Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014 | TigerDroppings.com

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Hoyas
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Member since Sep 2013
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Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014



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quote:

The Senate, however, is a different beast entirely. In a 2010-style environment, Republicans would almost certainly exceed their gain of seven seats that year (counting Scott Brown’s special election victory in January). The reason is simple: Democrats dodged a bullet in 2010 in terms of their playing field. Because 2004 had been a very good Republican year, where the GOP had won most of the competitive seats -- early analysis in 2009 suggested Democrats might actually expand on their filibuster-proof majority -- there just wasn’t much exposure for the president’s party.

But 2014 is different. The Democrats up for re-election this year won their seats in 2008, which was a Democratic wave year. Because of this, there is quite a lot of exposure for Obama’s party.

To better visualize this, consider the following chart. On the left is the distribution of Democratic Senate seats in 2010 by Cook PVI, and the result. On the right is the distribution of Democratic Senate seats in 2014, also by Cook PVI. (Note that some states have different PVIs for 2010 and 2014. This is because the intervening presidential election altered the PVIs of many states.)





quote:


There was something of a “break point” in the PVI around D+2. Republicans won most of the Democratic Senate seats that were more Republican than D+2, and generally lost the rest. This tendency is more pronounced when you take into account that the GOP is widely regarded as having blown great opportunities in Nevada and Colorado with poor candidate selection, and was faced with a uniquely strong candidate in West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin. This tendency is all the more marked when you realize that the GOP swept six of its own vulnerable Senate seats in the D+2 to R+4 range in that year; it overall won 83 percent of the seats that were D+2 or more Republican.

But there are a lot more seats in this category this time around. If they won 83 percent of the D+2 or better seats in 2014, plus one of the less competitive races (as they did with Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk’s seat in 2010), they’d pick up nine seats, and this assumes them losing two or three seats due to poor candidate selection or uniquely strong Democratic opponents. If Republicans don’t throw away a few seats a la 2010, winning at a similar rate would produce gains in excess of 10 seats.









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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
2478 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


Arkansas
West Virginia
Alaska
North Carolina
Louisiana
South Dakota
Montana

These are the most difficult states the Dems must defend

Iowa
Colorado
New Hampshire
Michigan

These are states that will be toss ups

Virginia
Minnesota
New Mexico

These states could be in play

ETA: Potentially 14 states up for grabs. This is all because of ObamaCare.




This post was edited on 12/15 at 10:39 pm


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SoulGlo
LSU Fan
Shinin' Through
Member since Dec 2011
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re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


I love the "poor candidate selection" bit.

It basically says "if you pick a candidate the establishment doesn't like, they are considered a poor candidate and will be defunded." They receive no support from the GOP, and as a result fail to win the seat. The GOP can the run around saying "see?! see?! Those people can't win!!"






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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
2478 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

I love the "poor candidate selection" bit.


Lessons of 2010 and 2012 went completely over your head I guess.






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HempHead
Alabama Fan
Appalachia
Member since Mar 2011
15940 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


I am contemplating a N.C. legislature run in 2014 - let's see if I can be the first (L) elected to office in the state.





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SoulGlo
LSU Fan
Shinin' Through
Member since Dec 2011
3593 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Lessons of 2010 and 2012 went completely over your head I guess.



Which lessons? I learned plenty... from those elections and the ones this year.

define "poor candidate."






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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
2478 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


Sharon Angle
Christine O'Donnell
Ken Buck
Richard Murdock
Todd Akin

Just off the top of my head?






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S.E.C. Crazy
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Feb 2013
6288 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


You really mean they were poor candidates with the help of the DNC arm / main stream news medias / big government loving azz0s ?

Of course the Mizzou candidate Akin is an awful candidate because he is against abortion and made a bad quote, Biden says stupid shyt weekly. DUMB SHYT, but Akin is a bad candidatr LMAO...... I bet he's 20 times better than that dimwitted woman who's just a yes man errr woman.


The woman from N.H. would have been better that a career politician anyday, NEWSMEIDA attacks her like they did Palin.

GET IT NOW, MSM laughs and mocks candidates, DUMBAZZ voters say aaaaa IF I VOTE FERN HER I'M A DUMMY.

YANKS ARE SO NAIVE.






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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
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re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

The woman from N.H. would have been better that a career politician anyday, NEWSMEIDA attacks her like they did Palin.




You have no awareness of just how unacceptable your candidates are do you? Not to mention you have no idea what state your candidates actually from?

Furthermore, it's not the general publics fault you present them with loony toon candidates. If you guys nominate Lugar, Castle and Lowden you split the senate and run Harry Reid out of office. You rather keep this false purity test instead of governing. There continues to be a lack of pragmatism inside the Tea Party.






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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
9654 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

The woman from N.H. would have been better that a career politician anyday,


Wrong state. No NH seat was open in 2012 and the female Republican (Ayotte)won in 2010.







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gthog61
Georgia Tech Fan
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
4213 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


Well there is a N.H. woman running this year who is already getting "the treatment".





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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
9654 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


There are three announced Republican candidates for Shaheen's NH seat so far, and none has any chance at all come November.

The announcement everyone up here is waiting on is that Scott Brown will run. If he does, he will easily be the Republican nominee. If he chooses to run in MA instead, he would be the nominee there as well and have the best chance against Markey, who is a relative lightweight as far as MA Democrats go.

As of right now, Brown would be the only viable Republican contender in either state, though it appears he's leaning more toward a run here in NH. The party is very weak in both states in terms of statewide candidates with any kind of appeal to Independents, which is a must up this way.

All four members of NH's congressional delegation are female, as is the Governor. An intelligent, articulate and self-confident Republican woman could do quite well here against Shaheen if Brown doesn't run - but such a creature is nowhere to be found right now in New Hampshire politics..






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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
2478 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


If only Judd Greg would run again?

Brown would be a Senator for life in NH if ran IMO. He is more in line with the NH moderates (who would vote overwhelming for him ) position than Shaheen. She will be running as a liberal trying to move to the middle away from ObamaCare. The only thing I know about NH is they HATE taxes.



This post was edited on 12/16 at 2:43 am


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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
9654 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Well there is a N.H. woman running this year who is already getting "the treatment".



Karen Testerman lives a mile away from me and is an extreme lightweight who doesn't have a prayer. The treasurer of her campaign is the same guy who was the treasurer for Christine O'Donnell's campaign. She ran for Governor in 2010 and got only 10% in the primary. She ran for the legislature twice and got beat both times. She has never held any kind of elective office. If she were the nominee, Shaheen would win in a landslide. She is exactly the kind of candidate the other poster was talking about.






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EST
LSU Fan
Investigating
Member since Oct 2003
14479 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


If the RINO's are still in control (McConnell) - a Repubican takeover won't matter - the RINO's will never repeal ObamaCare and they will support amnesty.

Still, I hope Landrieu is blown out.






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Hoyas
Georgetown Fan
Member since Sep 2013
2478 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Still, I hope Landrieu is blown out.


Why, if you believe it then it doesn't matter who is in power?

quote:

If the RINO's are still in control (McConnell) - a Repubican takeover won't matter - the RINO's will never repeal ObamaCare and they will support amnesty.


Then vote Democrat?

Seriously, maybe you have a better chance of repeal with democrats.



This post was edited on 12/16 at 11:05 am


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jerep
Member since May 2011
403 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Then vote Democrat?

Seriously, maybe you have a better chance of repeal with democrats.



He didn't say it doesn't matter who is in power. He said

quote:

If the RINO's are still in control (McConnell)


If he had said it doesn't matter who is in power, then the rational thing to do would not be to "vote Democrat", the rational thing to do would be to not vote at all.

There is a big difference between saying it doesn't matter who is in power, and saying it doesn't matter whether big-government D's or big-governemnt R's are in power.

There are those of use who want smaller government. Our choice is between candidates who will actually work for smaller government vs candidates who will do the opposite.

I don't care what party leaders say. I am more interested in what individuals actually do.






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CajunAngele
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
11168 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Sharon Angle
Christine O'Donnell
Ken Buck
Richard Murdock
Todd Akin

Just off the top of my head?


Everybody has their mistakes. If the tea party is a bunch of amateurs why did/is Obama targeting them? The tea party dealt Obama and the dems a shallacking. The GOP is the friend of thine enemy but if they would retire and GTFO we could clean the mess that is DC up.



This post was edited on 12/16 at 12:46 pm


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Bard
LA-Monroe Fan
BR
Member since Oct 2008
16394 posts

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

Still, I hope Landrieu is blown out.


I finally saw what I guess is her first attack ad on Cassidy. It mentioned "he voted (however many) times to close the federal government" as a negative. She has no clue about her constituents outside of New Orleans or the O&G bigwigs.






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goldennugget
LA-Monroe Fan
Bias Monitor
Member since Jul 2013
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 Online 

re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014


quote:

It basically says "if you pick a candidate the establishment doesn't like, they are considered a poor candidate and will be defunded." They receive no support from the GOP, and as a result fail to win the seat. The GOP can the run around saying "see?! see?! Those people can't win!!"


Its a shame isn't it? Establishment says we all must unite around their handpicked stooge when they win the primary and we do. But when the establishment doesn't get their handpicked stooge, they never back the candidate that did win.

Lots of establishment stooges lost in 2012 in red states but we never hear about that, we only hear about Todd Akin.






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