Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell | TigerDroppings.com

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ThaBigFella
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baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


As an operator of exxon stores, I'm a big fan of exxon. I've owned exxon stock since I was 16 and it's performed admirably in the last 20 years, but the last few years have been pretty stagnant to unspectacular in relation to the entire market and honestly in relation to other BIG OIL like Chevron.

Exxon seems to have a bright future as the largest NG producer and the fact we're one crisis away from energy price spikes, so I ask some of you engineers and people in the field, what's up with exxon these days? Is it a buy, hold or sell

Compared to other oil giants

CVX has a 3% yield
Shell has a 5%+ yield
Conoco has 4.4% yield
Sinopec has a 4% yield
Total has a 6% yield
BP has a 4%+ yield

So at the level's exxon trade at presently with a 2.5% yield, that does grow which is is nice......do you buy it or one of the others. For the record, I hold CVX,RDS.B,COP, and SNP already just looking at Exxon and contemplating what to do with my shares and potentially future buys.

for the record, Im not a trader, I accumulate shares and will hopefully live off dividends in 30 years in retirement, so my timeframe is forever, just questioning exxon after the last few years.....and over the next three decades Exxon projects that global energy demand will increase by 35% as the global population grows to 9 billion, with most of the demand coming from developing nations such as India and Africa.

Thanks



This post was edited on 4/14 at 4:38 pm



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TheDiesel
LSU Fan
Houston via Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
2397 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


My company does a lot of work with Exxon on major projects and it is mind blowing with how many 1B+ projects they have going on. That and they are minority owners in tons of other facilities.

I know it doesn't answer your question. Just my 2 cents.






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LSURussian
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Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76499 posts
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re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


XOM is my largest holding in my portfolio. I won't be selling anytime soon.





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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


russian, you're my most respected poster on this board as far as stocks are concerned. I don't want to sell mine I suppose, Im just wondering with how low the yield is today vs its historical high's dont you feel other O/G stocks are better plays? I add monthly so I guess Im getting tired of it doing nothing with such a low yield.....

Like Shell is trading at 7x earnings and paying out 5.2% WOW

even conoco just unearthed that massive discovery in the gulf of mexico and has a 4.4% yield?

What are your thoughts on those vs exxon in the long run? Exxon seems to have underperformed under rex tillerson but i do love their NG future.

What do you think about sinopec and china's shale future?

SNP yield 4% today and read this piece on how much reserve china has compared to us russian, their future seems limitless once they basically learn fracking

LINK

Would you add to exxon at todays prices? Or one of the others I mentioned?



This post was edited on 4/14 at 6:38 pm


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76499 posts
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re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


quote:

Would you add to exxon at todays prices?

No, but not because I don't think it's a good buy. As I wrote previously, XOM is my largest holding (about 25% of my stock portfolio) and if I added to it my concentration risk only goes up.

I don't really follow the other companies you listed so any opinion I'd give on them would not be very informed.

I agree with you that XOM's dividend yield is too low but you have to remember that Exxon has raised its dividend EVERY YEAR for the last 30 years. That's a pretty impressive record. And they usually make their dividend increase announcement either at the end of April or the first week of May, so if they follow their pattern we should hear about a div increase soon.

Plus, XOM has not had a stock split since 2001 so it would not shock me if they announced a stock split this year or next.

Thanks for the kind words.






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rickgrimes
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
2999 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


I came across this video randomly while surfing youtube:

LINK

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.






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Big Saint
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2009
635 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


Well based on your original post, you have a bunch of oil and gas stocks. Do you have other sectors as well to diversify somewhat? I assume you do but wanted to ask.

Personally I prefer CVX over XOM but have a much younger portfolio as I've only been invested in CVX and the market in general the last year and a half.






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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


I do but Im not a 50 stock kinda guy, pretty simple

PM
MO
XOM
KO
COP
RDS.B
SLW(growth)
AMZN(growth)
AQP(Growth)
v(growth)

Im about 85% high dividend growth stocks in tobacco,oil, and coke and then I always hold 3-4 growth stocks, I call them my gambles....amazon,AQP(huge platinum producer i just bought bc theyre hammered which was $600/stock not long ago, $45 today),SLW(silver producer, and visa






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tiger91
LSU Fan
South of Lafayette
Member since Nov 2005
12843 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


I've got XOM ... think it's actually listed as a HOLD right now just due to the $$ to buy.

I'm not selling anytime soon.






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Big Saint
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2009
635 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


Yeah I'm not a 50 stock guy either. Your portfolio looks fine to me. I was just asking because you listed four or five oil and gas names that you owned. That would be a huge chunk of my portfolio.

I just kept it simple with CVX and several other holdings in different sectors.






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Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
5850 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


I have several clients that inherited large quantities go XOM. I told them we are putting those shares in a non managed account because we will never sell them. That is one you just hold and enjoy in my opinion.





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matthew25
Ole Miss Fan
Member since Jun 2012
3289 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


Some Dow perspective in a bull market (13.4% gain ytd):

6 low-performers the past 100 days: Alcoa (minus 5.3); Caterpillar (minus 5.1); Exxon (2.8); Bk of America (4.8); Intel (5.1) Microsoft (7.8)

Chevron is up 10.9% ytd; 9 P/E.

I've been waiting for BP to bust out: (minus .2 YTD); 4.9% dividend; 6.2 P/E






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Macintosh504
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2011
21114 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


yeah exxon will always go up.





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matthew25
Ole Miss Fan
Member since Jun 2012
3289 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


Exxon joins AA and CAT as the 3 Dow stocks in negative territory.





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kingbob
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St. Amant, LA
Member since Nov 2010
14005 posts
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re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


hold, for the love of money, hold. It will pay off handsomely





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Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
5850 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


quote:

Exxon joins AA and CAT as the 3 Dow stocks in negative territory.


4 months does not make a stock.






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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


Russian, my largest position is philip morris and its over 25% of my portfolio how exxon is for you. I respect your analysis always, so I wanted to ask you......I just checked exxon over the last 5 years with dividends reinvested returned just 10.89% vs Phillip morris which returned 112%,even coca cola returned 54%, i use this backtest calculator its pretty cool check it out

LINK

Anyways, seeing how it underperformed so badly the last few years, will you tell me why your so bullish on it? Im really itching to pull the trigger on it at $86.50 today, especially after someone i respect like you mentions its 25% of his portfolio. Just wondering about the horrendous 10% ROI over the last 5 years, what do you see in the future that makes you so gung ho? thanks again

FYI, Shell is a pretty gigantic oil and natural gas company and it pays a 5.2% yield, which has grown every year as well albeit not at 20% like exxon did last year....RDS.B is another big holding of mine too it hasn't done much either, but the yield is gigantic....also COP conoco just unearthed a massive find in the gulf of mexico and it's yield is 4.6%.



This post was edited on 4/16 at 1:12 pm


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OnTheBrink
Alabama Fan
TN
Member since Mar 2012
3445 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


quote:

especially after someone i respect like you mentions its 25% of his portfolio


Not speaking for Russian, but I am pretty sure he accumulated most of them a long, long time ago.






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
76499 posts
 Online 

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


quote:

will you tell me why your so bullish on it?
I've covered earlier why I'm going to continue to hold it. I really don't have any more to add other than if I sold my XOM I'd have to pay over $100,000 in LTCG income taxes. I just can't bring myself to write that large of an estimated taxes check to the IRS.

Please don't do what I do if you believe you're better off not owning XOM.






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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Exxon Stock....buy,hold, or sell


ah gotcha so its more a tax thing bc you've made so much? well then





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