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CaptainJ47 
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
1667 posts
 Online
| SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 10:22 pm)
The president has been named. Prepare for multiple trillion dollar deficits. The only thing that will allow the dollar to hang on is Bernanke buying dollars. It may not happen tomorrow but the dollar will get crushed.
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TheHiddenFlask 
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16386 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 10:25 pm to CaptainJ47)
frick off.
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acgeaux129 
LSU Fan
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
13827 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 10:32 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
I'm bullish on bullets FWIW.
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90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
6149 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 10:33 pm to CaptainJ47)
quote:
SHORT THE DOLLAR
k
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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
1667 posts
Online
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 10:46 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
Go frick yourself flask. What makes you think the dollar will appreciate? Is it the trillions in debt?
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16386 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:10 pm to CaptainJ47)
You have no idea what you are talking about. You are just being an alarmist a-hole and trying to spill the poli talk to other boards. You have absolutely zero understanding of the thousands of moving parts behind global currency trading and you're just stinking up this board with it.
Just go home.
ETA:
Proof: This is a rehash of the same shitty thread you made on the poli board.
LINK
This post was edited on 11/6 at 11:12 pm
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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
1667 posts
Online
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I graduated in Economics with a focus in International Trade. I posted it on both boards because I think it is true.
Once again I would be more than happy to hear your rationale for the strength you see in the dollar.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16386 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 6:43 am to CaptainJ47)
quote:
I graduated in Economics with a focus in International Trade.
I hope not from LSU, because your thesis is one of the most repugnantly oversimplified pieces of crap imaginable.
quote:
Once again I would be more than happy to hear your rationale for the strength you see in the dollar.
Relative strength. Please address that and I will view your valid as semi legitimate.
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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
1667 posts
Online
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No not LSU. So let's look at the major currencies. First, the euro- short term due to Greece this will likely stay flat. In particular the long-term view that the dollar is the relative safe haven of the two will keep the pair in its current range.
Looking at the USD-JPY you have financial stability in Japan, assuming no other national disasters. There is not a significant amount of difference in rates to merit a risk and investment in the dollar.
We can go through more if you want. When rates are artificially low because the government is the primary buyer of notes. This easy monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future causing an escalation of national debt. Eventually, and as you can see in my original post I didn't say the dollar would crash today, but it will when debt as a percent of GDP doesn't normalize. The debt growing is assumed but the only way to prevent this is to grow your way out. With the election I see no reason to believe growth will exist in a significant way to have this moderate.
And no I would like your rationale.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16386 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 7:25 am to CaptainJ47)
Thank you. I disagree with you and I will address that later, but making a well thought out post with a good basis is something everyone should strive to do on this board.
1) Euro - Europe is more socialist and more debt burdened than the US. To validate your argument for the dollar devaluing because of debt and socialism you're going to have to explain how the US is different/worse than Europe in that aspect.
2) JPY - You think there is financial strength in Japan with 2x GDP debt burdens, but you are worried about US debt burdens devaluing the dollar?
quote:
When rates are artificially low because the government is the primary buyer of notes.
I think you forgot the end of that sentence.
quote:
This easy monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future causing an escalation of national debt.
How is this a monetary issue and not a fiscal issue?
quote:
And no I would like your rationale.
Didn't read this until after I already typed everything. I'm posting it anyway. Have fun wallowing in your own ignorance and self perceived intelligence.
FTR, I'm very conservative and am very disappointed with the election results.
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bayoudude
LSU Fan
Houma
Member since Dec 2007
15675 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 7:56 am to acgeaux129)
quote:
I'm bullish on bullets FWIW.
Probably the only sound investment right now. Guns and ammo are going to sell like hotcakes and skyrocket in value if any ban is instated. You could easily triple your money.
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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
1667 posts
Online
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 9:28 am to bayoudude)
K sorry I am out of pocket due to work but would like to add additional commentary when I am not on an iPhone. I do understand your point about relative strength, or possibly more appropriately relative weakness.
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GaryMyMan 
USA Fan
Lower Garden District
Member since May 2007
9117 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 9:33 am to CaptainJ47)
quote:
I graduated in Economics with a focus in International Trade.
I DRIVE A DODGE STRATUS
This post was edited on 11/7 at 9:34 am
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BennyAndTheInkJets 
Arkansas Fan
NYC
Member since Nov 2010
2824 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 9:40 am to CaptainJ47)
quote:
No not LSU. So let's look at the major currencies. First, the euro- short term due to Greece this will likely stay flat. In particular the long-term view that the dollar is the relative safe haven of the two will keep the pair in its current range.
Looking at the USD-JPY you have financial stability in Japan, assuming no other national disasters. There is not a significant amount of difference in rates to merit a risk and investment in the dollar.
We can go through more if you want. When rates are artificially low because the government is the primary buyer of notes. This easy monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future causing an escalation of national debt. Eventually, and as you can see in my original post I didn't say the dollar would crash today, but it will when debt as a percent of GDP doesn't normalize. The debt growing is assumed but the only way to prevent this is to grow your way out. With the election I see no reason to believe growth will exist in a significant way to have this moderate.
And no I would like your rationale.
This post was edited on 11/7 at 7:34 pm
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LSUAZ
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2012
17 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 9:44 am to CaptainJ47)
DX is a safe haven.... JPY has money printers as taxis since I can remember (not good for strong FX policy) Euro region is a disaster, AUD will lose value as it relies on exports to China (precious metals) and to top it off ALL I repeat ALL governments are in a Race to 0 = less value because of the Debt situation. You post is Random which could get people hurt. Degrees are useless in trading.... and I do have one form LSU.
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Blakely Bimbo 
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
760 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 9:53 am to LSUAZ)
Someone(s) was propping up EUR/USD this morning at 1.2750.
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Crbello4Hiceman
LSU Fan
Lurking
Member since May 2011
376 posts
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Open question to all (serious question). I don't know as much about fiscal policy/currency issues as yall do.
I understand the world isn't going to end tomorrow but at what point will the deficit affect us the way it is affecting Europe? Do we just need to make sure they have higher debt than us? I know we are where people go because we are more stable than other places but what will it take for that to change and for us to get in trouble?
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OFWHAP
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
4358 posts
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For one, if investors perceive that the US is not taking its debt problem seriously, they will stop purchasing US bonds, which will increase borrowing costs and our debt burden. In that case the Federal Reserve will need to step in and purchase more debt than it is already doing, which will lead to an increase in the monetary base/money supply, which will also lead to a further weakening of the US dollar in addition to the weakening resulting from a decreasing foreign demand for US debt.
Central banks worldwide are already diversifying away from Treasuries because they lose money by holding our debt due to the combination of our zero-interest rate policy and the depreciation of the dollar.
One advantage we have over Europe is that individual nations in the Euro zone are unable to print money/devalue their currency, while we have complete freedom to do so. However if you do so too much, you risk losing credibility in the capital markets and investors will punish you by driving up borrowing costs and making it more expensive for you to finance deficit spending.
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LSUcam
LSU Fan
Destin FL
Member since Dec 2011
381 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 2:25 pm to GaryMyMan)
quote:
I DRIVE A DODGE STRATUS
Do you park it next to the van down by the river? 
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16386 posts
| re: SHORT THE DOLLAR (Posted on 11/7/12 at 2:49 pm to OFWHAP)
quote:
One advantage we have over Europe is that individual nations in the Euro zone are unable to print money/devalue their currency, while we have complete freedom to do so.
Bingo.
It's the last resort of every crappy economy, but we can just hyper inflate our way out of a debt crunch. We'll never end up in the same spot as Greece. We may have a completely f'd economy, but we won't be anchored by immovable debt.
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