.
This is what I would suggest...
- Phase in a negative income tax, where if you make less than X, then you get $$ to bring you up to a level. Also called basic income guarantee. This will stop people from being crushed by unemployment but only works if you get rid of other welfare.
- Stop taxing income, instead tax consumption. Give people more of a reason to work.
- Focus publicly funded higher education on hard topics such as math, engineering, etc. i.e. cut english programs to the basics to support STEM fields.
- Stop future workers from being born, i.e. encourage birth control for everyone
But reality is even this isn't going to do much. This is going to blow our world up, especially in combination social media and person to person conversations.
This post was edited on 3/17/14 at 2:25 pm
18
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:26 pm to Hawkeye95
The Luddites were right!
This post was edited on 3/17/14 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:31 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
Massive Unemployment Coming from Automation
I've been saying this for a while. Our unemployment has no where to go but up since we've shipped basically all our manufacturing plants overseas and down south.
If the government and big business don't figure out a way to get jobs back in the states then the blue collar workers will continue to fade out.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:32 pm to Hawkeye95
Who knows, I'm sure the same thing was said when the printing press was invented, and so on.
Maybe we are finally hitting that inflection point where technology actually is destroying jobs, or maybe not.
Maybe we are finally hitting that inflection point where technology actually is destroying jobs, or maybe not.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:33 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
I've been saying this for a while. Our unemployment has no where to go but up since we've shipped basically all our manufacturing plants overseas and down south.
If the government and big business don't figure out a way to get jobs back in the states then the blue collar workers will continue to fade out.
I think bill gates goes further and says that even those jobs shipped out will disappear.
Can you imagine the disruption in china if those mfg jobs start disappearing? YIKES.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:33 pm to Hawkeye95
I think we will see a shift in resources. 30 years ago, we didn't have pc's. We also didn't have Starbucks coffee or the massive amounts of video games we have now.
Computers eliminated the need for a typing pool, for example. Killed off most of the mainframe industry, too. Of course, a huge market for people to fix PC's and write software for PC's was created. I'm not going to try to draw a direct correlation between the computer and the Starbucks, but I'm sure we'll find things to keep people working...
Computers eliminated the need for a typing pool, for example. Killed off most of the mainframe industry, too. Of course, a huge market for people to fix PC's and write software for PC's was created. I'm not going to try to draw a direct correlation between the computer and the Starbucks, but I'm sure we'll find things to keep people working...
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:35 pm to Jax-Tiger
Clearly we need to open our borders and pass amnesty to cure this
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:36 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Who knows, I'm sure the same thing was said when the printing press was invented, and so on.
Maybe we are finally hitting that inflection point where technology actually is destroying jobs, or maybe not.
I think its the speed of change that is the problem. if we had decades and decades to adjust as with previous technologies, it wouldn't be as acute of a problem. But this could happen in 10, 15 years.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:37 pm to Hawkeye95
He as usual is FOS.
High unemployment is coming because of this sorry azz presidents crap policies.
High unemployment is coming because of this sorry azz presidents crap policies.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:39 pm to Jax-Tiger
While doing yard work yesterday with my 5 year old son, I was trying to think of what industry I should prepare him for. Robotics was my initial thinking. So mechanical or electrical engineering. Although I'd also like him to understand very basic maintenance for small engines and repairs around the house because I could see the need for people in the future to go off the grid.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 2:53 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
I think its pretty safe to say that this is going to be a massive disruption.
We have been saying that since robotics were introduced to manufacturing more than 20 years ago. Other industries and opportunities are created because of automation.
quote:
What can and should gov't do to prepare for this?
Get the frick out of the way and allow the free markets to find a solution. Government has never been good at finding a solution to any complex problem. Look at Europe with all of their creative rules to try and make things better, end up making them less competitive and end up having negative effects on the economy.
quote:
as automation is often times much cheaper than human labor already.
I would modify that statement: It's often cheaper in the long term, but most businesses live off of short-term cash and don't have the capital to really invest in automation.
quote:
Phase in a negative income tax, where if you make less than X, then you get $$ to bring you up to a level. Also called basic income guarantee. This will stop people from being crushed by unemployment but only works if you get rid of other welfare
1) You'll never get rid of other welfare
2) You will only subsidize people who will pay more money to businesses that are automating, ending up financing their automation with government funds.
quote:
- Stop taxing income, instead tax consumption. Give people more of a reason to work.
I've thought about this before. How do you get around the disincentive to spend? Currency systems are based off of GDP, you would be causing the GDP to nosedive.
quote:
- Focus publicly funded higher education on hard topics such as math, engineering, etc. i.e. cut english programs to the basics to support STEM fields.
Good luck getting rid of the programs that seek to educate people on the mating habits of lesbian stinkfish. Will never happen.
quote:
- Stop future workers from being born, i.e. encourage birth control for everyone
Surely you jest.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:00 pm to S.E.C. Crazy
quote:
He as usual is FOS.
High unemployment is coming because of this sorry azz presidents crap policies.
Idiot.
Automation has been taking jobs from the force for decades now. This is nothing new.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:12 pm to Hawkeye95
The middle class shrinks as people lose ownership of production (labor).
Eventually when it's Star Trek level tech, you'll have to just share or else devolve into some section 9-like dystopian future.
Eventually when it's Star Trek level tech, you'll have to just share or else devolve into some section 9-like dystopian future.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:20 pm to Asgard Device
Thanks eObama
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:24 pm to Hawkeye95
Matrix
Can I get a Keanu Reeves "whoa"
Can I get a Keanu Reeves "whoa"
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:25 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
Automation has been taking jobs from the force for decades now. This is nothing new.
Your right, but Gate is alluding towards the speed of jobs disappearing moving forward.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:43 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
Eventually when it's Star Trek level tech, you'll have to just share or else devolve into some section 9-like dystopian future.
Yes, the future could look something like Iain Banks "Culture" series of books where man is free to do what he wants, when he wants, and robots just assist.
Or we could end up in a scenario like in margaret atwoods oryx and crake.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:49 pm to Hawkeye95
Which is about the same time we run out of much of our energy sources. So it balances out in the end
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:50 pm to Hawkeye95
people are naive if they think increased efficiency of automation will somehow still require the same amount of manpower.
If your robots simply replaced menial jobs with robotics techs and engineers then how is that more efficient.
efficiency will be replacing 1000 menial jobs with 100 techs and then replacing 100 techs with 10 techs and so on.
If your robots simply replaced menial jobs with robotics techs and engineers then how is that more efficient.
efficiency will be replacing 1000 menial jobs with 100 techs and then replacing 100 techs with 10 techs and so on.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 3:50 pm to Hawkeye95
Whew!!! No more job lock. Look out poetry world.
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