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Current Market Chart bearing Strong Resemblance to 1929's.......
Posted on 2/11/14 at 10:09 am
Posted on 2/11/14 at 10:09 am
What is the Money boards thoughts on this? I'm a little skeptical, though some of these folks make a fair argument.
LINK
quote:
That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its gyrations in 1928 and 1929.
quote:
Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)
quote:
To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern. But between now and May 2014, there is plenty of reason for caution.”
LINK
5
Posted on 2/11/14 at 11:34 am to TJG210
Just some fear mongering clown, not concerned/don't care.
Posted on 2/11/14 at 11:38 am to TJG210
Posted on 2/11/14 at 12:51 pm to TJG210
Theres plenty of reason to be skeptical as the preponderance of evidence suggests that charting is totally ineffective and what few incidences of being correct there are with using charting are roughly the equivalent to that of chance(predicted randomness).
This post was edited on 2/11/14 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 2/11/14 at 1:00 pm to TJG210
quote:
To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern.
If present patterns always stray from historic patterns eventually, then it's not a pattern at all and is simply coincidence.
That's pretty much how I heard that statement.
Posted on 2/11/14 at 1:02 pm to TJG210
Posted on 2/11/14 at 1:12 pm to wickowick
I hope no one is stupid enough to not notice the different scales beng used (ie move atleast 2x greater in the 1920s.)
This post was edited on 2/11/14 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 2/11/14 at 1:33 pm to C
quote:
I hope no one is stupid enough to not notice the different scales beng used (ie move atleast 2x greater in the 1920s.)
Yeah, the article touched on that, and for some absurd reason said it's not relevant, only the pattern.
The market rose by nearly 100% in 1928-29, as oppose to about 25-30% since late 2012. So if the scaling stays the same, we're looking at a 25-30% correction back to 2012 numbers. While that is indeed a significant drop, it's hardly a crash of Great Depression proportions.
Not to mention there was a similar correction of about 23% in 2011.
This post was edited on 2/11/14 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 2/11/14 at 6:01 pm to rintintin
quote:
Yeah, the article touched on that, and for some absurd reason said it's not relevant, only the pattern.
The market rose by nearly 100% in 1928-29, as oppose to about 25-30% since late 2012. So if the scaling stays the same, we're looking at a 25-30% correction back to 2012 numbers. While that is indeed a significant drop, it's hardly a crash of Great Depression proportions.
Not to mention there was a similar correction of about 23% in 2011.
there is a lot of hot money moving around, which increases the swings such as this.
Hopefully we will get a good indicator that this shite is coming a la 2008.
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