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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 14 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 11/26/12 at 4:38 pm to bamafan425
Posted on 11/26/12 at 4:38 pm to bamafan425
5-2 record last week and my best weekend all year (as far as how much I actually won!) 
My numbers were absolutely on point, being this far into the season most of the in-conference opponents have played similar schedules so its easier to compare them. With that being said a lot of "public" dogs really stuck out to me last week, not going to be as much of those to chose from this time around with the smaller slate.
Teams that jump out to me as of Monday:
TCU +6.5 - Best defense the Sooners have faced since the Notre Dame game, TCU will be fired up for this one.
Wisconsin +2.5 - My numbers slightly favor the Badgers and add to the fact that Nebraska has been an awful road team this is a great bet. Wisconsin also coming off an uninspired performance against Penn St.
South Florida +6 - Classic matchup between a team that has been awful on the road against a team who has played way above their heads at home.
Alabama -7.5- Actually pretty surprised this number is not higher. As a fan I will be rooting like hell for Georgia, but I just don't see them keeping up. My numbers predicted a 60 point drumming of Auburn, which it very easily could have been had Bama not let up after halftime, it likes Bama by 3 TD's in this one.
Cincinnati -5 - UConn's value is being inflated a little here after a win over a overrated Louisville squad. They won't be able to score enough to stay within a touchdown of the Bearcats.
My numbers were absolutely on point, being this far into the season most of the in-conference opponents have played similar schedules so its easier to compare them. With that being said a lot of "public" dogs really stuck out to me last week, not going to be as much of those to chose from this time around with the smaller slate.
Teams that jump out to me as of Monday:
TCU +6.5 - Best defense the Sooners have faced since the Notre Dame game, TCU will be fired up for this one.
Wisconsin +2.5 - My numbers slightly favor the Badgers and add to the fact that Nebraska has been an awful road team this is a great bet. Wisconsin also coming off an uninspired performance against Penn St.
South Florida +6 - Classic matchup between a team that has been awful on the road against a team who has played way above their heads at home.
Alabama -7.5- Actually pretty surprised this number is not higher. As a fan I will be rooting like hell for Georgia, but I just don't see them keeping up. My numbers predicted a 60 point drumming of Auburn, which it very easily could have been had Bama not let up after halftime, it likes Bama by 3 TD's in this one.
Cincinnati -5 - UConn's value is being inflated a little here after a win over a overrated Louisville squad. They won't be able to score enough to stay within a touchdown of the Bearcats.
1
Posted on 11/26/12 at 4:45 pm to dgtiger3
Great write up
Posted on 11/26/12 at 4:52 pm to TigerTatorTots
LOVE the Bearcats -5 against UConn.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 5:29 pm to bamafan425
Hopefully I can maintain the success from last weekend. I will make another parlay 
I've only taken a glance so far, and the only line that jumped out was Cincy.
I've only taken a glance so far, and the only line that jumped out was Cincy.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:54 pm to Carson123987
I feel obligated to take Kent St getting 6 at home
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:55 pm to Chef Leppard
I think HeHaithMe likes Northern Illinois.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:57 pm to bamafan425
Noted 
Posted on 11/26/12 at 11:11 pm to Chef Leppard
quote:
I feel obligated to take Kent St getting 6 at home
They're playing @ Ford Field in Detroit brah.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 11:12 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
I read it as a home game. Confusing the way my site has it listed
wasn't thinking. Im tired
wasn't thinking. Im tired
Posted on 11/27/12 at 1:00 am to bamafan425
quote:
I think HeHaithMe likes Northern Illinois.
Yeah he does, and I do as well. I have NIU pegged about 12 points better and it seems that Kent St, is getting a little more love from the media, Kent St has played slightly better on the road but not enough to make more than a point or two difference. HeHaithMe says NIU has better athletes on both sides of the field and Kent St won't have an answer for Jordan Lynch. I think it's pretty good value under a touchdown right now.
Posted on 11/27/12 at 3:22 am to dgtiger3
Early on I like Texas, TCU, Wisconsin, Cincy, South Florida.
Eyeing that Bama -10.5 if they meet ND. That game would get so ugly. I'd give ND a 3% chance of keeping it within a TD.
Eyeing that Bama -10.5 if they meet ND. That game would get so ugly. I'd give ND a 3% chance of keeping it within a TD.
Posted on 11/27/12 at 6:20 am to bamafan425
quote:
I think HeHaithMe likes Northern Illinois.
So does bobbyray21. And bobbyray21 has been absolutely CRUSHING the MAC all year.
And can I just tell y'all. The last 8 or so weeks of CFB have been the best gambling run I've ever had.
I got a text from my bookie on September 25 that said "Got you down -3905, please confirm". He then asked me if I wouldn't mind paying him down two dimes. I said sure. I paid him down two dimes On sept. 28. So that puts me down a little less than 2K with him. This is going into week 5.
I then proceeded to lose another dime over the next two weeks. Going into week 7 I got a text from him that read "Got you at -3023".
And then I started kicking arse. I could do no wrong. From weeks 7-11, I made roughly a dime each week. I then start thinking I should be more cautious because now I'm up...except that then I make 2 dimes in week 12. When everybody else apparently got crushed, I had the Saturday of my life. Then I decided to be extra cautious, but it didn't matter because I kept winning everything I picked, and I made another dime and a half last week.
I got a text from my guy yesterday. It said "Got you up 6530, please confirm." And Boom goes the dynamite!
Once you figure out the landscape, it's easy. The plays just jump off the page. I wish this CFB season could go on forever. I'll at least make another dime over this last week and the bowls, but man I just wanna keep crushing him.
I can't wait till I cash out. I'm gonna drop a snarky remark about how me paying him down two dimes back in September was a pretty silly idea in hindsight.
Posted on 11/27/12 at 6:23 am to dgtiger3
quote:
Yeah he does, and I do as well. I have NIU pegged about 12 points better and it seems that Kent St, is getting a little more love from the media, Kent St has played slightly better on the road but not enough to make more than a point or two difference. HeHaithMe says NIU has better athletes on both sides of the field and Kent St won't have an answer for Jordan Lynch. I think it's pretty good value under a touchdown right now.
I set the line at NIU-9.5
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:43 am to dgtiger3
I want to take NIU - they have the X factor in Lynch are the more explosive offense.
However, Kent St. has a good defense, having a dream season (although they were blown out by Kentucky), and has been a covering machine this year... maybe I'll lay 1 unit on NIU, nothing more.
However, Kent St. has a good defense, having a dream season (although they were blown out by Kentucky), and has been a covering machine this year... maybe I'll lay 1 unit on NIU, nothing more.
This post was edited on 11/27/12 at 8:45 am
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:49 am to Billy Mays
quote:
has been a covering machine this year...
NIU says hello
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:51 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
NIU says hello
I won 3 units on Toledo against NIU a few weeks ago. It was kind of a garbage-time cover but IDGAF
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:53 am to Billy Mays
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:57 am to HoLeInOnEr05
I'm hoping Bama makes it to -6.5
Posted on 11/27/12 at 8:58 am to Louie T
You can make it happen. Spend the extra cash.
Cost ya an extra $.30
Cost ya an extra $.30
This post was edited on 11/27/12 at 8:59 am
Posted on 11/27/12 at 9:15 am to HoLeInOnEr05
So far:
1* UGA +8 vs. Bama
1* NIU -6 vs. Kent St.
1* OSU -4.5 at Baylor
1* UGA +8 vs. Bama
1* NIU -6 vs. Kent St.
1* OSU -4.5 at Baylor
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