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QB first round or not?
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:07 am
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:07 am
In my league QBs score 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points for TDs (passing and rushing). Therefore, having a QB score in the 40s is commonplace, and 50-60 can happen multiple times in the year. If you get stuck with a below average QB scoring, you are losing serious points to the guys with elite QBs. So my question is: Should I take one in the first round?
To make things interesting, we have one keeper. I pick 4th overall, and the guys ahead of me are keeping Spiller, RGIII, and Peyton Manning, in that order. The guy keeping Spiller is selecting Peterson, and there's no doubt about it. The second pick will more than likely take a RB and the third will definitely take a RB with keeping Manning. That probably means that Brees will fall to me at 4, which before the keeper thing he never would have. I'm keeping David Wilson, so I already have my flex sowed up, and if he does really well, one of my starting backs.
With 3 RBs possible to go in front of my 4th pick, should I go with my 1st QB or select my highest ranked RB (non PPR), which I know AD will be gone, and any two of Martin, Charles, Foster, or Lynch will go. Also, only two guys are keeping QBs, which means there is a strong possibility that probably 4 QBs (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and one more) will go before my second round pick. Along with Spiller, Alfred Morris is being kept, so that's two top starting backs off the market before the draft starts.
What say you?
To make things interesting, we have one keeper. I pick 4th overall, and the guys ahead of me are keeping Spiller, RGIII, and Peyton Manning, in that order. The guy keeping Spiller is selecting Peterson, and there's no doubt about it. The second pick will more than likely take a RB and the third will definitely take a RB with keeping Manning. That probably means that Brees will fall to me at 4, which before the keeper thing he never would have. I'm keeping David Wilson, so I already have my flex sowed up, and if he does really well, one of my starting backs.
With 3 RBs possible to go in front of my 4th pick, should I go with my 1st QB or select my highest ranked RB (non PPR), which I know AD will be gone, and any two of Martin, Charles, Foster, or Lynch will go. Also, only two guys are keeping QBs, which means there is a strong possibility that probably 4 QBs (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and one more) will go before my second round pick. Along with Spiller, Alfred Morris is being kept, so that's two top starting backs off the market before the draft starts.
What say you?
7
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:13 am to jembeurt
Damn..1 point for 10 yards?
I'd go with a QB like Brees or Rodgers late in the 1st I guess.
I'd go with a QB like Brees or Rodgers late in the 1st I guess.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:14 am to jembeurt
With that format you have to take brees and keep him for as long as he is relevent. He is far and away the best player with that scoring. I would probably take him even if I had the 1st overall pick.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:15 am to jembeurt
I'd take Brees and whatever RB is left in the second round. Brees will get you the most points in that format, and paired with someone like Steven Jackson in the second would be a solid start.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:20 am to VermilionTiger
quote:
I'd go with a QB like Brees or Rodgers late in the 1st I guess.
I select 4th.
And to Peazey and Stick, that's why my decision is so tough. Brees is so valuable but there aren't that many top starting backs this year. I counted about 12 guys that are number one backs, and two are already being kept.
This post was edited on 8/27/13 at 8:24 am
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:26 am to jembeurt
The scoring for QBs doesn't matter. It's an even playing field and if you take a QB first you hurt your overall depth unless everyone else does too. Wait till the first few have come off while you get two top RB and then get one.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:26 am to jembeurt
Like others have said take Brees at 4. 
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:32 am to Clark W Griswold
quote:
It's an even playing field
Sort of, but not exactly. With that format the difference between the top 2 and the 10th-12h quarterbacks is made much larger. And the difference between the 3rd and 10th-12th rb is relatively much smaller. The only strategy that works with taking a rb first is if you are willing to bet on someone like Andrew Luck having a break out performance and being one of the top qb's in the league.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:12 am to jembeurt
quote:
What say you?
No.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:21 am to Peazey
Exactly. The difference last year between the no. 1 QB (Brees) and the number 6 QB (Romo and about the number QB I could expect for my second pick) was 45.55 - 37.68 = 7.87 per week or an 18 yard TD pass. To me that sounds significant. In 2011, it was 49.43 - 38.93 = 10.5!
Brees really skews these stats but there's no reason he shouldn't get close to an average of these last two years, even though that sounds ridiculous. Yea they will want to run the ball more, but Payton will keep Brees going strong.
Another thing to add is that we START 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, AND 1 Flex. WRs end up being pretty valuable due to teams HAVING to start 3 every week. If I go QB first, I have to go RB and WR in round 2 and 3. If I go RB first, and I go RB WR in round 2 and 3, that puts me behind the 8-ball hoping I get a steal at QB in round 4/5.
Brees really skews these stats but there's no reason he shouldn't get close to an average of these last two years, even though that sounds ridiculous. Yea they will want to run the ball more, but Payton will keep Brees going strong.
Another thing to add is that we START 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, AND 1 Flex. WRs end up being pretty valuable due to teams HAVING to start 3 every week. If I go QB first, I have to go RB and WR in round 2 and 3. If I go RB first, and I go RB WR in round 2 and 3, that puts me behind the 8-ball hoping I get a steal at QB in round 4/5.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:26 am to jembeurt
quote:
The difference last year between the no. 1 QB (Brees) and the number 6 QB (Romo and about the number QB I could expect for my second pick) was 45.55 - 37.68 = 7.87 per week or an 18 yard TD pass. To me that sounds significant. In 2011, it was 49.43 - 38.93 = 10.5!
Now go look at the RBs taken in round 1 and taken where Romo was drafted.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:41 am to jembeurt
I'd be hard to pass on a QB there, but talent at RB will drop significantly.
If you keep a QB, I would consider Rodgers. I think Brees will have the better season in 2013, but if you are considering keeping this QB in future years, I like Rodgers long term potential better. Sad to say, but I expect Brees' production to start tapering in the next couple of years.
If you keep a QB, I would consider Rodgers. I think Brees will have the better season in 2013, but if you are considering keeping this QB in future years, I like Rodgers long term potential better. Sad to say, but I expect Brees' production to start tapering in the next couple of years.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:44 am to LSUfan4444
According to the projections on fftoolbox, the difference in the score between the number 4 ranked rb, d. martin, and the number 14 ranked rb, s. jackson, is 47.3 for the season or 2.96 per game. That's a hell of a lot less than the 7-10 between brees and romo. Brees remains the better pick.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:18 am to Peazey
Yes, but Steven Jackson will go in the 2nd or 3rd round. You can get Romo much later than that.
Again, the comparison was made between Brees and Romo, so go compare that RBs taken in the first round are scoring to what RBs are taken in the 8th and 9th (or where Romo is being drafted in keeper leagues).
Again, the comparison was made between Brees and Romo, so go compare that RBs taken in the first round are scoring to what RBs are taken in the 8th and 9th (or where Romo is being drafted in keeper leagues).
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:20 am to LSUfan4444
quote:
Again, the comparison was made between Brees and Romo, so go compare that RBs taken in the first round are scoring to what RBs are taken in the 8th and 9th (or where Romo is being drafted in keeper leagues).
This is under the assumption that Romo will still be there in those rounds. In QB point-heavy leagues, QBs don't last that long. I see your point, but QBs are taken 2-4 rounds earlier than they are in standard leagues.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:28 am to LSUfan4444
You are holding things constant that shouldn't be held constant. You are ignoring context.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:30 am to Flat Stick
Which is why I said wherever he will be drafted. If it's the fifth, compare a 1st round RB to a 5th round RB and you'll see a higher point total from Romo and a 1st round RB than Brees and 5th round RB (unless you hit the RB jackpot).
The expected point differential between QBs this year is just too small. With the opportunity to grab Martin, Charles, Foster, or Lynch plus pairing it with Romo/Ryan/Brady you're looking at a better ouput than Brees and Ryan Mathews or Daryl Richardson.
The expected point differential between QBs this year is just too small. With the opportunity to grab Martin, Charles, Foster, or Lynch plus pairing it with Romo/Ryan/Brady you're looking at a better ouput than Brees and Ryan Mathews or Daryl Richardson.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:33 am to Flat Stick
First thanks Peazey for running that. I had to step out of the office.
Second, don't get caught on Romo exactly. I was using him cause he was the 6th highest QB last season. So I essentially will be looking at my 5-6th best QB in round 2. Also, if I take Brees first, I will HOPEFULLY be looking at one of Forte, MJD, or CJ as my no 1 back in round 2 and REALLY HOPEFULLY S. Jackson in the 3rd. Maybe more the likes of Gore, Bush, Murray (Ridley is being kept as well).
If I go QB, RB, RB, I'm scrambling the rest of the year to find 3 WRs to start each week, while hoping Brees does what he does, and I get good value from those RBs I mentioned earlier. However, if I go WR with any of my top 3 picks, I'm looking at starting one of David Wilson (my keeper) or one of Sproles, Lacy, M. Bell, Matthews, or Bradshaw, with the other being my flex. That scares me a little.
Second, don't get caught on Romo exactly. I was using him cause he was the 6th highest QB last season. So I essentially will be looking at my 5-6th best QB in round 2. Also, if I take Brees first, I will HOPEFULLY be looking at one of Forte, MJD, or CJ as my no 1 back in round 2 and REALLY HOPEFULLY S. Jackson in the 3rd. Maybe more the likes of Gore, Bush, Murray (Ridley is being kept as well).
If I go QB, RB, RB, I'm scrambling the rest of the year to find 3 WRs to start each week, while hoping Brees does what he does, and I get good value from those RBs I mentioned earlier. However, if I go WR with any of my top 3 picks, I'm looking at starting one of David Wilson (my keeper) or one of Sproles, Lacy, M. Bell, Matthews, or Bradshaw, with the other being my flex. That scares me a little.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:36 am to jembeurt
quote:
Second, don't get caught on Romo exactly. I was using him cause he was the 6th highest QB last season. So I essentially will be looking at my 5-6th best QB in round 2. Also, if I take Brees first, I will HOPEFULLY be looking at one of Forte, MJD, or CJ as my no 1 back in round 2 and REALLY HOPEFULLY S. Jackson in the 3rd. Maybe more the likes of Gore, Bush, Murray (Ridley is being kept as well)
By the same token, you could grab Martin, Charles, Foster, or Lynch then hopefully grab Forte, MJD, or CJ as you would do if you drafted Brees. Then, next time around grab a QB in the third and likely grab a top 5-7 fantasy scorer from a year ago.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:37 am to LSUfan4444
Either way, good luck
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