Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development | TigerDroppings.com

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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Here is the start of an article about Rivers that a H247 reader penned. It's a look at groups of one-and-done guards and how they have improved. It shows that the group that Rivers fits in (the ones that play poorly their first year) improve a good deal after year one, and some go on to be solid players.

It also shows that stellar first year performance somehow ends up not-so-steller a few years down the road.

There were only 14 in the 20 years studied drafter in the top 15, so it's a small sample, but it's a good read.

It's got tables, so I can't post it here.

quote:

It’s always hard to know exactly how a player will develop once they reach the NBA. The development of their two first round draft picks from last year is a key factor in how the New Orleans Pelicans will fare in the coming 5 years at a minimum. Anthony Davis and Austin Rivers were both one-and-done players, however they have had dramatically different starts to their pro career. Davis seems to be everything that he was expected to be, while Rivers has only shown some flashes during his constant struggles.

Given some of the things being said about Rivers (Remember the “worst season in NBA history” piece?), fans were starting to get a bit restless with his development. But what kind of improvement should fans expect from Rivers in the short term? How much can we expect him to improve from this season to next? One way to answer these questions is to look at other guards who share some important qualities with Rivers and examine how they improved from their first NBA season to their second.


LINK /







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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5360 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Thanks for the link. Interesting read. I dont know how good he will ever be, but Rivers has been improving and he works his arse off.

I believe he's going to stick in the league for quite a while.






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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
185173 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

Tyreke Evans, Steve Francis, and Larry Hughes are in the top group, Group 3.



might want to tell him Steve Francis wasnt a 1 and done player






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Steve Francis attended a community college and a junior college before doing 1 year at Maryland.

I think this 1 year against NCAA competition is what was meant, as opposed to NJCAA, but given that Francis was not in the group that Rivers compares to does not have Francis in it, the conclusion of the piece stands. When the sample set is so small, you take what you can get, I suppose.

I'll update the post and inform the author.

Thanks for the catch.

ETA: They were both community colleges.



This post was edited on 2/15 at 11:59 pm


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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
185173 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

Steve Francis attended a community college and a junior college before doing 1 year at Maryland.



yeah so basically left after his JR year

if that is the criteria, im sure there are many more guys who played a year of college after playing in JR college.

Francis was 23 by the all star break of his rookie season in the NBA. just for reference






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

yeah so basically left after his JR year

if that is the criteria, im sure there are many more guys who played a year of college after playing in JR college.

Francis was 23 by the all star break of his rookie season in the NBA. just for reference


The point has been noted clearly in the article.

As noted both here and there, it really does not affect the conclusion since Francis played way better than the group of players that Rivers compared with (with good reason).

Thanks again.






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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
185173 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


he already changed it

i know it had no bearing. but having all your facts in line is always good






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Agreed, 100%.

Yeah, dude, I just went in and added it. If you have any other stuff, or a better rewrite, then I'm all for it.

I'll take the hit on that. I played editor, but I basically didn't recheck the groups or initial calculations.

For reference, Hornets247 now takes user submitted articles. There are quality standards, but no censorship that is not imposed by ESPN or sense. So no flap for disagreeing with McNamara, but no comparing Demps to Hitler for 500 words.

Just email a draft or inquiry to "articles" if interested.






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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
185173 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


im not trying to rewrite it.


though there is another group of guards who may have played 2 years of college yet are the same age(or within a few months) in their rookie years as Rivers.

guys like billups, joe johnson, baron davis, mike bibby, ricky davis, will avery, kyle lowry, joe forte, tj ford, cp3,

or 2nd round picks like monta ellis (who was an old HS SR) Gil Arenas, mo williams, von wafer

probably more. but i realize its already written.







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THRILLHO
New Orleans Saints Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2006
34089 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

. If you have any other stuff, or a better rewrite, then I'm all for it.




Lester Earl for 247 writer.



This post was edited on 2/16 at 12:47 am


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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

im not trying to rewrite it.


I meant of the little added bit, not the whole thing.

Going by age was a much harder search, I think, but may have been more informative. I think that's also a much muddier pool to try to pick out all the various signals though. This was a nice simple little comparison, but just one of a few possibly informative ones.

In the end, the main point is that when you start out this bad, there's no track record of being a perennial All-Star, but it's about as likely to be booted after a just a few years as to end up being a starter on the right team.

I'd put Rivers in the upper half of that range given his work ethic, assuming he eats enough cornbread between now and then.

I've been pretty patient with the guy, trying to encourage that in others. I feel better about that stance after this piece.






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

Lester Earl for 247 writer.



I meant that more for everyone that just him, and I didn't mean it like "well write your own if you want it." This was a submitted piece, so I was just passing on the info to possibly curious readers here if they wanted to do the same.






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5360 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Rohan did this piece before the draft using a chart to compare future NBA guards who, like Rivers, were asked to play big roles during their freshman years in college. Written as why he doesn't like the Rivers pick, the point is moot, but the data is interesting.

In a chart, so no link

LINK






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


I remember this. I think his claim about "current NBA value" is interesting given performances this year by some of the folks on the list.

The data certainly suggests what we've seen (not so hot right now), but it sadly compares him primarily to people who were gone at that point.

Rivers or Leonard is the question that ended up being the most interesting.

Love Rohan's work, regardless.






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5360 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

Rivers or Leonard is the question that ended up being the most interesting


as much as I didnt want rivers, I think this is a draw at worst for the hornets.






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3574 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

as much as I didnt want rivers, I think this is a draw at worst for the hornets.



With Davis on the roster, I think the Hornets made the right choice out of the two. Moreso given the targeted upgrades in the frontcourt that came to fruition.

Without all that, I would have gone Leonard, but that's just me. I would have taken the rarer prospect. I drew a defense of Leonard before the draft, and I actually bought some of the scribblings.

Still, either choice was going to look bad this year.






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5360 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


quote:

With Davis on the roster, I think the Hornets made the right choice out of the two. Moreso given the targeted upgrades in the frontcourt that came to fruition.

Without all that, I would have gone Leonard, but that's just me. I would have taken the rarer prospect. I drew a defense of Leonard before the draft, and I actually bought some of the scribblings.


Right there with you. Given the roster at the time, I was hoping they would take Leonard.

If only Dumars had been dumb and passed on Drummond :sigh:

That said, I do really like what we've seen from Rivers recently. Maybe it's because the bar has been set so low for him, but I'm excited by the growth he's shown.






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LosLobos111
New Orleans Saints Fan
Time to go Roger...
Member since Feb 2011
14133 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


Rivers improvement on D and passing are a very welcome development.

He needs to put some muscle on and work on his shooting then he'll be golden.






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touchdownjeebus
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2010
3132 posts

re: Projecting Austin Rivers’ Development


If he could finish with more consistency and get his FT% to 85%, he would be a middle of the pack guy. I will gladly take that in year two.





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