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WTF is up with Philip Morris (PM)?
Posted on 2/5/14 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 2/5/14 at 12:58 pm
I thought it was supposed to be a sure shot like KO with people in the 3rd world smoking more than ever. It has under performed the S&P by a considerable margin over the past 6 months. See below chart. WTF is going on with them?
9
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:01 pm to saintforlife1
Maybe due to MJ use. PM also outperformed the S&P in 2011 and 2012 so everythings cyclic...
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:05 pm to saintforlife1
Most consider PM a safe play during bear markets, not during bull runs.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:06 pm to saintforlife1
If there was ever a thread to get ThaBigFella out of hiding, this may just be it.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:11 pm to OnTheBrink
Wonder if he got banned for something?
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:11 pm to OnTheBrink
I'm in @ $90 so I'm taking a beating.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:15 pm to DucksnBucks37
quote:
WTF is up with Philip Morris (PM)?
Im sure today's announcement from CVS isn't going to help them much.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:17 pm to Lsut81
If BigFella was here I'd guess his answer would be: "Stock price went down? Great, my DRIP account will buy more shares."
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:21 pm to saintforlife1
a lot of people quit after new years.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:22 pm to saintforlife1
I know that most people here don't put much stock (har har) into technical analysis, but I kind of called this one back in May:
quote:
I'm not an expert by any means, but from what I can gather the technical analysts essentially have a method to draw a line pretty much anywhere on the chart. You have these fib levels, your various moving averages, trendlines, etc. So, at any given time they can say "look for such and such when the stock approaches price X", and X can be anything.
In the case of PM, what stands out to me is the "double top" where it tried (and failed) to get very far above $96 twice in the last month. To the technical analyst (TA here on out), this looks like strong "resistance", and now does not appear to be a good time to buy for a mid to long term position. However, another thing that stands out is that PM has been getting strong "support" from the 50-day moving average, having bounced off of it 3 times since February, and is as of today possibly bouncing for a 4th time.
So, as a novice TA, I would say that if PM dips down below the 50-day MA in the next couple of days ($92.50 or so), then look for it to make a considerable move further down. If it instead bounces back up in the next few days back toward $96, then that would be the next time to watch. The support and resistance will continue to "squeeze" the chart into that pennant pattern. Generally, whatever happens in the days following PM either breaking above $96, or below the MA, would be an indication to the TA as to the direction of the next short/mid term trend.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:39 pm to saintforlife1
Its a really good buy right now IMO. They pay a nice dividend and have plenty of capital to enter emerging markets as well as new products. Definitely a long term play but I still feel like its a good company to own.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 1:51 pm to saintforlife1
Wait? So it's cheap?
Then buy it
Then buy it
Posted on 2/5/14 at 2:37 pm to saintforlife1
quote:
WTF is going on with them?
I'm wondering the same thing - I'm pretty heavy in PM - and it looked okay (tracking) until about Thanksgiving.
The only thing keeping me in is the dividend, at this point. When the price recovers, I won't completely divest, but I will re-evaluate the position.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 2:38 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Im sure today's announcement from CVS isn't going to help them much.
That will hit MO, not PM - PM is outside the U.S.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 2:46 pm to saintforlife1
That just sounds like a buying opportunity to me.
Posted on 2/5/14 at 5:10 pm to jimbeam
quote:
Wait? So it's cheap?
Then buy it
I bought in at ~$91. I am not a happy customer except for the dividends.
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