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Message
re: Vegas should have Bama fans very worried...
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:29 pm to LSUzealot
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:29 pm to LSUzealot
If most of the money were coming in on LSU, the line would not have moved in a way that encourages more LSU betting.
Many people do not understand that the pointspread is not made as a prediction of a game's outcome but simply as a way to divide the betting public on a game. If substantially more money is bet on Alabama, the line moves to encourage more money bet on LSU. If Vegas (etc.) can divided the betting public equally, then they have a sure thing because a 10% vig is charged on all lossing bets. In such cases, that 10% of all lossing bets is pocketed by the bookmaker as profit.
In a game as hyped as this one, the betting public (and, thus, the betting line) is influenced by what is said by ESPN's Talking Heads as well as bar talk (e.g. "It's hard to beat a good team twice in the same season.")
Therefore, it's little wonder that the betting public has favored the Gumps and moved the line. In the end, it has nothing to do with how the game will turn out. If it did, bettors would wait for those deals that happen "65% of the time" and make millions over the course of a season.
Many people do not understand that the pointspread is not made as a prediction of a game's outcome but simply as a way to divide the betting public on a game. If substantially more money is bet on Alabama, the line moves to encourage more money bet on LSU. If Vegas (etc.) can divided the betting public equally, then they have a sure thing because a 10% vig is charged on all lossing bets. In such cases, that 10% of all lossing bets is pocketed by the bookmaker as profit.
In a game as hyped as this one, the betting public (and, thus, the betting line) is influenced by what is said by ESPN's Talking Heads as well as bar talk (e.g. "It's hard to beat a good team twice in the same season.")
Therefore, it's little wonder that the betting public has favored the Gumps and moved the line. In the end, it has nothing to do with how the game will turn out. If it did, bettors would wait for those deals that happen "65% of the time" and make millions over the course of a season.
1
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:42 pm to MidCityTiger
believe 1 thing.....Vegas IS NOT moving the line towards bama because people are betting LSU. The money is coming in on Bama and that is why the line went the way it did.
Anybody that thinks Vegas moves a line in the opposite direction of the money coming in is a complete moron and has no clue how the betting world works.
I will say that it don't mean a damn thing. We all know that everyone except for LSU fans think that Bama has the better team, so it only makes sense that they are betting bama. -1 either way doesn't really matter
Anybody that thinks Vegas moves a line in the opposite direction of the money coming in is a complete moron and has no clue how the betting world works.
I will say that it don't mean a damn thing. We all know that everyone except for LSU fans think that Bama has the better team, so it only makes sense that they are betting bama. -1 either way doesn't really matter
Posted on 12/17/11 at 1:44 pm to cajun12
They got some of my action 
Posted on 12/17/11 at 3:15 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
LSUzealot
come on dude. you know better than this. it's simple balance.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 3:28 pm to Rebel
goddammit people quit bumping my shitty thread
Posted on 12/17/11 at 4:18 pm to LSUzealot
Bump
had to
had toPosted on 12/17/11 at 5:18 pm to LSUzealot
Reverse line movement away from the side of the money is what you watch for...that favors Bama
Eta: didn't read enough to know you already got called out
Eta: didn't read enough to know you already got called out
This post was edited on 12/17/11 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 12/17/11 at 5:24 pm to Ford Frenzy
When does Bama play Vegas? 
Posted on 12/17/11 at 5:32 pm to LSUzealot
I'm still lying in bed hungover
priceless
priceless
Posted on 12/17/11 at 6:25 pm to windmill
50% of you guys have no clue how a line works. Please educate yourself before making an arse out of yourself. This is driving me crazy!!!!!!
Posted on 12/17/11 at 6:49 pm to gemlsu
quote:
50% of you guys have no clue how a line works
I'm going with the over..
Posted on 12/17/11 at 7:03 pm to Kim
your avi--What are you, Miss Sans...drinking out of cups?!
Posted on 12/17/11 at 7:18 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
quit bumping
sorry bro
Posted on 12/17/11 at 7:55 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
LSUzealot
Bump
Posted on 12/17/11 at 8:20 pm to GumboPot
I really hope some of you don't bet with real money.
Reverse line movement happens when the total number of bets favors one side but the line moves the opposite way. So let's say 70% of the population is betting on LSU -1. If the line, however, moves towards Alabama, then that means the professionals who are putting down big money are betting on Alabama.
The reason people worry about this trend is because it means almost all the idiots sitting on their couches yapping about JJ are taking LSU but almost every expert is taking Alabama in a big way to move the line away from LSU.
People put way too much into line movements though.
Reverse line movement happens when the total number of bets favors one side but the line moves the opposite way. So let's say 70% of the population is betting on LSU -1. If the line, however, moves towards Alabama, then that means the professionals who are putting down big money are betting on Alabama.
The reason people worry about this trend is because it means almost all the idiots sitting on their couches yapping about JJ are taking LSU but almost every expert is taking Alabama in a big way to move the line away from LSU.
People put way too much into line movements though.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 8:24 pm to ODoyleRulez
Posted on 12/17/11 at 8:28 pm to TheSexecutioner
Exactly - money is going on AL so the point spread went the other way to even the odds.
Posted on 12/17/11 at 9:10 pm to crimsonsaint
Who can i bet with? Sold my tickets to someone who paid way too much and ready to parlay. Just need the right bookie and the points. LSU +7.5? Anyone?
This post was edited on 12/17/11 at 9:11 pm
Posted on 12/17/11 at 9:22 pm to fatboydave
bumpity for zealot 
Posted on 12/17/11 at 9:50 pm to dreaux
Saban to Texas.
Bump
Bump
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