Ziller on the Value of Assists

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For at least the last decade, data has suggested that the rate at which a team's field goals are assisted has little relationship to a team's shooting performance and no meaningful relationship to a team's overall offensive performance. The case held with last season's data: assist rate at the team level had a very small direct correlation with shooting percentage, but a stronger direct correlation with team turnover percentage. The overall impact on offense is negligible.

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This myth — that assists help offense — has one major ramification beyond the fetishization of point guard purity: it downplays the importance of shot creation in its other forms, which is the self-created shot. The important thing is getting high-percentage shots. Some of those are created by the pass. Some are created by single-player execution. The former tend to lead to more turnovers. That might mean that the latter are more important, though the data to determine that it's readily available. (There are also pretty big issues with determining what are high-percentage shots.)

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The Thunder remain the keystone of sorts in this mystery. Russell Westbrook creates more shots than anyone in the NBA, for himself and teammates. Kevin Durant needs little help getting shots off. The team is a rising No. 10 in offense this season; it finished No. 1 last season with the No. 28 assist percentage in the NBA.

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This is why shot creation itself is a skill we need to measure. The presence of more assist opportunities doesn't necessarily help an offense. Assist opportunities from the right players — effective shot creators — and to the right players — good shooters — is what matters

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