the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread | TigerDroppings.com

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ThaBigFella
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the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread



I say 14,600 or so 5-6% off the highs.....

I think bernanke comes out june 18 and says "tapering? i trolled all of you, we're printing more baby how can we possibly stop!!!"







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Ace Midnight
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Member since Dec 2006
32553 posts

re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

I say 14,600 or so 5-6% off the highs.....


While I don't think it will go below 14,000, I'm thinking lower than 14,600 - more like 14,250 or 14,300, possibly a little closer to 14,000.






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ThaBigFella
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


fwiw Im loving every bit of this, I just bought a ton of PM in the high 90's didn't think i was gonna see that again before the september dividend increase





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Lsut81
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Member since Jun 2005
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

the "correction" seems to have begun.....


And you say that why???

Just curious






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ThaBigFella
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Member since Apr 2006
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


well we're

-500 pts give or take off of the high
-the media seems to be pimping the thought of bernanke tapering
-we've been down more days than up recently






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Ace Midnight
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Currently asymptomatic
Member since Dec 2006
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

well we're

-500 pts give or take off of the high
-the media seems to be pimping the thought of bernanke tapering
-we've been down more days than up recently


I'm not even ready to call it, quite yet, but your analysis is sound. I thought the same thing a couple of days ago.






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ThaBigFella
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Member since Apr 2006
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


fwiw ace, im pretty certain there will be no tapering. The media loves to fear monger for ratings, but even a half percent uptick in the rate is atrocious when you as a country owe 17 TRILLION.

I already saw 30 year mortgage rates here in florida were 4.125% at the bank yesterday so rates are creeping up. I also feel this quarter is gonna be ugly with all the sequester victims and their spending habits hampered this quarter, we shall see, but im very optimistic long term and happy I can buy more PM and MO at great yields helping with my long term goals!






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Volvagia
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


It started just after I started to put some extra cash in

Knew I should have waited.







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Lsut81
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Member since Jun 2005
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

well we're

-500 pts give or take off of the high
-the media seems to be pimping the thought of bernanke tapering
-we've been down more days than up recently


I'm not saying you're wrong, just looking for your thinking... I def think a correction is coming, but it seems like this recent fluctuation has been more based off of Japans markets






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Ace Midnight
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Currently asymptomatic
Member since Dec 2006
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

I'm not saying you're wrong, just looking for your thinking... I def think a correction is coming, but it seems like this recent fluctuation has been more based off of Japans markets


I don't think it matters where the trigger comes from - everybody has been sitting on pins and needles - it will not take much to tip this market into bear country, at least for 3 or 4 months.

However, I don't see a 20%, like usual - closer to 8%, maybe.






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Clyde Tipton
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


I never post here, but always lurk.

Are y'all suggesting selling and taking some profits, then reinvesting around fall?

For example, I rode LNG up to $30 from $12.25 in the last year and a half or so... it's down to $27 and change today which is still good profit if I decided to sell.






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Lsut81
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

However, I don't see a 20%, like usual - closer to 8%, maybe.


Agree, although when the Fed pulls the rug out from under the market and stops pumping, who knows what will happen.






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ThaBigFella
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


no I don't sell anything ever, just keep buying, look I'm not a trader by any means but I did intern at a wealth management firm when I was 16 almost 20 years ago and I worked at a firm that had a few billion under management then.

The manager I worked for basically said he didn't understand people moving in and out of trades so much, he said you can't flip houses in and out a few times a day and that people should be accumulators bc even dog stocks that yield 3-4% in a decade with 0 growth and reinvested dividends would return nearly 50% with NO GROWTH. So from then on I've been an acucmulator, buying and never selling, I'll leave the trading to the wall street types, I just buy big brands with nice dividends and reinvest those dividends, it's worked well for nearly 20 years and I see some of my returns over 500% or more on some shares I bought years ago and it makes me more of a believer than ever in buying and holding.

Yes I know about eastman kodak and yes I know GE cut its dividends but I still believe in the the theory and its worked well for myself



This post was edited on 6/5 at 11:39 am


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L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
16685 posts

re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


BigFella.......interesting longterm strategy........

How many longterm stocks are you holding?

You never EVER walk even when the profits are there?

I understand where you are coming from but if you bought AAPL at 100 and it was at 500 I'd think selling half would have to benefit you long term?

I also look for nice dividend stocks........

Can you share a few of your favorites?






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OnTheBrink
Alabama Fan
TN
Member since Mar 2012
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

I also look for nice dividend stocks........


Not Bigfella, but UAN.






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Lsut81
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Member since Jun 2005
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


Down 189 as of right now... I'm glad I sold off a big chunk last week... Sitting on the cash, waiting to put it into something else.





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ThaBigFella
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


Well apple isn't what I look for in a long term holding, but i do hold a little. I'd say 90% of holdings are things that aren't consumer driven companies like apple. Apple has awesome products but tech companies come and go. Im mostly companies that consumers must have and integral parts of our day to day lives, apple could have new competition emerge whenever but these companies are pretty much staples

Philip morris
Altria
Visa
Coke
Exxon
Chevron
Conoco
Shell

Those are my core core holdings with Philip Morris Altria making up about 70% I know I know not good, but I've been buying altria since I was 16 almost 20 years ago bc the money manager i worked for preached how it was his favorite stock and the dividend was massive at the time. Well after many splits and the PM spinoff i ended up with a giant chunk of MO,PM and I've seen how unreal they've performed over the last 20 years so I keep adding more, I'm so far in the green I could care less where my new purchases go up or down as long as they add more to my dividend stream to fund an early retirement i hope

but i do think over the next 20 years visa will be the best performing dividend stock, their dividend growth rate is staggering and its only .75% today. That combined with the fact only 20% of the world uses credit cards and visa basically operates on an 80% margin(look at their balance sheet). I feel it will be a story 20-30 years from now



This post was edited on 6/5 at 12:01 pm


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L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


I would have had to sell some Altra at 70 in 05


This post was edited on 6/5 at 12:01 pm


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gatorsimz
Florida Fan
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Member since Feb 2009
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


quote:

but i do think over the next 20 years visa will be the best performing dividend stock, their dividend growth rate is staggering and its only .75% today. That combined with the fact only 20% of the world uses credit cards and visa basically operates on an 80% margin(look at their balance sheet).


I really like Discover. They've been killing it and still trading under 10 p/e. It's near its 52 week high but still a great value.






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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
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Member since Apr 2006
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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread


discover is nice but as someone who owns 4 convenience stores, I can tell you discover is nowhere near 5% of my sales. I see the per card fees when i close my batches and visa is well over 50% but best of luck to you





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