re: No charges filed against Jameis Winston

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f he raped her then he should go to jail for life with no parole. If she consented to sexual relations then later regretted it and is making up the rape afterwards, she should go to jail for life.

Unreal story.

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I think it's the later

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You shouldn't be so quick to make up your mind knowing absolutely zero facts about the case

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I'm waiting until this whole thing is final before drawing any sort of conclusions whatsoever.

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Totally agree with this. We all know that rape is one of the worst things you can do to someone and that they do actually occur all the time. On the other hand, we also know that a significant number of accused rapes are completely fabricated. Both acts are disgusting and life altering for all the parties involved. To make a snap decision in either direction is very ill advised.

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we also know that a significant number of accused rapes are completely fabricated.




41%

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This doesn't negate the fact that legitimate rapes do occur and should be punished.

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This doesn't negate the fact that legitimate rapes do occur and should be punished.

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Nor did I imply anything of the sort.

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On the other hand, we also know that a significant number of accused rapes are completely fabricated.




41%

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There are countless of other studies that show this number to be UNBELIEVABLY inflated.

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There are countless of other studies that show this number to be UNBELIEVABLY inflated.

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And this doesn't negate the fact that there is a fair number of accused rapes are fabricated.


I'm not saying that either of you guys are wrong. I would assume neither of you think its ok to rape someone or lie about being raped. I'm just trying to point out that we shouldn't judge Jameis OR his accuser until we know all the facts

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The median of all the cited studies on Wikipedia is 11.8%

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It also failed to mention the McDowell data, which I think is the most reliable of all the studies because of its adequate sample size and straightforward methodology. And also because the data was subsequently confirmed by additional data that was forcefully swept under the rug for political reasons.

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Dr. Charles P. McDowell of the U.S. Air Force Office of Special Investigations led a team that investigated 556 rape allegations. The initial research categorized 220 of those allegations as true, 80 as false, and 256 as inconclusive. When they announced their initial results, they'd categorized 46% of their data as inconclusive. This strongly suggests that their approach was cautious and objective. Advocacy researchers know the answer they want before they even start. It's unheard of for advocacy researchers to announce that the largest portion of their data was inconclusive.

The McDowell team then did a followup analysis. They recruited three independent reviewers to evaluate the inconclusive cases based on a list of criteria that were common among the women who had acknowledged they lied. (See below for an example of the sort of criteria that were used.) In order for any of the inconclusive cases to be recategorized as false, all three independent reviewers had to agree that it was false. The end result: 60% of the 556 rape allegations were determined to be false.

Even so, McDowell worried that his findings might not be representative outside a military context. So he then analyzed the police records of a major midwestern city and a city in the southwest. The results in those cities were consistent with the results of the Air Force analysis. But the cities feared political repercussions if it were publicly announced that 60% of reported rape allegations were false, so they requested anonymity.

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Scientists and researchers came come under a lot of criticism for publishing data that might be politically unpopular.* Which is why it's important to look at the methodology (i.e. read the reports) yourself and figure out what is credible.

What I'm getting at, is if you actually think the number is 11%, you're being naive. And I will acknowledge that, for various reasons, the percentage of fabricated rape claims is a tough number to definitively pin down. But based on the information I've read on the subject -- and I've read a lot...I wrote a paper on it in a law school seminar class -- any claim that rape accusations are being fabricated at a rate of less than 1 in 3 fails the straight-face test.

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*See "The Bell Curve", which was, and is, attacked for doing nothing other than presenting data. And doing so in the most meticulous and comprehensive manner that data could ever be presented.

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80/556 = 14% false

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Okay, I already posted this, but I"ll do it again.

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Charles P. McDowell, a researcher in the United States Air Force Special Studies Division, studied the 1,218 reports of rape that were made between 1980 and 1984 on Air Force bases throughout the world (McDowell, 1985). Of those, 460 were found to be "proven" allegations either because the "overwhelming preponderance of the evidence" strongly supported the allegation or because there was a conviction in the case. Another 212 of the total reports were found to be "disproved" as the alleged victim convincingly admitted the complaint was a "hoax" at some point during the initial investigation. The researchers then investigated the 546 remaining or "unresolved" rape allegations including having the accusers submit to a polygraph. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of these complainants admitted they had fabricated their accusation just before taking the polygraph or right after they failed the test. (It should be noted that whenever there was any doubt, the unresolved case was re-classified as a "proven" rape.) Combining this 27% with the initial 212 "disproved" cases, it was determined that approximately 45% of the total rape allegations were false

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It sounds extreme but if lying, the accuser should get the same sentence the person they accused would have gotten.

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This will lead to fewer women reporting rape because if the rapist gets away with it, then the woman faces jail time. Part of why so few rapes are reported is because of the negative consequences. Now you want to add more...

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Part of why so few rapes are reported is because of the negative consequences. Now you want to add more...

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You just stated that "so few rapes are reported". That's just a conclusion. Do you have any support for it?