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Message
Vegas should have Bama fans very worried...
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:51 pm
Line started at LSU -1...all the big money has been coming in on LSU and now the line is Bama -1. reverse line movement almost always favors the team with the money. Vegas knows more than anyone, they got millions riding on this. 
11
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:54 pm to LSUzealot
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:54 pm to LSUzealot
Please break it down for the non-gamblers like myself.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:55 pm to bona fide
quote:
bona fide
Your avatar makes me wanna smash. Is she Thai?
Posted on 12/17/11 at 12:57 pm to LSUzealot
actually you have this wrong. 65% of the bets are on LSU and the line has moved in Bama's favor. This should have LSU fans very worried. The reverse line movement is gooing in Bamas favor. May want to check your title again.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:02 pm to The ATL
quote:
actually you have this wrong. 65% of the bets are on LSU and the line has moved in Bama's favor. This should have LSU fans very worried. The reverse line movement is gooing in Bamas favor. May want to check your title again.
This is correct. Heard a random stat before the 11/5 game that when the line moves away from the money 85% of the time the favored team wins.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:03 pm to DEG
So LSU is going to lose?
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:06 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Line started at LSU -1...all the big money has been coming in on LSU and now the line is Bama -1. reverse line movement almost always favors the team with the money. Vegas knows more than anyone, they got millions riding on this.
I'm pretty sure "Vegas" does not care. "Vegas" only wants equal money on each side. The line moves accordingly to achieve that and "Vegas" makes their money off the juice. Max total profit = 0.1 X 0.5 X total dollars bet. A huge bet on on side or many little bets on one side can move the line in the opposite direction to attract more money to the other side to even things out.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:06 pm to TulaneTigerFan
Jesus...are we really going to start the same threads we started and talk about the same stuff we did before 11/5. This exact thread was started before that game and the same reverse line movement was happening then too. 23 days cannot come quick enough!
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:07 pm to LSUzealot
This is stupid no matter what. Vegas has been WAY off on LSU since the very first game.
Not shocked at all that they are still off.
LSU and Okie Lite have been 2 of the best plays all damn year long...
Not shocked at all that they are still off.
LSU and Okie Lite have been 2 of the best plays all damn year long...
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:08 pm to LSUzealot
Rarely does a thread so false get made. You said the exact opposite of what this implies.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:10 pm to TheSexecutioner
He definitely is off.
BUT, it is possible with the game being this far out that they are hitting Bama, and then will hammer the shite out of LSU if the line can get to +1.5 or higher for LSU.
BUT, it is possible with the game being this far out that they are hitting Bama, and then will hammer the shite out of LSU if the line can get to +1.5 or higher for LSU.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:10 pm to TheSexecutioner
I may have failed. Forgive me as I was at the casino till 6am & I'm still lying in bed hungover Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:10 pm to LSUzealot
Yeah if a team opens as favored and then flips to the dog after a few days, that means the money is coming in on the other team.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:12 pm to TheSexecutioner
Does the point spread really "imply" anything about a game that's already been played once?
This post was edited on 12/17/11 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:12 pm to okietiger
quote:
Yeah if a team opens as favored and then flips to the dog after a few days, that means the money is coming in on the other team.
All the money is coming in for LSU though.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:13 pm to LSUzealot
same thing happened nov 5th
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:17 pm to LSUzealot
this is vegas odds on friday Vegas , odds , looks good to me
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:18 pm to TheSexecutioner
The only line that maters in Vegas is the initial line, and even that can be dubious. Vegas wants action on both sides of the bet and they set a line designed to get even money on both sides so they can make money. If one side gets to much action, for whatever reason, then the line will shift. This has little to do with who will win...
Silly post
Silly post
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:19 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Line started at LSU -1...all the big money has been coming in on LSU and now the line is Bama -1. reverse line movement almost always favors the team with the money. Vegas knows more than anyone, they got millions riding on this.
Umm yeah. You ain't got a clue. You better stick to djing or whatever it is that you do.
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