My Final Take on the Outback Bowl

For the tl;dr crowd, either don't bother or take some medication. This is going to go on a bit.

For the "this bowl sucks" crowd. Save it. I'm excited for any football game Iowa plays, be it against Western Michigan or anyone else.

So with that said...

What I want you guys to understand first is that Iowa, coming off a very uncharacteristic 4-8 season last year has been a work in progress this year. We started 2013 with a loss against Northern Illinois (who isn't a bad team), but definitely a game that should have been a win.

This year's Iowa team has improved as the season has progressed and is playing its best football now. Typically, Iowa stumbles due to injuries to key players and just doesn't have the depth to overcome them. This year I see a team that is as healthy as any Iowa team has been at this point in the season. No excuses for us in the bowl game.

When I look at the match-up, the thing that jumps out at me is the need for a running game for both teams to be successful (especially with Mettenberger out). This makes line play the deciding factor (as it often is). This is also where I think Iowa has an advantage after watching a few of your games. The thing that jumps out at me, and the reason for you guys getting gashed up the middle is the high pad level that your DL plays with. I think this gives the Hawkeye OL and Weisman especially a big advantage. If Iowa is able to run, they will have a good chance to win.

I think Iowa's defense matches up well with the style of offense you guys play as well. I see your running game being limited, the DBs playing well of your WRs to prevent big plays and a concession of the short passing game to make Jennings beat the Hawks with repeated consistency. He will be the key to you guys winning. If he plays well, you have a shot. If he struggles then I see Iowa with a convincing win. He looks very talented, so there's no question he could put together a good performance.

The x-factors are turnovers, penalties and special teams. You guys have Beckham as a very dynamic returner. I think if he makes a play it will be on a kickoff return as opposed to a punt return as our punt coverage has been very solid (as has yours). Iowa's return game is average and probably won't be an advantage. We have a decided advantage in the penalty department. Who knows how the turnovers will play out.

Iowa's football team is set up to prepare players to play in the NFL (whether talented enough or not). They execute fundamentals at a very high level and are put in the best position to win any given game. Very rarely are they outclassed athletically because most successful Iowa teams are composed of physically and emotionally mature players. Last year's debacle happened because they were immature both physically and mentally. Next year's team will be even more mature and I would be very surprised if they were't contending for a BCsS-level bowl game at the end of the season.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If Iowa plays well, LSU will have their hands full (no matter how motivated they are). This is a good Hawkeye football team that typically shows up for bowl games. They will be physical, faster than you expect and are there to win a game. I don't know why you bother playing a game if you don't intend to win the damn thing. The good teams get up consistently for whichever game they're playing. Anything else is a crappy excuse.

In the end, I see Iowa winning 24-13 or 33-23. A greater spread wouldn't surprise me in the least, especially if Jennings struggles.