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DoCho's Bowl Prediction Algorithm: Day 2
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:48 am
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:48 am
Well I went 2-2 on day 1. Which is pretty much the worst case scenario. Going 50/50 is the last thing I want to do. If I go 0-4 at least I can say hey, just pick all the opposites and its perfect.
The good news is if you bet all 4 of the picks it chose, you wouldve come out a winner because they were all dogs.
Today the algorithm selected a favorite for the first time. ECU is a 14 point favorite according to what Ive seen. The algorithm predicts them as a double digit favorite and gives them a 60% chance to cover a 14 point spread. So I guess it's pretty encouraging that this pick lines up so well with the lines.
So if you have to bet on this one, take ECU and the points. But I really wouldnt. The line seems to be right on. ECU to win for sure though. No doubt.
The good news is if you bet all 4 of the picks it chose, you wouldve come out a winner because they were all dogs.
Today the algorithm selected a favorite for the first time. ECU is a 14 point favorite according to what Ive seen. The algorithm predicts them as a double digit favorite and gives them a 60% chance to cover a 14 point spread. So I guess it's pretty encouraging that this pick lines up so well with the lines.
So if you have to bet on this one, take ECU and the points. But I really wouldnt. The line seems to be right on. ECU to win for sure though. No doubt.
9
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:49 am to DollaChoppa
Have you compared your system to Tuba's?
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:52 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
gives them a 60% chance to cover a 14 point spread.
quote:Those two statements don't jive if you trust your system.
So if you have to bet on this one, take ECU and the points. But I really wouldnt. The line seems to be right on.
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:54 am to Louie T
My system says that ECU will win by ~15 points
Posted on 12/23/13 at 9:57 am to DollaChoppa
In other words, flip a coin.
Posted on 12/23/13 at 10:26 am to DollaChoppa
You created a getting algorithm?
Going to be a desperate day when I turn to that
Going to be a desperate day when I turn to that
Posted on 12/23/13 at 10:45 am to DollaChoppa
I do my picks using a simulator I wrote. It has done pretty well historically, but the last couple years it has fallen off. It's due for a tune-up, but I guess I will start posting my picks in your threads, if you don't mind. I will have to wait till I get home to see the actual predicted spread, but I know I have ECU winning, but by less than 14.
Posted on 12/23/13 at 4:28 pm to DollaChoppa
Up 11 with 7 minutes...
This post was edited on 12/23/13 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 12/23/13 at 4:31 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
So if you have to bet on this one, take ECU and the points.
Posted on 12/23/13 at 4:45 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
Today the algorithm selected a favorite for the first time. ECU is a 14 point favorite according to what Ive seen. The algorithm predicts them as a double digit favorite and gives them a 60% chance to cover a 14 point spread. So I guess it's pretty encouraging that this pick lines up so well with the lines.
Well son of a Bitch, it works!
This time
Posted on 12/23/13 at 4:52 pm to DollaChoppa
The GOAT
Keep this algorithm away from Vegas
Keep this algorithm away from Vegas
Posted on 12/23/13 at 4:53 pm to TheOcean
Posted on 12/23/13 at 5:09 pm to DollaChoppa
We pulled that out at the end. Great cover 
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