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Started By
Message
re: The Championships, Wimbledon 2013 Official Thread
Posted on 6/19/13 at 7:58 am to bobbyray21
Posted on 6/19/13 at 7:58 am to bobbyray21
Any bets bobby?
1
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:01 am to Roscoe
quote:
I would just make this the thread. The draw should be out by end of the week and that may keep this from being buried.
Title changed. Hopefully they'll sticky it like last year.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:02 am to HottyToddy17
quote:
Any bets bobby?
Small bets today on Seppi, Kohlschreiber, and Rhyne.
ETA: -160, -140, and +125, respectively
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 8:04 am
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:03 am to bobbyray21
I gotta say, though. Grass is the toughest surface to handicap tennis.
ETA: The reason being is two-fold:
1) The points are shorter, which makes the matches shorter, which adds to the variance.
2) Because there essentially is no grass court season, it's really tough to tell -- with some exceptions -- how good various players are on the surface. I put a small play yesterday on Kevin Anderson thinking he'd be solid on grass, and he got whupped up on.
ETA: The reason being is two-fold:
1) The points are shorter, which makes the matches shorter, which adds to the variance.
2) Because there essentially is no grass court season, it's really tough to tell -- with some exceptions -- how good various players are on the surface. I put a small play yesterday on Kevin Anderson thinking he'd be solid on grass, and he got whupped up on.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 8:10 am
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:11 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Small bets today on Seppi, Kohlschreiber, and Rhyne.
ETA: -160, -140, and +125, respectively
Not confident?
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:13 am to HottyToddy17
SIAP, but Rafa got a five seed. That is a frick job by the seeding committee, I thought they don't have to follow rankings.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:18 am to HottyToddy17
quote:
Not confident?
I like the plays, but I lost my first grass-court play, so I'm gonna be a bit cautious with my amounts until I get in a rhythm. During clay court season, I was on goddamn fire. I hit 13 out of 15 at one point, and those plays were on average under 2-1. And then of course I risked like 8 million to win 300 on Serena in the semis and the finals, but in reality there was no risk at all because Serena Williams simply doesn't lose at the game of tennis.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:19 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
SIAP, but Rafa got a five seed. That is a frick job by the seeding committee, I thought they don't have to follow rankings.
They don't, but they did.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:20 am to bobbyray21
Kudla is officially in the main draw and is ROLLING.
Keep an eye on him. If he gets a decent draw, I can see him making a decent run.
Keep an eye on him. If he gets a decent draw, I can see him making a decent run.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:21 am to bobbyray21
But Serena's the only female I'll bet on.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:23 am to bobbyray21
I'm kicking myself for not taking Tomic. He was +165, and I thought he would win but then I didn't take him because I never take him because I try not to bet on crazy people. I should have put more stock in the fact that he's good at the game of tennis.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:36 am to bobbyray21
The BR21 Pre-Draw Wimby Analysis:
Roger Federer is past the point of no return. He has hit the wall. He isn't winning another major. And I would be willing to bet money on that. Just name the price. I'm in. I'm not hating, and I'm not trying to be a dick or start a Rafa v. Fed holy war. But there comes a point in every athlete's career where he is simply never going to be the player that he once was. For example, I really like Mike Tyson, and I always hoped that the up-to-and-including-the-Spinks-fight version of Tyson would reappear in every fight of his that I watched. But that Tyson was done. Now in that case, it wasn't age, it was the fact that he fired Kevin Rooney and was thus never properly trained to fight in the style that Cus taught him, which was the style he HAD to fight in to be effective, but the analogy remains the same. Federer has been losing matches over the last six months that he never would have lost at any point since 2003. The guy is clearly done. I'm saying it without equivocation or qualification. Insert fork. Done.
This tournament is much more wide open than was the French. Andy Murray can win it. Rafael Nadal can win it. Novak Djokovic can win it. And I wouldn't even completely rule out a sleeper coming out of nowhere and winning it. I'm thinking about guys like Berdych, Tsonga, Cilic, Tommy Haas???.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but I think Andy Murray is the favorite to win this tournament. He made it to the finals last year. And then a few weeks later he avenged his loss to Federer by putting an absolute beatdown on him at the olympics. I think that means a lot. He knows he can win the tournament, and you know he wants to win the tournament. I'm not saying he is the overwhelming favorite, but I would put him as the slight favorite with Djokovic coming in right behind him as the #2.
Djokovic is still the best tennis player in the world. He damn near beat the greatest clay court player of all time in the semifinals at Roland Garros. He's clearly playing very well. He will be on opposite sides of the draw from Murray, so they can't meet up until the final.
I think that Rafa is the third most likely to win the tournament. But a lot is going to depend on his draw. He is going to be the fifth seed, and so he could end up having to play, say, Federer in the quarters, Murray in the semis, and then Djokovic in the final. Which would be brutal. Or he could find himself in the same quadrant as his regular whipping boy Ferrer, which would be much less brutal. We just don't know. But I do think he has a legit chance of winning the tournament. Let's not forget that's he's actually a pretty good grass court player. He lost to Fed in the Wimby finals in 2006 and 2007. He then beat Fed in the final in 2008. He didn't play in 2009. He then won again in 2010, and then lost in the final to Djokovic in 2011. Last year of course was the Lukas Rosol stunner, which was clearly a fluke in view of the totality of the evidence.
Ferrer has negative 11,000% chance of winning.
Del Potro has zero chance of winning.
Berdych and Tsonga could potentially win.
Can Dimitrov play on grass? I'll keep an eye out for him.
I think Milos Raonic blows, but grass does suit his serve-bot game.
Marin Cilic just lost a tight match to Murray in the Queens club final.
Or maybe an American hopeful will make a run. Kudla is playing really well. I'll refrain from mentioning Williams until he is in fact officially in the draw so as to avoid jinxing him.
Roger Federer is past the point of no return. He has hit the wall. He isn't winning another major. And I would be willing to bet money on that. Just name the price. I'm in. I'm not hating, and I'm not trying to be a dick or start a Rafa v. Fed holy war. But there comes a point in every athlete's career where he is simply never going to be the player that he once was. For example, I really like Mike Tyson, and I always hoped that the up-to-and-including-the-Spinks-fight version of Tyson would reappear in every fight of his that I watched. But that Tyson was done. Now in that case, it wasn't age, it was the fact that he fired Kevin Rooney and was thus never properly trained to fight in the style that Cus taught him, which was the style he HAD to fight in to be effective, but the analogy remains the same. Federer has been losing matches over the last six months that he never would have lost at any point since 2003. The guy is clearly done. I'm saying it without equivocation or qualification. Insert fork. Done.
This tournament is much more wide open than was the French. Andy Murray can win it. Rafael Nadal can win it. Novak Djokovic can win it. And I wouldn't even completely rule out a sleeper coming out of nowhere and winning it. I'm thinking about guys like Berdych, Tsonga, Cilic, Tommy Haas???.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but I think Andy Murray is the favorite to win this tournament. He made it to the finals last year. And then a few weeks later he avenged his loss to Federer by putting an absolute beatdown on him at the olympics. I think that means a lot. He knows he can win the tournament, and you know he wants to win the tournament. I'm not saying he is the overwhelming favorite, but I would put him as the slight favorite with Djokovic coming in right behind him as the #2.
Djokovic is still the best tennis player in the world. He damn near beat the greatest clay court player of all time in the semifinals at Roland Garros. He's clearly playing very well. He will be on opposite sides of the draw from Murray, so they can't meet up until the final.
I think that Rafa is the third most likely to win the tournament. But a lot is going to depend on his draw. He is going to be the fifth seed, and so he could end up having to play, say, Federer in the quarters, Murray in the semis, and then Djokovic in the final. Which would be brutal. Or he could find himself in the same quadrant as his regular whipping boy Ferrer, which would be much less brutal. We just don't know. But I do think he has a legit chance of winning the tournament. Let's not forget that's he's actually a pretty good grass court player. He lost to Fed in the Wimby finals in 2006 and 2007. He then beat Fed in the final in 2008. He didn't play in 2009. He then won again in 2010, and then lost in the final to Djokovic in 2011. Last year of course was the Lukas Rosol stunner, which was clearly a fluke in view of the totality of the evidence.
Ferrer has negative 11,000% chance of winning.
Del Potro has zero chance of winning.
Berdych and Tsonga could potentially win.
Can Dimitrov play on grass? I'll keep an eye out for him.
I think Milos Raonic blows, but grass does suit his serve-bot game.
Marin Cilic just lost a tight match to Murray in the Queens club final.
Or maybe an American hopeful will make a run. Kudla is playing really well. I'll refrain from mentioning Williams until he is in fact officially in the draw so as to avoid jinxing him.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:37 am to bobbyray21
Yessir
Love me some spring/summer golf and tennis action
Federer
Love me some spring/summer golf and tennis action
Federer
Posted on 6/19/13 at 8:44 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Roger Federer is past the point of no return. He has hit the wall. He isn't winning another major. And I would be willing to bet money on that. Just name the price. I'm in. I'm not hating, and I'm not trying to be a dick or start a Rafa v. Fed holy war. But there comes a point in every athlete's career where he is simply never going to be the player that he once was. For example, I really like Mike Tyson, and I always hoped that the up-to-and-including-the-Spinks-fight version of Tyson would reappear in every fight of his that I watched. But that Tyson was done. Now in that case, it wasn't age, it was the fact that he fired Kevin Rooney and was thus never properly trained to fight in the style that Cus taught him, which was the style he HAD to fight in to be effective, but the analogy remains the same. Federer has been losing matches over the last six months that he never would have lost at any point since 2003. The guy is clearly done. I'm saying it without equivocation or qualification. Insert fork. Done.
And if he proves me wrong, I will publicly admit that I am a moron, a douchebag, a loser, a botched abortion, and that my mother is a filthy whore. I will further acknowledge that Roger Federer is and will always always remain the greatest tennis player of all time.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:06 am to bobbyray21
Good stuff 
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:57 am to HottyToddy17
Kohlschreiber lost the first set and Seppi is about to lose his first set. Maybe grass-court gambling isn't my thing.
BTW, I hate Radek Stepanek. Have y'all ever seen him play? He has the worst strokes of any professional tennis player I've ever seen. You're watching him play and you'd swear you could beat him. His game is that awkward looking.
BTW, I hate Radek Stepanek. Have y'all ever seen him play? He has the worst strokes of any professional tennis player I've ever seen. You're watching him play and you'd swear you could beat him. His game is that awkward looking.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:59 am to bobbyray21
Bobby you're breaking my heart with that Fed talk
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:02 am to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
Bobby you're breaking my heart with that Fed talk
Do you disagree?
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:22 am to bobbyray21
Honestly I've been really busy this year and haven't watched as much tennis as I normally do. I just assumed he was around the same level as last year, which I thought was still good enough to possibly pull out a slam win given the right circumstances. I respect your opinion though, which is why it makes me sad bro
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:48 am to bobbyray21
quote:
The Championships, Wimbledon 2013 Official Thread
quote:
Kudla and Williams are into the second round
they already started?
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 10:49 am
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