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MLB - Division Futures 2nd half
Posted on 7/3/12 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 7/3/12 at 2:21 pm
Saw some surprising lines for the 2nd half of the MLB season and wanted some thoughts. I know there's value in some of these but I'm only interested in chasing after a team that has a legit shot at the division.
AL East is pretty stout with very solid teams.
Biggest dogs are
Orioles 12-1
Blue Jays 12-1
I don't know think there's a realistic shot at one of these teams overtaking the big 3 in the east, and I don't think there's value at those odds, but its hard to turn your nose at a team that's above .500 in that division and saying they don't have a shot.
AL Central - I think there's real value here.
The weakest division in the AL right now.
Royals 35-1
Twins 100-1
I know the twins are 8 games back, but at 100-1 and their offensive potential do you guys think they have a shot at the AL central?
Detroit is still the favorite followed by Chi Sox, I just don't think their that far ahead of the Twins or the Royals.
Al West - Looks like a two horse race, I'd be shocked if the rangers don't keep it locked up and there's little value in the angels. The A's at 120-1 and the Mariners at 150-1 just don't have the athletes to win the division under any stretch of the imagination.
NL thoughts to follow.
AL East is pretty stout with very solid teams.
Biggest dogs are
Orioles 12-1
Blue Jays 12-1
I don't know think there's a realistic shot at one of these teams overtaking the big 3 in the east, and I don't think there's value at those odds, but its hard to turn your nose at a team that's above .500 in that division and saying they don't have a shot.
AL Central - I think there's real value here.
The weakest division in the AL right now.
Royals 35-1
Twins 100-1
I know the twins are 8 games back, but at 100-1 and their offensive potential do you guys think they have a shot at the AL central?
Detroit is still the favorite followed by Chi Sox, I just don't think their that far ahead of the Twins or the Royals.
Al West - Looks like a two horse race, I'd be shocked if the rangers don't keep it locked up and there's little value in the angels. The A's at 120-1 and the Mariners at 150-1 just don't have the athletes to win the division under any stretch of the imagination.
NL thoughts to follow.
3
Posted on 7/3/12 at 2:28 pm to JB Bama
I think you have a pretty good handle on it. Orioles and especially the Jays don't really have a shot.
Royals would be interesting if they had another good starter. Before the season I laid a bet on them. Over 79 wins. Think I might just get that one.
Interested to see the line on the Dbacks. Think they have a legit shot.
Royals would be interesting if they had another good starter. Before the season I laid a bet on them. Over 79 wins. Think I might just get that one.
quote:
NL thoughts to follow.
Interested to see the line on the Dbacks. Think they have a legit shot.
Posted on 7/3/12 at 2:38 pm to JB Bama
Jays no shot
I'd like to say the Orioles can hang around but I doubt it and odds aren't worth it agreed
The Twins are very interesting. For the horrible start they had, they are still in it. No one has run away and Detroit is a failure something ain't right with that team.
I'd take a flyer on the twins at 100-1. Ploufee/Span etc hitting well, Lirano is back somewhat, no great team- I say do that
waiting on your NL questions too
I'd like to say the Orioles can hang around but I doubt it and odds aren't worth it agreed
The Twins are very interesting. For the horrible start they had, they are still in it. No one has run away and Detroit is a failure something ain't right with that team.
I'd take a flyer on the twins at 100-1. Ploufee/Span etc hitting well, Lirano is back somewhat, no great team- I say do that
waiting on your NL questions too
Posted on 7/3/12 at 5:41 pm to stapuffmarshy
NL Odds
The east seems pretty wide open.
Braves 2-1
Marlins 8-1
Phillies 7-1 (who would have guessed that in april)
Mets 8-1
Washington -150
Man this division is loaded with young pitching! I still think Washington is at least a year off, they certainly are scared of over working their young pitchers and limiting pitch counts. Crazy to think Zimmerman has the lowest ERA on the team and a losing record. The Mets seem to be the biggest surprise and there's almost no limit to Dickey's upside at this point. It will be interesting to see how that pitching rotation handles the second half. If they can get some production out of 3-5 starters I like their chances down the stretch (where I think the Nats will fade).
NL Central
No value in this division as the Reds are -150 and the Cards are +150. I like the Cards to pull it out in the end but not enough to put any value on the pick. Too bad the Cubs and the Astros are so bad because 150-1 to win a division is pretty staggering. Pirates are a nice young team with good bats, but at 5.5-1 I don't think there's enough upside.
NL West
The Giants are the favorite at -150 but with the Lincecom we've seen the last 2 years I don't think they have the pitching needed down the stretch. Dodgers are a close second at +120 but they certainly look like a team with some weaknesses. Taking a week off of offense isn't a good sign to future success especially before the break.
I like the Dbacks at 4.5-1 probably worth a small play, but since I don't consider them a top 4 team in the NL hard to justify anything substantial.
100-1 on the Rockies and Padres feels optimistic at this point.
The east seems pretty wide open.
Braves 2-1
Marlins 8-1
Phillies 7-1 (who would have guessed that in april)
Mets 8-1
Washington -150
Man this division is loaded with young pitching! I still think Washington is at least a year off, they certainly are scared of over working their young pitchers and limiting pitch counts. Crazy to think Zimmerman has the lowest ERA on the team and a losing record. The Mets seem to be the biggest surprise and there's almost no limit to Dickey's upside at this point. It will be interesting to see how that pitching rotation handles the second half. If they can get some production out of 3-5 starters I like their chances down the stretch (where I think the Nats will fade).
NL Central
No value in this division as the Reds are -150 and the Cards are +150. I like the Cards to pull it out in the end but not enough to put any value on the pick. Too bad the Cubs and the Astros are so bad because 150-1 to win a division is pretty staggering. Pirates are a nice young team with good bats, but at 5.5-1 I don't think there's enough upside.
NL West
The Giants are the favorite at -150 but with the Lincecom we've seen the last 2 years I don't think they have the pitching needed down the stretch. Dodgers are a close second at +120 but they certainly look like a team with some weaknesses. Taking a week off of offense isn't a good sign to future success especially before the break.
I like the Dbacks at 4.5-1 probably worth a small play, but since I don't consider them a top 4 team in the NL hard to justify anything substantial.
100-1 on the Rockies and Padres feels optimistic at this point.
Posted on 7/4/12 at 8:59 am to JB Bama
I don't see much to go with in the NL either
I agree with you on the Nats. I think they are a year away mentally. JMO and certainly could be wrong.
I like the Mets there. Dickey/Santana/Niese/Chris Young have been outstanding and if Gee can get straight they might have the best rotation in the league (who woulda ever thought that?)- but 8-1 ain't really much of a play at this point
Phils done/ Braves just dont seem to have "it", to me anyway
Pirates/Reds in the central, not buying the Cards at this point but odds are not worth a play
Rockies Padres are a waste and I think Giants run away in the end
I agree with you on the Nats. I think they are a year away mentally. JMO and certainly could be wrong.
I like the Mets there. Dickey/Santana/Niese/Chris Young have been outstanding and if Gee can get straight they might have the best rotation in the league (who woulda ever thought that?)- but 8-1 ain't really much of a play at this point
Phils done/ Braves just dont seem to have "it", to me anyway
Pirates/Reds in the central, not buying the Cards at this point but odds are not worth a play
Rockies Padres are a waste and I think Giants run away in the end
Posted on 7/4/12 at 10:10 am to stapuffmarshy
quote:
I know the twins are 8 games back, but at 100-1 and their offensive potential do you guys think they have a shot at the AL central?
As a lifelong Twins fan, I'll tell you they aren't worth the flyer-- and I'll even explain why.
Right now, they're juggling 3 spots in the rotation between unhealthy guys and high minor leaguers-- only Diamond (who has been excellent) and Liriano are semi-solid-- and it's worth remembering that Liriano can go back to basket case at the drop of a hat; they even had him in the bullpen until the starting pitching issues became so severe that he had to be put back in the rotation.
Right now they're actually winning more than they should, based on run differential; they're worst in baseball by a big margin, even with a 5 game winning streak and a winning record in June. One other team is over -70 in run differential-- the Twins are -83, and were -90 until this latest mini-run.
Even if the offense finds some consistency, Morneau starts to hit for average again, and the rotation stabilizes, the Twins bullpen has thrown the 3rd most innings in MLB so far-- meaning the arms in the pen are going to start to wear down, as they always do.
I wish there was more to be happy about, with this team- and there are some good things to take away from what has happened the last 40 games or so, for the future-- but save your money. They're not a good choice for a flyer.
This post was edited on 7/4/12 at 10:11 am
Posted on 7/4/12 at 12:30 pm to BoardReader
that's gotta be one of the gloomiest write-ups on a team i've ever read
Posted on 7/4/12 at 6:08 pm to BenDover
quote:
that's gotta be one of the gloomiest write-ups on a team i've ever read
Just trying to make sure that other people don't waste their cash, on my team.
It's not all gloom and doom-- playing .500 ball the rest of the way would be a huge springboard for next year, and figuring out what the long term plan for Morneau will be can help lead to a quick revitalization; Sano will be in the lineup by 2014, I hope, and things will be right in the Central again.
Posted on 7/4/12 at 6:44 pm to JB Bama
#FirstPlaceBuccos
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