UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch | Page 5 | TigerDroppings.com

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BRgetthenet
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


Goin up the east coast. Forget it. Move along.





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SpicyStacy
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


need another big storm. Made a killing last year off of Isaac *ducks*





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rds dc
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

I don't think he's going to be a heavy hitter unless something changes, but I could see a Cat 1 if he's able to clear out the SAL in front of him efficiently.


Yeah, I agree with that. There is surprisingly little SAL right now for this time of the season. The TUTT out in front of the system is one of the keys to watch at this point. Models are notoriously bad handling TUTT / ULL and the spacing between it and the system could be a big player. If it stays far enough away then it can actually enhance outflow but if it gets too close then it will start to shear the system.






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HoLeInOnEr05
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


How much did you charge him an hour?





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SpicyStacy
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


a gazillion dollas




oh hayyy stranger






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hg
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


Can't wait





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dawgfan24348
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


Thank you South Carolina and Florida for being our buffer from hurricanes.


This post was edited on 7/25 at 7:29 am


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Mac
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


So IF it was going to make landfall in LA can you give a rough window of when that might happen?





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LSUfan4444
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

The path of Dorian next week will depend on the strength of the tropical system itself and other weather systems surrounding it. Currently, Dorian was moving swiftly along to the west-northwest at around 17 mph.

"It is too early to say with confidence for next week where Dorian will track and what the strength will be," Kottlowski added.
It could be scooped up by the back side of high pressure near Bermuda over the Atlantic Ocean. In this scenario, the feature could then travel along the East coast of the United States.
Another scenario allows Dorian to miss the "right turn lane" and continue west-northwestward brushing northern shores of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.
In the middle of this wide window and a third scenario is for the system to reach the southeastern U.S. with drenching rainfall more than a week away from now, around the first weekend of August.
In addition to potential fringe-effect impact in the Lesser and Greater Antilles, people in the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should closely monitor the path and strength of Dorian. These areas are currently in a higher risk for the storm to pass very close by next week.










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TDsngumbo
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

So IF it was going to make landfall in LA can you give a rough window of when that might happen?


IF, and that's a huge IF, it makes landfall in Louisiana, it would be Thursday or Friday of next week.






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TheWhizzinator
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


This better not mess up my caribbean vacation plans late next week





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TDsngumbo
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

This better not mess up my caribbean vacation plans late next week


It's possible. You definitely need to keep an eye on this one if you're going to the Caribbean late next week.
It's just as possible that it will remain on a westward or westnorthwestward track as it can begin to turn north. We are simply too far out right now for us to have a great idea of it either way. As of now, it looks like one for south Florida and the Bahamas to pay very close attention to.



This post was edited on 7/25 at 1:48 pm


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TheWhizzinator
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


I'm covered either way with travel insurance and the owner of the cottage on St John said he would refund me if it looks sketchy 3 days ahead of time but it would still suck to not be able to go.

Leaving from Nola Thursday morning



This post was edited on 7/25 at 1:54 pm


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TDsngumbo
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

Leaving from Nola Thursday morning


If this thing is in the Gulf on Thursday, you're not leaving from New Orleans and heading anywhere southeast from there.






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Paul Allen
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


Have we seen any of the more recent models as far as where it's going?





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tigersnipen
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Member since Dec 2006
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

the Bahamas


Sigh... I didn't get the travel insurance leaving Monday and coming back Sunday... looks like i'm screwed. I can't believe my luck.






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LSUfan4444
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch








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TheWhizzinator
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

If this thing is in the Gulf on Thursday, you're not leaving from New Orleans and heading anywhere southeast from there.


That's what I'm afraid of...turn bitch turn!!






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TheWhizzinator
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


quote:

Sigh... I didn't get the travel insurance leaving Monday and coming back Sunday... looks like i'm screwed. I can't believe my luck.


First time I ever have. Decided to based on my wife possibly having to work and it being hurricane season. I had to pay extra for the work insurance part.






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LSUfan4444
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re: UPDATED - Tropical Storm Dorian thread - Looks like one to watch


The band of moist, unstable air to its southwest that has been feeding Dorian the past two days is forecast to get cut off on Friday, which will leave the storm isolated in a region with relatively dry, stable air. However, the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the low range through Sunday, so there may be no mechanism to drive dry air into the storm to weaken it significantly. Ocean temperatures will begin to rise significantly next two days, reaching 27°C by Friday night and 28°C by Sunday. This increase in water temperature may counteract the more stable air Dorian will be in, allowing the storm to maintain its strength. Given its small size, Dorian is capable of relatively large changes in intensity in a short amount of time, and it would not surprise me if the storm dissipated by the end of the week--or became a Category 1 hurricane. The official NHC forecast of a tropical storm passing just north of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday is the most likely outcome; the 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Dorian a 25 - 32% chance of being a hurricane at that time. Since Dorian is a small storm, the impacts to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be minor, if the core of the storm passes more than 50 miles to the north of the islands, as the official NHC forecast currently anticipates. It currently appears that Dorian will be a potential threat to the Bahama Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast next week. There will be a trough of low pressure capable of recurving Dorian out to sea before the storm reaches the Bahamas and U.S., but it is uncertain if this trough will be strong enough to do the trick.


This post was edited on 7/25 at 2:06 pm


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