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Message
Some fans forget just how "lucky" Nick Saban has been.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:25 am
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:25 am
The one thing that has always down right confused me concerning LSU football, is the idea that some fans hold that LSU has only been successful under Les Miles because he is "lucky". If Les wins because of luck (which is so overblown it's not even funny), then logic would have it that he only loses because of (bad) luck. Never see that argument from the Negatigers out there.
But it got me thinking, does anyone remember how "lucky" Nick Saban, the coach so many Les-haters presume would have led LSU to 4 or 5 National Titles had he never left, has been in his title runs. Let's go back:
2003: LSU lost a home game to Florida and freshman QB Chris Leak. After that week, there were a number of teams undefeated or with 1 loss still ahead of LSU. Miami lost two in a row to get to two losses, FSU loses another one late to get to two losses, Defending champ Ohio State loses its only game to Michigan under Jim Tressel the last week of the regular season, who already had two losses so both are out, opening the door for USC or LSU. Then after all of that, because strength of schedule was a factor back then, meaningless games between Notre Dame and Syracuse, Boise State and Hawaii would both need to go LSU's way to jump USC in the BCS computers. They both did. Not that that LSU team wasn't 100% deserving of being there, but it easily could not have happened.
2009: This on paper is Saban's best team, they went undefeated after all, avenging a loss to UF in the SEC title game. But let's not forget the "gritty win" they got 12-10 over a crap Lane Kiffin Tennessee team at home (the same score LSU was getting shite for against Auburn this year) on a freaking blocked field goal, the Patrick Peterson INT that wasn't in Bryant-Denny that could have flipped that game, the last minute comeback against LSU, and let's not forget the actual National Title Game. Colt McCoy goes out the opening drive of the game, and Bama is up 24-6 at half. The incredible Bama team then managed to be sitting with a 24-21 lead with 3 minutes left in the game, with UT having possession and all the momentum for the comeback with the 2ND STRING QB. Only the turnover and late score made that game look like a dominant win... and we can only guess how it would have been different if McCoy not had been out and Texas not been losing so bad by halftime.
2011: We all know too well this story. LSU goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama. End of story. But wait, not only did OSU and Stanford not finish undefeated, but Oregon also lost a 2nd game to USC. It seems had they finished with only the one loss and PAC champs, it would have been hard to give Bama a rematch being in the same conference, over a rematch with Oregon, or just playing OSU for the first time. Not only did all of those things have to happen in the last three weeks, but the voters had to ignore the same logic that put Florida in the 2006 game instead of Michigan, and LSU in the 2007 game and not Georgia (a non division winner)... for an SEC west REMATCH at that. Not to mention the times that when Nebraska played for it all without winning the division, and FSU played for it all though they lost to Miami who finished 3rd in the BCS... the system was worked on and tweaked because the sentiment was that SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN. Not saying Bama wasn't better than those other teams last year, they were. But the "most deserving" argument of the past all of a sudden went out the window for "best teams" last year. Sometimes better teams lose, and because we don't have a playoff, that just sucks for you. (LSU 2006 anyone?)
Then we come to this year. There are still some games left, Bama could lose to Georgia eliminating them from the BCS. But the fact that 2 of the 3 teams that were ahead of one loss Bama would lose the VERY NEXT WEEK after the Bama loss to A&M is incredibly fortunate. Auburn didn't get that fortunate in 2004, Georgia didn't get that fortunate in 2002. Both of those teams were really good, good enough to win it all. Things just didn't fall their way.
Point being, there always seem to be a lot of people that credit Alabama's success to Saban's coaching ability, but LSU wins in spite of Miles coaching ability, he's just gotten lucky. I just wanted to remind some of those LSU fans out there that perception is everything. Just about every National Title in this non-playoff world requires some good fortune. What Saban has done at LSU and Alabama is truly impressive, there is no arguing that. It just must be noted that 2 of his 3 titles could not have happened, 1 of which could be argued should not have happened. 4 National Titles at the end of this year would put him in college football lore, but a couple breaks falling the other way, and he could just be like any other of the top coaches in the game right now.
As always
But it got me thinking, does anyone remember how "lucky" Nick Saban, the coach so many Les-haters presume would have led LSU to 4 or 5 National Titles had he never left, has been in his title runs. Let's go back:
2003: LSU lost a home game to Florida and freshman QB Chris Leak. After that week, there were a number of teams undefeated or with 1 loss still ahead of LSU. Miami lost two in a row to get to two losses, FSU loses another one late to get to two losses, Defending champ Ohio State loses its only game to Michigan under Jim Tressel the last week of the regular season, who already had two losses so both are out, opening the door for USC or LSU. Then after all of that, because strength of schedule was a factor back then, meaningless games between Notre Dame and Syracuse, Boise State and Hawaii would both need to go LSU's way to jump USC in the BCS computers. They both did. Not that that LSU team wasn't 100% deserving of being there, but it easily could not have happened.
2009: This on paper is Saban's best team, they went undefeated after all, avenging a loss to UF in the SEC title game. But let's not forget the "gritty win" they got 12-10 over a crap Lane Kiffin Tennessee team at home (the same score LSU was getting shite for against Auburn this year) on a freaking blocked field goal, the Patrick Peterson INT that wasn't in Bryant-Denny that could have flipped that game, the last minute comeback against LSU, and let's not forget the actual National Title Game. Colt McCoy goes out the opening drive of the game, and Bama is up 24-6 at half. The incredible Bama team then managed to be sitting with a 24-21 lead with 3 minutes left in the game, with UT having possession and all the momentum for the comeback with the 2ND STRING QB. Only the turnover and late score made that game look like a dominant win... and we can only guess how it would have been different if McCoy not had been out and Texas not been losing so bad by halftime.
2011: We all know too well this story. LSU goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama. End of story. But wait, not only did OSU and Stanford not finish undefeated, but Oregon also lost a 2nd game to USC. It seems had they finished with only the one loss and PAC champs, it would have been hard to give Bama a rematch being in the same conference, over a rematch with Oregon, or just playing OSU for the first time. Not only did all of those things have to happen in the last three weeks, but the voters had to ignore the same logic that put Florida in the 2006 game instead of Michigan, and LSU in the 2007 game and not Georgia (a non division winner)... for an SEC west REMATCH at that. Not to mention the times that when Nebraska played for it all without winning the division, and FSU played for it all though they lost to Miami who finished 3rd in the BCS... the system was worked on and tweaked because the sentiment was that SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN. Not saying Bama wasn't better than those other teams last year, they were. But the "most deserving" argument of the past all of a sudden went out the window for "best teams" last year. Sometimes better teams lose, and because we don't have a playoff, that just sucks for you. (LSU 2006 anyone?)
Then we come to this year. There are still some games left, Bama could lose to Georgia eliminating them from the BCS. But the fact that 2 of the 3 teams that were ahead of one loss Bama would lose the VERY NEXT WEEK after the Bama loss to A&M is incredibly fortunate. Auburn didn't get that fortunate in 2004, Georgia didn't get that fortunate in 2002. Both of those teams were really good, good enough to win it all. Things just didn't fall their way.
Point being, there always seem to be a lot of people that credit Alabama's success to Saban's coaching ability, but LSU wins in spite of Miles coaching ability, he's just gotten lucky. I just wanted to remind some of those LSU fans out there that perception is everything. Just about every National Title in this non-playoff world requires some good fortune. What Saban has done at LSU and Alabama is truly impressive, there is no arguing that. It just must be noted that 2 of his 3 titles could not have happened, 1 of which could be argued should not have happened. 4 National Titles at the end of this year would put him in college football lore, but a couple breaks falling the other way, and he could just be like any other of the top coaches in the game right now.
As always
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:32 am to EveryonesACoach
I agree with all of that shite.
frick the Miles haters.
frick the Miles haters.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:33 am to EveryonesACoach
a tad long but content-wise, not a bad first post.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:34 am to EveryonesACoach
Thanks. I didn't know any of that.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:34 am to panda
Thanks. I could have left out the painful details of 2011. My bad.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:37 am to LSURoss
You should read it. Great post, OP. Agree with all of it
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:39 am to Riverwood
quote:
It's probably an alter.
quote:
EveryonesACoach
Of course it is an alter.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:41 am to LSURoss
Solid post. I guess you didn't finish 4th grade if that was too long.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:45 am to Books
quote:
2 loss NC
Note where I said the part about almost every National Title needing some good fortune. That doesn't exclude Les' Title, if I understand the English language correctly.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:46 am to Beau Tie
Well- Nick might be hoisting this third NC trophy in 4 years. Think good coaching might have something to do with it?
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:47 am to EveryonesACoach
Didn't read your post but the premise is asinine considering
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:49 am to EveryonesACoach
2001 Got into SEC championship game with 3 loses. Which might not happen again.
We win that game because Tenn was their own worst enemy by knocking Rohan Davey out of the game.
We win that game because Tenn was their own worst enemy by knocking Rohan Davey out of the game.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:50 am to Books
quote:
Didn't read your post but the premise is asinine considering
No it isn't.
Saban national title teams have caught many breaks. From other teams getting upset, to their NC opponent losing their starting QB.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:52 am to EveryonesACoach
I am arguing this with someone right now. Saban has made the most of his 3 chances when he gets a team there is the only thing. But look at these records...8-4, 10-3, 8-5, 13-1, 9-3, 7-6, 12-2, 14-0, 10-3, 13-1. Only 3 out of 10 seasons have less than 2 losses. Followed up his first 2 NC's with 9-3 and 10-3. Winning dominate just does not happen all the time, it takes so much luck with injuries and schedule and a few lucky bounces have to go your way too.
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:56 am to mikeytig
quote:
Well- Nick might be hoisting this third NC trophy in 4 years. Think good coaching might have something to do with it?
Les Miles might be finishing his 6th 10+ win season in 8 years. Think good coaching might have something to do with it?
Seriously though, of course I think good coaching is the overwhelming reason Bama is on this run. But you need some luck too, if you're not taking care of business every week and going undefeated. Mark Richt was on a hell of a run a few years back. A late loss by Miami or Ohio State puts them in the game. The same logic that got Bama in last year, puts them in the game in 2007. Sometimes you need the right break, that's my only point. Saban as good as he is is not immune to that premise.
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