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re: My Final Take on the Outback Bowl

Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:33 pm to
Posted by BrewHawk
Lucas, TX
Member since Nov 2004
319 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

Okay now I'm not sure if you're being serious or just looking to troll. Iowa is not holding LSU to 13 points.

Missouri State scored 14 on y'all. Iowa State scored 21. Michigan 21 and Nebraska 17. So you're telling me that LSU's offense which is infinitely better than any of those teams is going to score less with 300 yards passing?

If you are trolling kudos. You got me. I totally thought you were serious at the start.


Totally serious. Maybe I should have just given a margin of victory instead of a point total.

So, if you think LSU scores more then I would say the final would be 33-23 Hawks. You'll have a lot of passing yards because Iowa will get the early lead and LSU will be forced to play catchup. Iowa will be content to give up the underneath routes and the passing yards will pile up.
Posted by BrewHawk
Lucas, TX
Member since Nov 2004
319 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

Thanks for taking the time to offer your take on the matchup. I think it should be a good game. Personally, I think the Tigers will be more motivated than most Tiger fans seem to be, especially after last year's loss. But we'll see....

I agree that Iowa's run game and our ability to deal with it is one of the big keys to the game. Given the fact that we have struggled this year with teams that feature a power running game (Bama, Georgia...especially before Gurley got hurt, and Arkansas), I think we might be in for a real battle.

Your comments on the solid fundamental play of Iowa's O linemen rings true, and is echoed by what I've read in some of the predictions for the game. And, yes, it does seem to me that most of the players Iowa sends to the League are linemen.

I don't know what to expect from Jennings. He was great at the end of the Arky game, and he certainly brings another dimension to our offense with his mobility, but we'll obviously be missing Mett's maturity and experience. I agree with some other posters who have pointed out that if Jennings passes for something like 300 yards, we'll be in good shape.


This is the most level-headed post I've seen from an LSU fan since I've been on the board since the bowl game was announced (there have been some other good ones as well).

Thank you (you can make your 4 TD victory prediction now ).
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
45118 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

I think I get what you're saying but if OBJ and Landry combine for 300 yards and AJ passes for at least that much, you guys are getting trounced.


quote:

Not if we limit you to under 100 yards on the ground (now you can really start arrogantly laughing).


Look man, I respect the Hawkeyes and I am actually a bit of Hawkeye fan from afar. My Mom was from Iowa and a Hawkeye fan so I have always keep a eye out for their scores and such. Ya"ll have a nice well respected program. I don't think anyone in this thread is belittleing you. But your wrong about a number of things. Can Iowa win this game? sure absolutely. We are starting a freshman QB and yes he is the unknown factor here. But what your not seeing is the Les Miles factor and how he plays a game. Ya'll do have a bruising running game and good defense. But if Iowa allows LSU to throw for 300 yards, then this game will be very very ugly. Because Les Miles teams will always be balanced or try like hell to be. If we throw for 300, then we also run for 150-200, especially with a freshman QB. It will be because of a number of long pass plays. If that happens ya'll are screwed.
Posted by GetmorewithLes
UK Basketball Fan
Member since Jan 2011
19060 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:44 pm to
Good info. Response to a couple of points you made for sake of arguement.

You talked about the battle in the trenches and I agree that Iowa probably has some good folks in there. What I see is the LSU OL winning this war simply becaue they are very good run blockers and pretty good pass protecters this year and they will not be outsized or over matched. On DL we were not bad - we struggled at the LB play which has improved but is lower than LSU historical standard. Even with that this squad ranked pretty good on SEC rushing defense this year. We were able to hold Auburn to under 300 - they put >500 yds rushing on Bama.

QB play is the other. There again I agree Jennings is a question mark due to lack of experience but he has been here since last Jan and has been the #2 since Spring Practice. He has a very good arm but more importantly he has excellent "touch." The big issue here though is that you can throw out about 80% of the film study you have on us with Mett because he will run a different play set for his talents. He is much more mobile than Mett ever was.

JMHO
This post was edited on 12/26/13 at 4:46 pm
Posted by TampaTiger22
Tampa, FL
Member since Jul 2012
6669 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:45 pm to
How can you even pretend that the DB's at Iowa are going to stop LSU's WR ? Iowa has given up TD's of :

- 40,33,21 to Northern Illinois
- 27 to Missouri state
- 67,26,17 to Iowa State
- 23 to Minnesota
- 47,37 to Michigan state
- 58,14 to Ohio state
- 44,20 to Wisconsin
- 44 to Purdue
- 15 to Nebraska

these teams do not have wide receivers like LSU . You probably cant even name most of the guys who scored on long pass plays . Not to mention it is the big 10 . Not a lot of speed there . I am not saying LSU will dominate , but I am saying our WR are greater than the Iowa DB's .
Posted by TampaTiger22
Tampa, FL
Member since Jul 2012
6669 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:47 pm to
This is a pipe dream . We can run and pass pal . Iowas offense will be just slow enough for our D to look like it has in past years . LSU 38 - Iowa 2
Posted by TigerCard
Cleveland, OH
Member since Nov 2009
890 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

Thank you (you can make your 4 TD victory prediction now ).


Ain't gonna do it. I've been watching this sport long enough to know that you can rarely predict how a game is going to play out with any confidence, unless one team is clearly superior in almost every way. I can see scenarios in which either team could win big, but I think it will be fairly close...I would say within 10 points either way, depending especially on who does a better job in the run game. I do think that our offense will be a bit more effective than you seem to believe, but a lot of that depends on how Jennings does.
Posted by TampaTiger22
Tampa, FL
Member since Jul 2012
6669 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:53 pm to
I see no scenario where Iowa wins big . I can see how either team can win . Iowa is a good football team and they do not suck . But , I do not see where they win big .
Posted by Fleur De Lethal
NOLA
Member since Aug 2009
958 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:57 pm to
quote:

So, if you think LSU scores more then I would say the final would be 33-23 Hawks.


So Iowa is going to reach a point total they've only hit 3 times this year and once was against Western Michigan. And they're going to do it against a team who has only given up that total twice all season?

Add to that they're going to hold LSU to under 24 points which has only happened once all season?

Okay. Good luck.

Posted by Mayhawman
Somewhere in the middle of SEC West
Member since Dec 2009
10087 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

Not if we limit you to under 100 yards on the ground (now you can really start arrogantly laughing).
I won't laugh, but 5.1ypc and 200ypg are rof.
Iowa lost to every ranked opp faced and only have a decent avg rush ypg from the 6 mid majors/FCS faced, while LSU exceeded avg ypg vs 2 ranked foes.
If LSU stays dedicated and has 40+ rush att as I expcect, Iowa won't survive it.
Posted by BrewHawk
Lucas, TX
Member since Nov 2004
319 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

Ain't gonna do it. I've been watching this sport long enough to know that you can rarely predict how a game is going to play out with any confidence, unless one team is clearly superior in almost every way. I can see scenarios in which either team could win big, but I think it will be fairly close...I would say within 10 points either way, depending especially on who does a better job in the run game. I do think that our offense will be a bit more effective than you seem to believe, but a lot of that depends on how Jennings does.



If I were Cam, I would bring Jennings out with a bunch of quick routes to the perimter, because I think we'll be playing pretty soft on the edges to start the game. This will build confidence and establish a rhythm.

LSU may also very well come out and try to pound the ball down Iowa's throat. If they're able to do this the Hawks are in a world of hurt. I think (hope) that Iowa's run D will be up to the task, which will put the burden on Jennings to play well.

I think we're on the same page, just different endings to the story.
Posted by biglego
Ask your mom where I been
Member since Nov 2007
76284 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

Iowa's football team is set up to prepare players to play in the NFL (whether talented enough or not). They execute fundamentals at a very high level and are put in the best position to win any given game. Very rarely are they outclassed athletically because most successful Iowa teams are composed of physically and emotionally mature players. Last year's debacle happened because they were immature both physically and mentally. Next year's team will be even more mature and I would be very surprised if they were't contending for a BCsS-level bowl game at the end of the season.

I've got no idea about all this. But everything else is reasonable. An Iowa win wouldn't surprise anyone.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:06 pm to
You guys are definitely an assembly line of talent going to the NFL.
Posted by Tigercoop40
Northwest Arkansas
Member since Apr 2006
7539 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:06 pm to
Depends on how the coaching staff approaches Jennings. Hopefully they let him open it up and get confident. Not try to force a running game(Iowa will be looking to stop our running game). And put him in a position where he has to throw to win.

If the coaches let Jennings throw. Games over.

If the Florida and Bama CB's couldn't match up with Beckham and Landry, what makes you think your Iowa corners can?


One thing Jennings seems to do better than Mettenberger is find his TE. If he can find his TE and RB's in the passing game to further open up Landry and Beckham(as well as Boone or Dural), this game could get ugly.

LSU 35 Iowa 13
Posted by BrewHawk
Lucas, TX
Member since Nov 2004
319 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

So Iowa is going to reach a point total they've only hit 3 times this year and once was against Western Michigan. And they're going to do it against a team who has only given up that total twice all season?

Add to that they're going to hold LSU to under 24 points which has only happened once all season?

Okay. Good luck.


The only thing I have to go on is that we've been a better team each and every game we've played this year. I think that will be the case again after three weeks of preparation.

You can't go by the entire season,because we're a totally different team than we were at the start. This is an Iowa team that, barring injuries, was going to improve dramatically due to increased experience for young talent. This is what gives me even more confidence for success next year.

You're playing against a team that could very well be a top ten team next year. There's no shame in losing to a team like that
Posted by LSU GrandDad
houston, texas
Member since Jun 2009
21564 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

the thing that jumps out at me is the need for a running game for both teams to be successful


really? i mean, really? you are a genius.


quote:

I see your running game being limited


maybe you didn't research this well enough. we have four, that's FOUR great running backs AND a qb that can run.

man, i don't think you understand the LSU football team at all. your litany is confused. if your dbs play off of our wr's to prevent the big play we will kill you with the middle or short passing game. we have 2 one thousand yard receivers but our x factor is we also have other receivers as well, including our backs.

sure, you will be able to run on us. every team we have played has. we won't shut you out.

if LSU comes out motivated and ready to play, y'all are in trouble. our offense is very explosive and our OL will give our QB plenty of time to pick your D apart.

game will be close however, as LSU slacks off at the end and let's y'all score; LSU 31-Iowa 21
Posted by BrewHawk
Lucas, TX
Member since Nov 2004
319 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

You guys are definitely an assembly line of talent going to the NFL.


90% (106 of 119) of senior starters under Ferentz signed an NFL contract (draft or free agent). I would say that's pretty damn good for the "crappy talent" we get to Iowa City.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:12 pm to
I wouldn't doubt Les hides the offense in this bowl game with Jennings due to a big opener next year. I'll bet it's very vanilla and similar to what Jefferson ran here. Problem is Iowa has 0 idea what kind offense LSU is going to run with Jennings under center. He's every bit the definition of a true dual threat QB who will look to pass first before run.

I just feel it with this guy. Been saying it since the spring game...he has a natural ability to feel pressure, great pocket awareness and is accurate with his passes. I think he's going to be special. Those couple attributes are just something I feel can't be coached. I don't care how much you work on accuracy or w/e. You either have pocket awareness/accuracy or you don't...Jennings has both. I'm sure he'll have the young QB problem of locking onto WRs but that's something that can change over his years here.
This post was edited on 12/26/13 at 5:14 pm
Posted by canyon
Member since Dec 2003
18359 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:13 pm to
And your team will be beaten by a team that WILL be a top 10 team next year.
Keep yapping....
Posted by TigerCard
Cleveland, OH
Member since Nov 2009
890 posts
Posted on 12/26/13 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

I see no scenario where Iowa wins big . I can see how either team can win . Iowa is a good football team and they do not suck . But , I do not see where they win big .



I would tend to agree with you, and I would say it would be highly unlikely that Iowa could blow us out. But sometimes one team just plays lights out and the other can have a nightmare of turnovers, or injuries, or boneheaded plays. I've seen plenty of games where one team just overwhelms the other one even though they are fairly evenly matched, or even if the losing team is moderately better than the winning team. If you play poorly enough to give a decent team that is well-coached multiple advantages, sometimes they can really pour it on if the football gods smile on them.

I remember when Louisville blew out Bama at the Fiesta Bowl in the early 90s. They just obliterated the Tide because Bama wasn't ready for them. I'm also a Cards fan, so I loved the result. But I'm realistic enough to know that if those two teams had played ten times, I suspect Bama would have won most of those games. Sometimes it happens....
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