Official BCS Discussion Thread | TigerDroppings.com
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lsumatt
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
12543 posts

Official BCS Discussion Thread

BCS STANDINGS

COACHES POLL

HARRIS POLL

Top BCS standings are:

1) LSU
2) Bama
3) Ok State
4) Stanford
5) Va Tech

REMATCH

While it is looking more likely that a rematch occurs, I am still not completely counting out Ok State of they beat OU. The will be ahead of Bama in all of the computers, which means in theory they only need 25% of voters to put them over Bama (as long as long as everyone else puts Ok State at #3 in their ballot). Ok State's real problem is Va Tech if they beat Clemson. It is hard to imagine ALL or MOST voters putting Ok State over the ACC Champ Va Tech - so Ok State basically needs Va tech to lose to have any chance.

The other problem for Ok State is Stanford, who beat a decent team this past week and was already ranked above them. I think if Ok State wins (especially big), most voters re-consider and put OSU above Stanford since Ok state at least won their conference and played a better schedule, but probably not all voters. So given that fact - OSU needs to win (probably by double digits), have Va Tech lose, and then convince ~1/3 of voters to vote for a team that actually won their conference and hasn't played LSU yet. I wouldn't bet on it, but it at least seems plausible.

If Va Tech won, they would have an argument - they won the ACC and beat every team on their schedule. But their computer score is way to weak and they would need to get 75+% of voters to change their mind and put them over Bama. I think that is close to impossible.

LSU LOSS

Yeah, I know, LSU can't lose. But for arguments sake, I think we are in no matter what happens in the SECCG. In order for LSU to get knocked out, Va tech would probably need to lose, OSU win, and then have like 2/3 of voters fill out their ballots 1) Bama; 2) OSU; 3) LSU. That seems pretty ridiculous to me. In fact, I think it is almost unethical for voters to put LSU behind Bama, albeit 2 spots, and don't think many voters would even consider it. Even with a loss LSU would have a better record, better SOS, beat them in Tuscaloosa, won the SECW, and then lost a game that Bama didn't even earn the right to play. If LSU gets destroyed, we'll revisit - but we all know that won't happen.

This post was edited on 11/27 at 10:54 pm



fightingsaint3
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2360 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread


TigerinCharlotte
LSU Fan
Charlotte, NC - The Queen City
Member since Sep 2008
1094 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
There's Matt!


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silstang23
LSU Fan
Bossier City, LA
Member since Oct 2007
4708 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
quote:

Ok State's real problem is Va Tech if they beat Clemson. It is hard to imagine ALL or MOST voters putting Ok State over the ACC Champ Va Tech - so Ok State basically needs Va tech to lose to have any chance.


Just curious. Why do you say this? Isn't the Big 12 stronger than the ACC?


TigerinOkieHell
LSU Fan
Oklahoma City
Member since Oct 2010
1495 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
So basically OSU now needs Clemson to win or their chances are severely reduced.


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Catahoula
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
4252 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
quote:

lsumatt




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Rickety Cricket
Navy Fan
Premium Member
Member since Aug 2007
38049 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
And we're off


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lsumatt
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
12543 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
quote:

Why do you say this? Isn't the Big 12 stronger than the ACC?


1. because they are already putting Va Tech over OSU
2. Va tech would have beaten every team on their schedule.
3. ACC is weaker, but the championship game is a perceived weakness for the Big 12.
4. Better loss for Va Tech


DA
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
16251 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Thanks. If Okie State were to beat the Sooners it gives voters an opt out if they are looking for one. It will be interesting to see how the conversation evolves during the week.

I agree with you that Bama is probable, but if I were a Bama fan, I would be sweating bullets just the same. Okie State will have a case. Maybe the voters will want a new match-up.


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TigerinOkieHell
LSU Fan
Oklahoma City
Member since Oct 2010
1495 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
I assume VaTech still has no real chance at getting into the NCG correct?


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Captain Want
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
1594 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Geaux tigers (LSU)
Geaux tigers (Clemson)
Geaux Oklahoma State (by 2+ TDs)


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Shankopotomus
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Brian Roberts Fan
Member since Feb 2009
18321 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
good to see you on board today

Check out this:

LINK

Brad edwards is now officially on the ESPN Bama bandwagon as well, it really is pretty unbelievable when you think about the blatant bias going on here....


LSURulzSEC
LSU Fan
Lafayette via Oakdale
Member since Aug 2004
52820 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Matt if Va Tech beats Clemson, their only loss of the season...how does that effect their rankings? Thanks

Edit: nevermind I see your answer...thanks
This post was edited on 11/27 at 11:27 am


Captain Want
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
1594 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Matt, the AP poll has Oklahoma State ranked 3, thoughts?


7thWardTiger
LSU Fan
Richmond, Texas
Member since Nov 2009
22483 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Matt, i ran the comp models this morning.

1.    LSU 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 = 100.00
2.    Alabama 23 + 23 + 24 + 24 + 24 + 24 = 95.00
3.    Oklahoma State 24 + 24 + 23 + 23 + 23 + 23 = 93.00
4.    Oklahoma 22 + 19 + 20 + 15 + 21 + 20 = 80.00
4.    Virginia Tech 21 + 17 + 7 + 22 + 20 + 22 = 80.00
6.    Stanford 18 + 22 + 16 + 21 + 22 + 13 = 77.00
7.    Kansas State 17 + 15 + 21 + 19 + 12 + 21 = 72.00
8.    Boise State 20 + 18 + 14 + 20 + 17 + 14 = 69.00
9.    Houston 19 + 11 + 18 + 16 + 18 + 15 = 67.00
10.  Arkansas 13 + 16 + 22 + 17 + 14 + 18 = 65.00
10.  South Carolina 15 + 13 + 15 + 18 + 19 + 17 = 65.00
12.  Baylor 10 + 8 + 19 + 13 + 15 + 19 = 57.00
13.  Oregon 11 + 20 + 17 + 14 + 10 + 12 = 54.00
14.  Georgia 12 + 6 + 12 + 12 + 16 + 16 = 52.00
15.  USC 14 + 21 + 11 + 11 + 11 + 10 = 47.00
16.  Michigan 16 + 9 + 0 + 9 + 13 + 9 = 40.00
17.  Michigan State 9 + 14 + 5 + 10 + 8 + 8 = 35.00
18.  Texas 4 + 1 + 13 + 5 + 9 + 11 = 29.00
19.  Nebraska 7 + 7 + 1 + 8 + 7 + 4 = 25.00
20.  TCU 5 + 10 + 6 + 7 + 5 + 3 = 23.00
21.  Wisconsin 8 + 12 + 0 + 6 + 6 + 2 = 22.00
22.  Clemson 3 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 5 = 15.00
23.  Penn State 6 + 4 + 0 + 2 + 4 + 1 = 11.00
24.  Auburn 0 + 3 + 8 + 3 + 0 + 0 = 6.00
25.  Notre Dame 1 + 2 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 2.00


Seems as if Bama's win over Auburn helped them take back 2nd place in 2 comps from OSU. I fully expect OSU to take those 2 and maybe 1 more. From running my own calculations, it seems that OSU is going to need to get to a true #3 in the human polls, pulling around 92% of the vote, in order to jump bama in the final BCS standings.
This post was edited on 11/27 at 11:28 am


rpears2
LSU Fan
Katy, TX
Member since Dec 2006
25 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
AP Poll just came out with:
1. LSU
2. Bama
3. OSU


I know it isn't included, but this should give us an idea of how the Harris poll might change...


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WikiTiger
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2007
40721 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Okie State jumped Stanford in the AP Poll to move up to #3 this week without even playing and with Stanford winning convincingly.

That does not bode well for Alabama is the Harris and Coaches follow suit this week or next week.
This post was edited on 11/27 at 11:28 am


7thWardTiger
LSU Fan
Richmond, Texas
Member since Nov 2009
22483 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
quote:

Matt, the AP poll has Oklahoma State ranked 3, thoughts?
AP doesn't count in BCS but it usually mirrors the Harris in terms of placement.


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lsumatt
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
12543 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
Va Tech will still be terrible in the computers - maybe behind teams like Kansas State and Arkansas. Again, they would need at least 75-90% of voters to put them over Alabama and I can't see that happening at all.


BayouTigers4Life
LSU Fan
Chi-town
Member since Dec 2004
6558 posts

re: Official BCS Discussion Thread
This is what I've been thinking about. OSU and VT - 2 one loss conference champs splitting votes and letting Bama get through.


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