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Why transition to a heavier run game?
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:39 am
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:39 am
Not science but kinda interesting note on the Payton era... Total team rushing yards, record, year
2127 13-3 2011 lost in divisional round
2106 13-3 2009 Super Bowl champ
1761 10-6 2006 lost NFC championship
1594 8-8 2008 no playoffs
1577 7-9 2012 no playoffs
1519 11-5 2010 lost wildcard rd
1473 11-5 2013 lost in divisional round
1466 7-9 2007 no playoffs
The two 13-3 seasons stick out boldly. 500-600 yds more than the other 6 seasons. As much as the yards it is the carries too. Commitment to the run game that defenses have to respect. The evidence by run/pass ratio might be even clearer than the rushing yards if someone wants to do the work. THIS is what I think Payton realizes and is gearing up for a more thorough commitment to it. He talked it last year but obviously it didn't happen.
I think the last three games by Ingram and Robinson foretell 2014. Their totals last 3 games-
64 carries 312 yds
divide by 3 games= 21 carries 104yds avg
take that x 16 games in 2014
= a total of 336 carries & 1664 yds
Either of them grinding good enough could end up being the first Saints RB since Deuce in '06 to have over 200 carries. Add some PT23 & Cadet and the rush total might again be over that magic 2100yds mark.
2127 13-3 2011 lost in divisional round
2106 13-3 2009 Super Bowl champ
1761 10-6 2006 lost NFC championship
1594 8-8 2008 no playoffs
1577 7-9 2012 no playoffs
1519 11-5 2010 lost wildcard rd
1473 11-5 2013 lost in divisional round
1466 7-9 2007 no playoffs
The two 13-3 seasons stick out boldly. 500-600 yds more than the other 6 seasons. As much as the yards it is the carries too. Commitment to the run game that defenses have to respect. The evidence by run/pass ratio might be even clearer than the rushing yards if someone wants to do the work. THIS is what I think Payton realizes and is gearing up for a more thorough commitment to it. He talked it last year but obviously it didn't happen.
I think the last three games by Ingram and Robinson foretell 2014. Their totals last 3 games-
64 carries 312 yds
divide by 3 games= 21 carries 104yds avg
take that x 16 games in 2014
= a total of 336 carries & 1664 yds
Either of them grinding good enough could end up being the first Saints RB since Deuce in '06 to have over 200 carries. Add some PT23 & Cadet and the rush total might again be over that magic 2100yds mark.
7
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:42 am to blueslover
nice post! i was aware of the discrepancies in the yard totals but it is pretty eye opening to see them down on "paper"...I can't argue with the change in offensive philosophy. With Drew getting older, we'll rely less on his arm and it will open up the passing game more for bigger, down the field plays. That was one thing we lacked severely last year with the exception of a few Kenny Stills bombs.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:43 am to blueslover
I'm sure it's all about balance and whatever works
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:44 am to blueslover
It's crazy that in the year we've rushed the most under the Payton era, Brees also three for over 5,400 yards. Jesus that offense was nuts and why even though manning broke it this past year, I still say that 2011 offense was more balanced and effective than theirs.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:47 am to Brettesaurus Rex
I dont think we are transitioning all that much. We will still be a pass first offense, as we were in 2009 and 2011. Could be the main reason those totals are so different, is that we were winning alot allowing us to run alot more, crazy thought i know
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:47 am to blueslover
Great post.
Yeah, it was clear to everyone (except CSP seemingly) last season that more carries spelled more success.
I really want a good center.
Yeah, it was clear to everyone (except CSP seemingly) last season that more carries spelled more success.
I really want a good center.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 11:58 am to blueslover
I brought this up before in a different thread but I guess it got lost in the trolling that followed by Sunday Tiger.
Rushing Importance
Although I did refer to it as science
ETA: The stat that stands out the most is that in 2011 we failed to rush for 100 yards 5 times. 4 of those 5 times were our only losses (including SF). The only exception was one win vs Atlanta.
Rushing Importance
quote:
Not science but kinda interesting note on the Payton era
Although I did refer to it as science
ETA: The stat that stands out the most is that in 2011 we failed to rush for 100 yards 5 times. 4 of those 5 times were our only losses (including SF). The only exception was one win vs Atlanta.
This post was edited on 3/15/14 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 3/15/14 at 12:05 pm to blueslover
Attempts and yards are important, but so is efficiency. Football Outsiders' DVOA measures that, and as the name implies, it is adjusted for opponent and situation.
2013: -5.3%, 19th in the league.
2012: 1.6%, 11th
2011: 18.5%, 2nd
2010: -8.1%, 21st
2009: 14.6%, 1st
2008: 3.9%, 10th
2007: -3.4%, 18th
2006: 5.2%, 10th
2012 had other issues, as did 2008 (last year with Gibbs as DC).
Our formula needs to include running efficiently, and we will have an offense good enough to get us to the playoffs. We should have won another in 2011, which should show people that once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. But you have to get there first...
2013: -5.3%, 19th in the league.
2012: 1.6%, 11th
2011: 18.5%, 2nd
2010: -8.1%, 21st
2009: 14.6%, 1st
2008: 3.9%, 10th
2007: -3.4%, 18th
2006: 5.2%, 10th
2012 had other issues, as did 2008 (last year with Gibbs as DC).
Our formula needs to include running efficiently, and we will have an offense good enough to get us to the playoffs. We should have won another in 2011, which should show people that once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. But you have to get there first...
Posted on 3/15/14 at 12:10 pm to Sophandros
quote:
Our formula needs to include running efficiently, and we will have an offense good enough to get us to the playoffs. We should have won another in 2011, which should show people that once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. But you have to get there first.
It also didn't help that we only ran for 37 yards in the Frisco loss. That and a -4 turnover differential.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 12:12 pm to Sophandros
cool find Soph. The '09 & '11 years stand out all the more there- 1st & 2nd vs. 10th to 21st yrs.
One of the things I like most about Payton is that he isn't afraid of change. In fact, he demands it when his vision or goals aren't coming to fruition. I appreciate his comments this past year that he realized how much fault was on his play calling. I sense a determination to capture the dominance of those '09 & '11 offenses- and that he clearly has a plan of how to do it.
One of the things I like most about Payton is that he isn't afraid of change. In fact, he demands it when his vision or goals aren't coming to fruition. I appreciate his comments this past year that he realized how much fault was on his play calling. I sense a determination to capture the dominance of those '09 & '11 offenses- and that he clearly has a plan of how to do it.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 4:49 pm to blueslover
For us, a positive run DVOA is going to be good enough for us to get to the playoffs because we have a Hall of Fame Quarterback. Getting a positive run DVOA means that we are in the top half of the league in that category. When you have a Hall of Fame Quarterback, that is enough to make the playoffs.
Once you get there, it's a crapshoot, but if your defense and/or QB is elite, you have a better chance of advancing.
Once you get there, it's a crapshoot, but if your defense and/or QB is elite, you have a better chance of advancing.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 5:15 pm to blueslover
quote:
I think the last three games by Ingram and Robinson foretell 2014
hope so.
but I think the eagles were leaving the door open for the Saints to run it on them because they didn't really respect our ground game. Even as the game went on, they didn't seem to make that many adjustments which kinda led me to believe their game plan focused more on trying to stop our passing game which they didn't do a horrible job of. But the Saints ability to run the ball and playing tough defense all night were the difference.
against Seattle, we had another shot and I'm sure they knew that we'd have to try and run it early and often. I mean, they aren't the type of defense you can just pass, pass, and pass on. Plus, that was one area of their defense that was a little vulnerable seems like.
This post was edited on 3/15/14 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 3/15/14 at 6:02 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
quote:
It's crazy that in the year we've rushed the most under the Payton era, Brees also three for over 5,400 yards. Jesus that offense was nuts and why even though manning broke it this past year, I still say that 2011 offense was more balanced and effective than theirs.
Tldr version: I'm an eyeball test kind of guy, stats lie sometimes. We weren't as committed to the run as we need to be in the future. And Khiry Robinson needs a nickname.
While I totally agree, part of me thinks some of the stats are skewed. We weren't as balanced (run/pass ratio) as the stats point out. When we had huge leads (due to a pass first philosophy) we tended to run the ball late in games. Not only did we run late in games but most often the leaky yards came due to a defense that was worn out and/or had given up. Not saying always, but just saying we were still a pass first team in 09 and 11. What made us successful was us getting out to an early lead and doing it often. We played ahead v's behind and you tend to run more in those instances.
Balance needs to be the key to the future. A true commitment to the run game. Like others in the thread I think CSP is making that commitment. I'm ready for some Khiry Robinson (needs a nickname) and Mark Ingram Show with a Splash of
PT.
Posted on 3/16/14 at 2:22 am to Dats Who
Stats don't lie. People lie with stats.
And you have a good point regarding running with a lead, which is why I posted DVOA, which takes game situation into account. If you run well in situations where the opponent knows you are going to run, such as late in games with a lead, that is more meaningful than picking up yards in garbage time off draws when you're behind and the game is out of reach.
LINK
And you have a good point regarding running with a lead, which is why I posted DVOA, which takes game situation into account. If you run well in situations where the opponent knows you are going to run, such as late in games with a lead, that is more meaningful than picking up yards in garbage time off draws when you're behind and the game is out of reach.
LINK
This post was edited on 3/16/14 at 2:25 am
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