re: LSU 9 to 1 Odds to Win BCS Title

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And so now in 2013, with a record number of NFL early draftees gone from a loaded 2012 team that still dropped 2 regular season games last season, plus the bowl game.

Coupled to a Bama team that's won three of the last four natty crowns, and b-2-b champ, with a roster still largely intact, full of Saban #1 classes in waves, and full of young defensive contributors that only figure to improve an already dominant Saban D. Urban Meyer with easy schedule, loaded Lville out of Mickey Mouse conference, Oregon/Stanford out west,etc..

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Bama had 9 players drafted, including 3 1st rounders. LSU had 9 players drafted as well, and only 2 1st rounders. Additionally, one of their draftees didn't play last season.

I'm just saying, if you think LSU is gonna take a huge step because of the draft, then the same logic applies to Bama. It's also worth pointing out that Bama and LSU have gone 2-2 against one another in the past three seasons, and their team records are nearly identical (Bama has one more win).

But I'd put my money on Okie St, Georgia, and South Carolina. Great odds, and really good teams. I'd also consider a longshot on Wisconsin. But 9-1 for LSU to win the SEC sounds about right, and 20-1 to win the BCS (that's about right for a team ranked 10-15 in the nation, which will be our preseason rank).

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Bama had 9 players drafted,

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5 on offense
4 on defense

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LSU had 9 players drafted as well,

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7 on defense (8 if you count TM7)
1 on offense


There's a little more balance on Bama's side. Our defense has been our bread and butter and losing those guys, who were not only talented, but our team leaders (Reid, Sam, Logan, Minter) is going to be tough to replace.

Even if we recruit well.... still going to be hard. We don't return a DE that had a sack last year. We're replacing our MLB who was the best player on our defense last year, as well as the leader in the DB in Reid.

We benefit from the amount of subs that happen during a game. Second and even third string gets a lot of reps. The drop off here is not what it is elsewhere.

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There's a little more balance on Bama's side. Our defense has been our bread and butter and losing those guys, who were not only talented, but our team leaders (Reid, Sam, Logan, Minter) is going to be tough to replace.

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Minter is impossible to replace, though I think our overall LB unit will be better. This is the best LB unit we've had in 20 years (which isn't that big of a statement, for a team that's had so many great defenses, LSU's strength has never been LB).

Reid was not very good last year. I think he's going to be a star in the NFL, and he was great in 2011, but he had a pretty dismal 2012, as he spent more time looking for highlight reel plays than playing good D. I was massively disappointed in Reid.

Mingo wasn't really a team leader (and Freak was just as productive in more limited action in terms of TFL's and sacks) and Sam's checking out has been commented on ad naseum, even by Sam. I actually think losing their leadership is a positive, as they weren't the leaders Paterson and Taylor were (though minter again, is a huge huge HUGE loss).

Does anyone honestly believe LSU's defense is going to take a massive step back?

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That's their odds to win the SEC, not the BCS...

...I know, same thing. Just sayin'.

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Huge difference actually.

TheGreek and Pinny both quoting LSU to win BCS at a meager 15/1..LSU is 6.5/1 to win SEC at Greek..10/1 to win SEC at LV Superbook.

P.S. Great points Baloo and Lester.

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TheRoarRestoredInBR

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I'm still waiting for you to link me all these posts in this thread where people were acting like 9/1 was free money. I reread the thread and I still can't find them.

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you lose 6 would-be SENIORS on your defense. S-I-X.

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I'm not doubting you, but I'm missing someone (Sam, Mingo, Minter, Reid, Simon). Who's #6?

But every team has losses. Did you know only seven guys started at least 12 games last year? Not surprisingly, these are LSU's 7 leading tacklers last year. How many are coming back?

Three.

Not ideal, but also not catastrophic. And all three were among LSU's top five tacklers. Three LSU players had 10 TFL's last year. One returns (Freak). 10 of LSU's 18 interceptions return. Yes, there are losses, but they are not nearly as catastrophic as they are being hyped to be.

Actually, I think both the LB corps and secondary will be better. LSU won't be starting two freshmen at corner this year when we go to the nickel. The LB corps returns 26 of 39 starts, but those starts are divided among six players. There's are wealth of experience there (and all four starters in the secondary this year had at least one start last season).

The line is a huge concern. LSU lost a ton up front. But I think an improved secondary and LB corps will keep the D on about the same level.

I'm just tired of Chicken Littles. We hear them every year, and they've been consistently wrong about the program. The program is not collapsing. Is LSU the favorite? No. But they are a legit contender.

I put 100 on the saints and lsu to win it all and got them both at 16 to 1

9-1 sounds perfect to me.