false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked | TigerDroppings.com

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ottothewise
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2008
32094 posts

false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked



quote:

The monthly jobs numbers are put together by career government analysts, using long-established statistical methods that are shielded from political influence. Until recently, the BLS was run by an appointee from the Bush administration, and it currently has no political appointees.

Here's how it works: The government surveys a random sample of roughly 60,000 households and 140,000 employers every month, according to Karen Kosanovich, senior economist at the BLS. Both the household and establishment surveys are scientifically random samples, meant to represent all U.S. residents and businesses.

For the household survey, on which the unemployment rate is based, representatives from the Census Bureau interview people by knocking on their doors or calling them on behalf of the BLS.

To break that down a bit further, the government does not actively choose whom to poll for the household survey. A computer program randomly decides on which households get included in the survey.




LINK

but it is useful and powerful for important members of the reactionary party to go on TV and pretend the jobs numbers were cooked. with the faithful, that's the same as if it were true.








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Radiojones
USA Fan
The Twilight Zone
Member since Feb 2007
6863 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Irregardless, 7.8% unemployment is a train wreck. We need to fire this president.





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TK421
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2011
8122 posts
 Online 

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

propaganda


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.






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Ghostfacedistiller
USA Fan
BR
Member since Jun 2008
15618 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


I remember from 2001-Jan 2009 dissent was patriotic and it was up to the intelligent to question authority. I guess that's no longer the case.

I'm not saying they were cooked, but it's a hell of a jump at a critical time. Either way 7.8% is still pretty shitty, and the U6 numbers increased, which is probably more telling than U3. So lot's of people got part time jobs. Problem solved apparently.



This post was edited on 10/8 at 9:19 am


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wilfont
LSU Fan
Gulfport, MS on a Jet Ski
Member since Apr 2007
14323 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


I, for one, never claimed a conspiracy was afoot. I do calim the 7.8% is not indicitive of the true unemployment rate or the fustration/suffering across this nation.

Its fundementally dishonest for the obama administration to crow about the 7.8% rate as if it indicates economic success.






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CITWTT
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Sep 2005
31765 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Propaganda, nice cutesy little word you like to hrp on ad nauseum, especially in the light of words from you,
quote:

useful and powerful for important members of the reactionary party to go on TV
, that qoute is a prime example of it OTD. Now how did 800K plus households get added to the mix by the BLS?






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ottothewise
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2008
32094 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

quote:
propaganda


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.





quote:

The rallying cry of the conspiracy theorists was sounded by former General Electric CEO Jack Welch. After the BLS announced that the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 percent, the lowest level since January 2009, Welch tweeted: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything (WINK WINK)..can't debate so change numbers." Other prominent conservatives parroted the conspiracy theory.





quote:

prop·a·gan·da
noun
Information, esp. of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.
The dissemination of such information as a political strategy.




This post was edited on 10/8 at 9:24 am


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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120729 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Is it possible that the number is a statistical anomaly?





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Catman88
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
40109 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

propaganda


Then you link huffington..

Are the numbers correct is all that really matters. The fact that they are complete and utter Bull shite seems to matter more.






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speckledtrout
Alabama Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Apr 2011
1711 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Ottothedumb, the numbers aren't cooked but the Ghestapo isn't showing the whole picture either.

Several news outlets have shown how the unemployment numbers are being spun by regime. Pretty sad when the government won't tell the American people the whole truth.







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XKEnut
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
1106 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Please correct me if wrong but I recall that a week or two before the UE report it was announced that the Labor Dept "found" some previously unknown 850,000 jobs created over the previous year. Most of these were apparently part time but it was enough to push the rate down to 7.8 using standard statistical methods. The book cooking occurred with the magic discovery of nearly 1 million jobs, not in the later calculation, and therefore they can claim with straight faces tha it is all above board.





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BigJim
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
2692 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

I, for one, never claimed a conspiracy was afoot. I do calim the 7.8% is not indicitive of the true unemployment rate or the fustration/suffering across this nation.

Its fundementally dishonest for the obama administration to crow about the 7.8% rate as if it indicates economic success.


This.

The rate is the number of people actively looking for work that cannot get it.

So you also need to looks at the job creation numbers, which are trailing what economists tell us we need just to keep up with population growth.

So the economy sux, but if you read one number while squinting, everything's cool!






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Radiojones
USA Fan
The Twilight Zone
Member since Feb 2007
6863 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked








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Catman88
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
40109 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

statistical anomaly?


Its either this or they were cooked. The numbers presented are not possible based on the actual reports. Any sane person can see this.

I seriously doubt we get the anomaly 2x in a row so right before election day this may all come raining down. Should it happen again then there is no question there is cheating going on. There has to be a correction or a fricking miracle in the job market.






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buddhavista
Member since Jul 2012
3543 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

Irregardless

is not a word.
quote:

7.8% unemployment is a train wreck.

well not really. 7.8% over the history of the country is somewhat high, but not ridiculous. It was 7.5% in 1984 and reagan won. I think the real issue is the unemployment rate is much higher than the stat line due to the reclassification of various numbers.







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Radiojones
USA Fan
The Twilight Zone
Member since Feb 2007
6863 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

Irregardless

is not a word.


Perhaps you would like to argue with Merriam-Webster Irregardless

And yes, 7.8% unemployment is a disaster. We should be well under 6% unemployment by now. Even Obama's administration said so when they got the stimulus passed.






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Tiger n Miami AU83
Auburn Fan
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
35304 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Did any actual news outlets specifically claim or strongly imply the numbers were falsified in some way?





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MFn GIMP
LSU Fan
Owensboro, Kentucky
Member since Feb 2011
8648 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Is Gallup a member of "the reactionary party?" LINK

quote:

This blog mentioned in mid-September that it was possible -- if unlikely, based on Gallup's survey data that include 30,000 interviews per month -- that September's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall to 7.9%. Still, Friday's BLS report of a drop to 7.8% in the Household survey seemed to surprise everyone, as has been the case on many occasions this year.

The problem is that even though the Household survey tends to be very volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after the prior month's numbers. The consensus estimate was that the government would report that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in September. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter and seems to be no better this quarter. The government's Establishment survey shows there were 114,000 new jobs created in September -- very close to the consensus of 113,000 -- and not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.

The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed


What about former director of the CBO Douglas Holtz-Eakin who said that the jobs report was a "statistical anomaly"






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ironsides
LSU Fan
Nashville, TN
Member since May 2006
6241 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


Right but we calculated it differently when Reagan won - if we calculated it the same way the # would be over 14%





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ottothewise
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2008
32094 posts

re: false propaganda: that the jobs numbers were cooked


quote:

The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed


What about former director of the CBO Douglas Holtz-Eakin who said that the jobs report was a "statistical anomaly"



meanwhile, we have this metric and its better than expected.

I agree with you that the metric itself is not acceptable to ANYONE on TD, of ANY party.

And please remember, MFn Gimp, my personal position is that there should be ZERO unemployment, and that typical 'acceptable' numbers like 3.5% unemployment leave 10 million people out of work.

As long as the WTO runs the economy, you wont see full employment. In the minds of the WTO CEO's potential inflation would outweigh the benefits of having everyone working.






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