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Interesting Tidbit on the Sell In May theory...
Posted on 4/30/13 at 9:53 am
Posted on 4/30/13 at 9:53 am
From the Stock Traders Almanac
If you invested $10,000 in the Dow in 1950 and only kept the money in stocks
from November thru April you would have $684,073 at the end of 2011. If you
reversed the strategy and invested for the May- October period you would have
lost -$1,024 over the same 61 year period
Does this mean the market will go down in May? Nope, nothing is definite. But summer has been historically tough on stocks.
If you invested $10,000 in the Dow in 1950 and only kept the money in stocks
from November thru April you would have $684,073 at the end of 2011. If you
reversed the strategy and invested for the May- October period you would have
lost -$1,024 over the same 61 year period
Does this mean the market will go down in May? Nope, nothing is definite. But summer has been historically tough on stocks.
This post was edited on 4/30/13 at 9:58 am
Posted on 4/30/13 at 11:09 am to LSU0358
Yes, I posted a graph on that at one point.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 11:17 am to LSU0358
It keeps happening, year after year. Don't know why but it does.
'09 - Markets went up but that was after the '08 sell-off.
'10 - BP Oil Spill
'11 - Greece
'12 - Spain
'13 - ???? Possibly budget/debt ceiling in the US
'09 - Markets went up but that was after the '08 sell-off.
'10 - BP Oil Spill
'11 - Greece
'12 - Spain
'13 - ???? Possibly budget/debt ceiling in the US
Posted on 4/30/13 at 11:23 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
BennyAndTheInkJets
Isn't there typically much lower volume too which could exagerate any bias?
Posted on 4/30/13 at 11:45 am to LSU0358
that is interesting.... to say the least...
thanks for posting..
thanks for posting..
Posted on 4/30/13 at 11:53 am to LSU0358
Hmmmm....so should I get out of my 401k target retirement fund and into a bond fund until the fall?
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:03 pm to ZereauxSum
quote:
Hmmmm....so should I get out of my 401k target retirement fund and into a bond fund until the fall?
Yeah, but only if you time the market just right
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:06 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
'13 - ???? Possibly budget/debt ceiling in the US
Benny is talking tomorrow. He could do the trick. There is also rumors of a ECB rate cut. A rate cut not occuring could also do the trick.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:07 pm to Janky
Really depends, in just the past 5 Mays volume fell in '08 and '09 but rose/slightly rose in '10-'12. Pre-crisis I'm pretty sure your point is correct, but I need to confirm.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:10 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Yeah, but only if you time the market just right
I'm not nearly smart enough for all of that
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:24 pm to ZereauxSum
quote:
I'm not nearly smart enough for all of that
Neither is anyone else
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:36 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
quote:
I'm not nearly smart enough for all of that
Neither is anyone else
Agree. Just because in general (aka looking at 61 years of data) a method works. The 1 time out of 5 it doesn't could be devastating. Or in this case, could cause one to miss out on huge gains.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:42 pm to LSU0358
quote:
The 1 time out of 5 it doesn't could be devastating. Or in this case, could cause one to miss out on huge gains.
Or save you form huge losses. No one knows what will happen, but history has proven this theory has some merit.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 12:56 pm to Janky
quote:
No one knows what will happen, but history has proven this theory has some merit.
I personally think a pull back in the 5%+ range is coming. But I've been thinking that since Dow 14,000.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 1:45 pm to LSU0358
Is there any info or can someone figure out what the return is of theory is left alone (invested the entire year) for the same time period?
Posted on 4/30/13 at 1:59 pm to skidry
Posted on 4/30/13 at 2:12 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Is there any info or can someone figure out what the return is of theory is left alone (invested the entire year) for the same time period?
I found this.
quote:
Over the last 47 years, the value of one dollar has declined 86%. It now takes $7 to buy what $1 would buy in the 1965. If you stashed $10,000 under the mattress in the mid 1960's – it would have the same purchasing power as $1,500 today.On the other hand, if you put that same $10,000 in a S&P 500 index fund over the same time period – it would be worth $649,300 today.
Posted on 4/30/13 at 2:49 pm to LSU0358
you guys all act like youre hotshot wall street traders
almost 20 years ago I got $1000 in 5 big companies as a gift as a 16 year old and today without even being touched theyre worth about $45,000.......WHO CARES ABOUT 5% CORRECTIONS!!!! That money went through these issues
1.tech bubble
2.y2k
3.9/11
4.iraq war
5.housing crisis
6.obama being elected/end of the world
and it still grew to the tune of nearly 900%
Seriously if you like it buy it,sit on it, reinvest the dividends and smile in the future, quit trying to time the market none of us are that good!!!! I love how people talk about buying and selling like they're moving $100k around and actually making giant profits......the stress isn't worth it guys.....buy and hold, i promise you will be richer than you can imagine.....o and buy every opportunity you can too!
almost 20 years ago I got $1000 in 5 big companies as a gift as a 16 year old and today without even being touched theyre worth about $45,000.......WHO CARES ABOUT 5% CORRECTIONS!!!! That money went through these issues
1.tech bubble
2.y2k
3.9/11
4.iraq war
5.housing crisis
6.obama being elected/end of the world
and it still grew to the tune of nearly 900%
Seriously if you like it buy it,sit on it, reinvest the dividends and smile in the future, quit trying to time the market none of us are that good!!!! I love how people talk about buying and selling like they're moving $100k around and actually making giant profits......the stress isn't worth it guys.....buy and hold, i promise you will be richer than you can imagine.....o and buy every opportunity you can too!
This post was edited on 4/30/13 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 4/30/13 at 3:05 pm to ThaBigFella
quote:
you guys all act like youre hotshot wall street traders
What do you mean, you guys?
You know damn well my investing philosophy almost mirrors yours exactly, you Statist Bastard.
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