Basketball Bet Thread 12-21-12

V43sports

@V43sports: 12/21 double-plays: TOR 1Q -1, ATL 1Q -.5, PHI 2Q +.5, MIL 1H +3, CHI 3Q +1.5, DET 1Q -2, WAS 4Q +1.5, MEM 2Q -3. Blog will be updated later

I'm loving what I see in college tonight.
Think I already have 3 winners pegged...

But I have learned to hold off releasing any picks until after the market settles around 5pm. No sense in making a pick when you can steadily gather information throughout the day by line movements and betting trends.

Gonna be a good friday night fellas...

Gonna be a large night

I see the hornets line has dropped a bit y so?

Everyone has a different bankroll, so unit is a good way to help everyone be able to tell how much up or down someone would be if they followed them.

1 Unit would be what you generally bet on a game.
1 Unit for me may be $100, where it may be $1000 or only $20 for someone else.

2 Units mean you double your normal bet, I don't usually ever bet anymore than 2 Units, unless I feel its an absolute lock for various reasons.

Since juice is usually -110, if I lose a game I count that as minus 1.1 units, so if I went 1-1 on the night I would be +0.9 Units.

Like I said last night, I liked the Vanderbilt line but I didn't know it was at a neutral site. Not many games are jumping out to me but I trust you so I'll go with what you choose

quote:

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so if I went 1-1 on the night I would be +0.9 Units.

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You mean -.1 unit

here's what caught my eye in the association

Raptors -3.5 - The team is dramatically better w/ Alan Anderson inserted in the starting lineup. Bargnani/Lowry injuries appear to be addition by subtraction, especially considering its giving Calderon more minutes. Team is actually good at home and Glen Davis is out. McRoberts/Nicholson might spell Davis effectively, but on a team that's already lousy offensively losing scoring hurts.

Bulls +6 - Somethings gotta give here.. the #1 team i the league at defending the 3 (not only in %, but in limiting attempts) v a team whose offensive production is 35% from beyond the arc. I just like this matchup for the Bulls. They held the Knicks to their worst offensive performance of the year last time, somethings gotta give. Knicks are a gimmicky offense... very few points in paint, from FT line, and in transition... its mostly reliant on the 3 ball and I think the Bulls can do a good job of disrupting the ball movement and chasing off the line.

Spurs -13.5 - Because the Hornets are that bad. Davis makes a negligible difference, as the team is horrid when he's on the court defensively. Spurs are a great 3-PT shooting team and Hornets are worst in league defending it. I saw Pekovic/Howard dominate the Hornets and expect Duncan can as well. Leonard is back. Spurs have the depth/bench to blow teams out (132-102 v Bobcats, 118-92 v Wizards, etc)...really think this could be a 20+ point beatdown.

Wizards +6- Team is better w/o Beal and with nene/Cartier Martin. solid defensive club. The Pistons essentially have no home court advantage. I think the Pistons bigs can maybe do some damage but the Wizards/Pistons gap isn't big enough to be 6 points IMO.