re: OFFICIAL Week 12 CFB bet thread™

quote:

---

really dont understand where that logic comes from...

---

They also only beat Pitt, Purdue, and BYU by only 3.

quote:

---

MSU by 17 Oklahoma by 17

---

I believe they were dogs in both of these games. Thats different than covering a large spread as a favorite.

Your mother has a tasty pussy

Nah man. when you said that shite to that smartass the other day I spit beer

Idk why. but ive laughed like 10 times about that since then

Can someone explain their reasoning behind loving UTEP?

They are god awful. Last week everyone wanted to bet on Akron against the god awful Umass, but failed to take into consideration Akron was terrible as well. I know USM is terrible, but so is UTEP.

UTEP played Oklahoma tough

Is Kolton Browning going to play this week?

quote:

---

(1)
UCF @ Tulsa
This is pretty much the conference final matchup in two weeks from now. Both teams are healthy and undefeated in conference and have had two OOC losses (UCF to tOSU and Mizzou @ home, TU to Arky two weeks ago and Iowa St.). In conference TU struggled against UAB, Marshall, and Rice. UCF struggled against USM and UTEP (go figure). TU is poor in the air game and decent on the ground game on both offense and defense (compared to the rest of the NCAA). UCF is slightly the opposite, better in the air than on the ground on both sides.


(2)
Houston @ Marshall
Marshall got beat by UAB, UAB led the game the entire time despite giving up 4 turnovers. When you allow 5 yds per carry though, it makes sense. Houston, meanwhile hit a emotional low last week when their captain on defense suffered a near fatal heart injury during practice. They got blown out by Tulsa last week after it, I'm not certain how they'll play. Both teams have pass heavy offenses and poor defenses with the exception of Marshall's pass D.

(3)
SMU @ Rice
SMU's losses have been against OOC aTm, TCU, and Baylor, and in conference UCF and... Tulane. Rice's schedule has looked good in recent weeks because of a weaker schedule and playing Tulsa when TU's starting QB was injured. Rice's Defense is putrid compared to SMU despite having a much easier schedule. SMU has a poor run game, but appears average.

(4)
ECU @ Tulane
This may be the one clear cut game all week. ECU is the cream of the conference, but gets blown out outside the conference (Navy, for one). Tulane sucks, not sure if you knew that or not. ECU should blow them out. If not, I'll be one of the first to call shenanigans.

(5)
UAB @ Memphis
This is the other Toilet Bowl game this week, and both teams are probably looking at this game as a Season High. Memphis easily has one of the worst offenses in NCAA. In comparison, UAB has better looking losses and a pass game, both defenses are dreadful.

(6)
UTEP @ So. Miss
Neither of these teams should be picked to win, be it SU or ATS. On paper, USM has a average run game, but no pass game. UTEP has an average offense all around, but does not appear to be able to finish a drive. Both teams have bad run defenses and average pass defenses. USM gives up more points on average, and has put a number of Offensive players are injured or on suspension (last week anyway).

---

(1)
I lean towards UCF.

(2)
Wouldn't touch with your money.

(3)
Wouldn't touch with your money.

(4)
"ECU is the cream of the conference." Do what?

(5)
Cripple fight.

(6)
I lean UTEP on account of USM's horribleness.

My early leans:

Northern Illinois-10 vs. Toledo: I actually think this line is about right, but I do think Northern Illinois will win the game. Moneyline, possibly?

Kent State+3 @ Bowling Green: I watched part of the Bowling Green game last week, and they're not atrocious. But Kent State has been juggernauting all over the conference for weeks now. I had this game handicapped at Kent State-4.5. And when I see a 7.5 point differential, I take it.

Indiana+18.5 @ Penn State: Indiana got blown out last week, but they have been a live dog in nearly every other conference game they've played. I think they keep this tight.

UCF+3 @ Tulsa: This is a soft lean, but I trust UCF's D more than I do Tulsa's.

Hipster Miami +3.5 @ Central Michigan: Hipster Miami is mediocre. Central Michigan is bad.

Washington-20.5 @ Colorado: any time Colorado is getting less than three touchdowns, it's a good idea to give it some strong consideration.

Buffalo-11 @ UMass: Okay, so UMass wins one game over freakin' Akron and Vegas knee-jerk-reacts this week's line to Buffalo-11. Do what? If this game were played last week, what would the spread have been ? Buffalo-18? The fact of the matter is that Buffalo isn't actually half terrible this year. They're coming off wins against Hipster Miami and Western Michigan. I think they roll the Minutemen by a sizable margin.

USC-4 over UCLA: Ed Orgeron hates UCLA. He'll have the defense fired up for this one. And we already knew that USC could score points. And score points they will. Just remember how bad this game was last year. Do you really think UCLA has gotten THAT much better?

Purdue-7 @ Illinois: I've gone against Illinois A LOT this year. And every time I've gone against them, they've hooked me up with their putridity. The B1G is really bad this year. Iowa is bad. Minny is bad. Purdue is bad. Indiana is bad. But Illinois is a different kind of bad. And so once again I'm backing bad in a matchup of bad vs. really bad.

Iowa State-6 @ Kansas: Kansas has started to show signs of life, but I'm still not buying them. Their MO the entire year has been to play a tight game then get blown out. They took Texas Tech to overtime last Saturday, so I'm expecting them to get blown out this week.

Air Force-22.5 vs. Hawaii: I think Hawaii has reached the point where they are just going through the motions.

Clemson-17 vs. NC State: Here is what I know: Clemson will score more than 40 points. Additionally, I am confident that NC State will score something less than 40 points. So I'm more confident in this ML than the spread. Perhaps I'll mix and match.

ULM-10 vs. North Texas: this depends on whether Kolton Browning is back. Any updates, y'all?

Mizzou-4.5 vs. Syracuse: this line is an insult to the SEC.

Oregon-20.5 vs. Stanford: I just absolutely love this Oregon team this year. I honestly believe them to be the best college football team I've seen since Florida '08. I'm sticking with them.

UTEP-4 @ Southern Miss: This is a case of bad vs really bad. If that doesn't inspire confidence in you, rest assured that Southern Miss is really bad. I can't recall the last time they were even competitive in a game of football that wasn't played in standing water. And they appear to be getting worse as they got blown out this past week by a bad SMU team.

I liked UT in this one on first glance. Just seems like a game that Bray could stand behind that monster o line all day and throw for 6 tds. UT is just too dysfunctional for me to bet on anymore though. Too hard to bet on coaches you know are sending out resumes