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How many days in the future do extended forecasts become useless?

Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:08 pm
Posted by bpfergu
Member since Jun 2011
3485 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:08 pm
Trying to plan an upcoming trip that starts in 11 days and how the weather is will govern a few plans.

They have those 15 day extended forecasts but can you really take any prediction past a week or so out with any confidence?
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84116 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:09 pm to
2
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50344 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

They have those 15 day extended forecasts but can you really take any prediction past a week or so out with any confidence?



Anything past a day or two is unreliable
Posted by NYCAuburn
TD Platinum Membership/SECr Sheriff
Member since Feb 2011
57002 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:10 pm to
really its about 2-5, the extended are good at judging what might happen, but during the winter can change rapidly
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
18963 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:10 pm to
Anything past 15 min
Posted by ksayetiger
Centenary Gents
Member since Jul 2007
68311 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Anything past 15 min



anything past what i see outside
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98188 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:14 pm to
Within reason, it's useful. Look at the pattern, not the forecast for a specific day.
Posted by Brian Wilson
Member since Mar 2012
2017 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:29 pm to
1
Posted by iliveinabox
in a box
Member since Aug 2011
24115 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:31 pm to
like 3-4..
Posted by The Last Coco
On the water
Member since Mar 2009
6840 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:33 pm to
After 2-3 days, they give a general idea of what may happen in the 48-72 hr period surrounding a day, but little in planning a morning or afternoon event.
Posted by brewhan davey
Audubon Place
Member since Sep 2010
32793 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:47 pm to
The last couple of weeks have taught me that anything beyond a day or two is to be taken with a grain of salt.
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6172 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:50 pm to
Depends on where. Some places are easier to forecast and models agree more frequently and further ahead than they do for other places.

In general though, beyond 2-3 days is a good general rule to consider a forecast not very reliable. For up here in the mountains, beyond 2 days isn't worth planning around. For Houston, 3 days out is usually somewhat reliable in a general sense. No matter where though, if timing and amount of precipitation is what you need, the day before is best of course.

ETA: NWS re-runs models and updates their forecasts multiple times a day, I think every 6 or 8 hrs if I remember right.
This post was edited on 2/3/14 at 4:53 pm
Posted by bpfergu
Member since Jun 2011
3485 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:58 pm to
Yeah this was a trip up to the Rockies so it looks like I'm going to have to wait at least another week to start planning for specifics.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
171036 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 4:58 pm to
1-2
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79212 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 5:39 pm to
1-2 for any accuracy, 3-4 for general ideas (likely to rain/not to rain/relative temp ranges).

You can assess lows and fronts a few days out, but for what they'll actually bring, beyond 48 is unreliable.

5+ day forecasts are largely worthless, I think. I'm pretty sure that in the 10-15 day they're either guessing or just using historical averages.
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6172 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 6:05 pm to
Opensnow.com is a good supplement to NWS for CO snow forecasts a few days out. I use it to see if a system might be coming through 4-5 days out and check it once a day until it's 24 hrs before when I want to know specifics. Then I'll use NWS within 24 hrs for specifics.
This post was edited on 2/3/14 at 6:09 pm
Posted by Tigris
Mexican Home
Member since Jul 2005
12357 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 6:10 pm to
What do you want to know? Temperature? If so then 11 days out the forecast may be slightly better than a random guess. For precipitation it's not worthless.

For temperature it starts getting decent at about a week out. For precip. maybe around 4 days.
Posted by bpfergu
Member since Jun 2011
3485 posts
Posted on 2/3/14 at 7:43 pm to
Temperature and more importantly snowfall.
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