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Baseball Preview: #5 LSU @ #3 Vanderbilt – Fri 6:30 / Sat 2:15 / Sun 1

Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:43 pm
Posted by AstroTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2007
22966 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:43 pm
Alright baseball fans, this is what we have all been waiting for. SEC play kicks off this weekend, and the Tigers face their first true test of the 2014 season. LSU (16-2) is riding a 7 game winning streak, including a sweep of Purdue and a pair of midweek victories over in-state competition. LSU packs their bags for its first weekend away from home as the Tigers head up to Nashville to open conference play. Vanderbilt (16-2) enters this weekend’s series with a 9 game winning streak on the line. The Commodores have not lost a weekend game yet this season in 4 weeks and 12 games, with sweeps at Long Beach State and at home vs Stanford. These two teams did not meet in a weekend series last season, but were matched up in a highly touted SEC Championship game in Hoover, where the Tigers came away with the tournament title in a 5-4 victory in 11 innings. Vanderbilt, however, has won the last six series between these team dating back to 2006, including a Commodore sweep in LSU’s last visit to Hawkins Field by a combined score of 31-11.



Vanderbilt Commodores
Record: 16-2
Conference: 0-0 SEC
Non-Conf: 16-2
Home: 12-2
Away: 4-0
Neutral: 0-0

Team Overview:
Vanderbilt is lead by two-time SEC Coach of the Year, Tim Corbin. Under Corbin, the Dores have 8 straight regional appearances, 4 super regional appearances, and 1 college world series appearance. In 2013, Vanderbilt set an SEC record with a ridiculous 26-3 record in conference play and 54-12 overall record, earning themselves the #2 national seed before falling to the Louisville Cardinals in Nashville in disappointing fashion. Vandy returns All-American ace Tyler Beede, but suffered many big offensive losses, none bigger than SEC Player of the Year and 1st team All-American Tony Kemp. Pitching is the backbone of the Commodore team this season, and the numbers this year have been more than impressive to back it up. Vanderbilt was selected to finish 2nd in the east behind South Carolina by a narrow margin. I personally selected Vanderbilt to win the SEC once again.


Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 5.8 (7.2)
Runs/game allowed: 1.6 (1.7)

Team ERA: 1.33 (1.53)
Opponent ERA: 5.10 (6.21)

Team BA: .289 (.312)
Opponent BA: .169 (.206)

Team Fielding %: .984 (.981)
Opponent Fielding %: .962 (.961)

Starting Pitching:
Friday night will feature the best pitching matchup in the country on the regular season college baseball schedule. LSU sends out All-American ace Aaron Nola once again, who has been nothing short of dominant in all 4 starts this season allowing no runs in 27 innings of work and just 11 hits. As usual Nola’s command is unmatched walking just 2 while striking out 36. Nola does not get rattled easily and that composure will be needed as the Tigers will count on him to lead the team into this hostile environment against a top 5 opponent. Corbin’s Commodores will counter with an All-American ace of his own, Tyler Beede. The school record holder with 14 wins last season, Beede is on pace for another record season with 4 wins in as many starts this season, just as Nola has done. Beede was a first round draft pick back in 2011 and projects as the same once again this summer. The junior’s fastball sits in the mid-90’s and has touched as high as 97mph. He also features a 12-6 curve in the low 80’s as a secondary pitch. Beede must be in command of his curveball for it to be effective, otherwise he may put it in his pocket for a later inning out pitch. Beede’s best pitch is probably his changeup. The change has a good sinking movement and provides the most consistency for Tyler over his career.


On Saturday, the Tigers will once again send out junior lefty Kyle Bouman. Kyle has been a terrific addition to this LSU rotation and makes the biggest start of his brief LSU career on Saturday afternoon. Jared Miller will get the start for Vanderbilt to make this a lefty-lefty matchup on Fox Sports. Miller is a big physical presence on the mound standing at 6’7 and 240 pounds. He has been sensational so far this season allowing just 1 earned run in over 24 innings of work and earned the win in all 4 starts. Miller has developed his velocity the last couple of years at Vanderbilt and now has a fastball that comes in from the left side at 90-92mph. He has a changeup as well as a curveball that sit in the mid 70’s and upper 70’s to 80 respectively, but Miller’s real out pitch is his slider. When that slider is working, Miller is as effective as anyone in the SEC.

On Sunday, LSU will send out freshman Jared Poché to make his first weekend start since February 22nd in a win over Texas Southern. Poché has earned the win in all 4 games that he has started this season, including his first career road start at Northwestern State last Thursday. Toeing the rubber for the Dores on Sunday will be sophomore Tyler Ferguson. Used as a midweek starter and reliever last season, Ferguson earned a rotation job and has made his first 4 weekend starts this season and has not disappointed so far. His distance into the game has set career highs in each start this season, ending with a 7 inning outing last Sunday against Winthrop. A 6’3 right handed pitcher, Ferguson’s main pitches are the fastball and a curve. The fastball comes in at the low 90’s, while the curve is a great out pitch. He will also throw a changeup as a secondary pitch that he continues to develop.


Friday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (4-0, 0.00 ERA, 27.0 IP, 11 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 36 K, .121 OBA)
Jr. RHP Tyler Beede (4-0, 1.08 ERA, 25.0 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 33 K, .129 OBA)

Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. LHP Kyle Bouman (3-0, 1.46 ERA, 24.2 IP, 18 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 13 K, .209 OBA)
Jr. LHP Jared Miller (4-0, 0.36 ERA, 24.2 IP, 13 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 22 K, .153 OBA)

Sunday's Pitching Matchup:
Fr. LHP Jared Poché (4-0, 0.90 ERA, 20.0 IP, 16 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 15 K, .219 OBA)
So. RHP Tyler Ferguson (3-0, 1.50 ERA, 24.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 22 K, .160 OBA)


Relief Pitching:
The Vanderbilt bullpen has been absolutely amazing this season. The relief pitching on the season has thrown 62 innings, allowed just 28 hits for a .137 batting average against, and recorded a ridiculous 0.44 ERA. This bullpen has not allowed an earned run in the last 28.1 innings. RHP Brian Miller set a school record with 16 saves in 2013 and has been dominant so far in his junior season with a 0.00 ERA in 9 innings. The sidearmer has allowed just 3 hits for a .091 OBA while walking 1 and striking out 10. Surprisingly however, Miller has just 1 save this season and has served primarily as the setup man for sophomore Carson Fulmer. A 15th round draft pick by the Red Sox, Fulmer has a mid-90’s fastball that can get up to 97mph. He has already recorded 5 saves in 7 appearances for a 1.32 ERA.

Miller and Fulmer are Corbin’s go-to guys in the pen, but there are several other quality arms at his disposal. Hayden Stone has come in and made a huge splash in his freshman season. Stone has made 7 appearances, pitching 12.1 innings and striking out 20 and walking just 2. Opponents are hitting just .053 against Stone and he has recorded a save. Stone has a nasty, nasty slider to go along with his plus fastball. Adam Ravenelle has been solid so far (8.2 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K) as well as the top lefty out of the bullpen John Kilichowski (9.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K).



continued in next post...
This post was edited on 3/14/14 at 12:13 am
Posted by AstroTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2007
22966 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:43 pm to
Vanderbilt Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .289 (.312)
Team OBP: .384 (.410)
Team SLG: .400 (.441)

It is well documented the losses that Vanderbilt suffered from the offensive side of the ball. This includes 6 every day starters and Yazstremski and Kemp finally graduated. As any good program does, the Dores have reloaded with a ton of young talent. These guys are coming into their own and leading the way is freshman Bryan Reynolds. The switch hitting outfielder is leading the team in hits (24), average (.358), RBI’s (15), doubles (9), and is tied for the team lead with a triple and a home run. The returning player with the highest average is third baseman Xavier Turner. The freshman All-American hit .324 a year ago and isn’t far off pace this season with a .304 average that includes a 3 game 0 for 11 slump. “X” has stolen 28 bases in 77 career games. Dansby Swanson has locked down the top of the order with a .427 OBP and .324 average with a team leading 13 walks and 18 runs scored. Swanson has stolen a team high 7 bases in 10 attempts. Zander Wiel in 2013 hit .305 with 5 homers and a .955 OPS. Wiel has picked up this season where he left off, hitting .333 avg and a .994 OPS. The top 5 guys in this lineup are underclassman and will be dangerous weapons by seasons end an years to come.


Vanderbilt Projected Lineup:
1) 2B – So. R/R – Dansby Swanson (.324 avg, 6 2B, 3B, HR, 8 RBI, 18 R, 13 BB, 13 K)
2) LF – Fr. S/R – Bryan Reynolds (.358 avg, 9 2B, 3B, HR, 15 RBI, 14 R, 3 BB, 8 K)
3) 1B – So. R/R – Zander Wiel (.333 avg, 7 2B, 3B, HR, 11 RBI, 14 R, 10 BB, 6 K)
4) 3B – So. R/R – Xavier Turner (.304 avg, 5 2B, 11 RBI, 10 R, 5 BB, 5 K)
5) DH – So. L/R – Rhett Wiseman (.283 avg, 4 2B, 10 RBI, 6 R, 7 BB, 10 K)
6) SS – Jr. R/R – Vince Conde (.259 avg, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 11 BB, 8 K)
7) C – Jr. R/R – Chris Harvey (.344 avg, 3 2B, 5 RBI, 6 R, 3 BB, 8 K)
8) CF – Fr. L/R – Nolan Rogers (.222 avg, 2 2B, 9 RBI, 8 R, 7 BB, 10 K)
9) RF – Jr. R/R – John Norwood (.225 avg, 1 2B, 6 RBI, 4 R, 5 BB, 4 K)


Other guys we will see:
So. OF R/R – Kyle Smith (.316 avg, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 5 R, 2 BB, 6 K)
Fr. C R/R – Jason Delay (.313 avg, 2B, 2 RBI, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K)
Fr. C R/R – Karl Ellison (.333 avg, 1 BB, 1 K)
Fr. OF S/R – Ro Coleman (.167 avg, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K)


Defense:
Vanderbilt is fielding at a solid .984 so far this season and has not committed an error in the last 8 games. LSU is fielding .981 this year.

Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)

Media Coverage:
TV: Friday – None; Saturday – FSN; Sunday – None
Online: GeauxZone provides audio only; video streaming on Vandy’s site
Radio: Friday 100.7 FM, Saturday 98.1 FM, Sunday 98.1 FM

PREDICTION: Friday night will be as advertised. The LSU offense needs to be aggressive with Beede, who like Nola, loves to pound the strike zone. Nola will outduel Beede in a performance that may separate the two in the SEC Pitcher of the Year race. On Saturday afternoon, Jared Miller will be too much for LSU to handle from the left side, and Bouman struggles for the first time on the road. I see this series coming down to the rubber game on Sunday which leaves it in the hands of the true freshman. I see Poché establishing himself as a solid weekend starter for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately I don’t think his performance will be enough to hold on and the Dores use the late middle innings to take over and capture the series victory.
Fri: LSU 2, Vandy 1
Sat: LSU 1, Vandy 4
Sun: LSU 3, Vandy 4


This post was edited on 3/13/14 at 11:44 pm
Posted by GarmischTiger
Humboldt County
Member since Mar 2007
6608 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:46 pm to
quote:

AstroTiger
Solid work.

Geaux Tigers!
Posted by Gulffisherman
Bogalusa
Member since Oct 2009
3531 posts
Posted on 3/13/14 at 11:59 pm to
More solid work Astro

Vandy base running/steals will determine a lot in this series.

Hope Bouman and Poche can hold their own

Posted by Ignignot
Member since Mar 2009
18823 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 12:04 am to
I like this team and think we have Omaha potential to do possibly more than last year.

But this being our first true road test and it being against arguably one of the best staffs in the SEC/NCAA, I tend to agree on the prediction of dropping the series 1-2.
This post was edited on 3/14/14 at 12:06 am
Posted by la_birdman
Lake Charles
Member since Feb 2005
31001 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 12:06 am to
Posted by wbickh1
Member since Feb 2013
34 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 12:28 am to
Love these every week! Thanks Astro and
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
61758 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 1:14 am to
You da man, Astro!
Posted by bayoubengal225
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2009
5268 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 1:15 am to
Fantastic work! Great read. Would not know much about our opponent otherwise. I agree that this is a great early test and we get humbled a bit. Just hope we come home with a win, don't want to get swept. But hey, we are LSU, you never know! Baserunning may determine a game or two and we are one of the worst baserunning teams I've seen so far this year, time for us to change that. I think we really see PM coach like the challenge to get to Omaha starts Friday night...
Posted by TigerBwoy
0.4 miles from Tiger Stadium
Member since Oct 2009
6345 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 6:07 am to
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52210 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 6:29 am to
My body is ready
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
84943 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 6:51 am to
I'm Sofa King excite
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
61758 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 7:03 am to
TPOS had a breakdown of Nola vs Beede yesterday on twitter. It was done by major league scouts. Good read.
Posted by AstroTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2007
22966 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 7:15 am to
Posted by TIGERNATION031
Section 215. Alex Box Stadium
Member since Jun 2013
1055 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 7:18 am to
Posted by LSUSoulja08
Member since Oct 2007
16969 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 7:41 am to
so pumped for ths I can barely stand it

ready to see what this team is really made of and ready for that dude Nola to put in some work tonight

Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
56009 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 8:02 am to
so assuming the game ins't blacked out I will probably have the LSU game on my CPU and the basketball game on my iPhone
Posted by mcneil912
Member since Feb 2013
5322 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 8:07 am to
It's going down tonight
Posted by Sacrifice_blunts
Member since Jun 2013
298 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 8:07 am to
quote:

Friday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (4-0, 0.00 ERA, 27.0 IP, 11 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 36 K, .121 OBA)
Jr. RHP Tyler Beede (4-0, 1.08 ERA, 25.0 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 33 K, .129 OBA)

Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. LHP Kyle Bouman (3-0, 1.46 ERA, 24.2 IP, 18 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 13 K, .209 OBA)
Jr. LHP Jared Miller (4-0, 0.36 ERA, 24.2 IP, 13 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 22 K, .153 OBA)

Sunday's Pitching Matchup:
Fr. LHP Jared Poché (4-0, 0.90 ERA, 20.0 IP, 16 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 15 K, .219 OBA)
So. RHP Tyler Ferguson (3-0, 1.50 ERA, 24.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 22 K, .160 OBA)


I realize it is still early in the season but these stat lines for all 6 SPs are crazy!
Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
56009 posts
Posted on 3/14/14 at 8:08 am to
glad you were able to get this in stro hope your computer is doing well.

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