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Numerical Analysis of the SEC for this week...
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:21 pm
I took all the SEC games played to date and used a least squares fit to produce a strength rating for each team (using a standard 4 point home field advantage). As the scale floats, I put the weakest SEC team at zero (sorry Ole Miss).
This Week's Games
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss
UT by 5.68 over UK
Team Ratings
LSU 43.63
Bama 37.82
Arkansas 31.15
South Carolina 27.56
Florida 27.23
Georgia 25.65
Vanderbilt 18.08
Mississippi State 17.21
Auburn 16.92
Tennessee 11.45
Kentucky 1.77
Ole Miss 0.00
This Week's Games
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss
UT by 5.68 over UK
Team Ratings
LSU 43.63
Bama 37.82
Arkansas 31.15
South Carolina 27.56
Florida 27.23
Georgia 25.65
Vanderbilt 18.08
Mississippi State 17.21
Auburn 16.92
Tennessee 11.45
Kentucky 1.77
Ole Miss 0.00
2
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:26 pm to DocBugbear
I don't know what that means, but I like that we are at the top. 
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:29 pm to WavinWilly
quote:
I don't know what that means, but I like that we are at the top.
For example, let's say you want to predict the score of LSU at Bama. You add 4 to Bama's score and then subtract it from LSU's score. That would predict LSU to beat Bama by 1.81 points in Bama.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:42 pm to DocBugbear
Where did 43 come from? Formula ?
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:50 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Where did 43 come from? Formula ?
Error minimization. The set of numbers above produces scores to the SEC games with the lowest possible error.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:59 pm to DocBugbear
I shoulda paid better attention in all my statistics courses.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:00 pm to DocBugbear
And FYI, after looking at the errors it means LSU has an 84% chance of beating Arkansas.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:16 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
You add 4 to Bama's score and then subtract it from LSU's score. That would predict LSU to beat Bama by 1.81 points in Bama.
So, if you made home field worth 3 as is common in betting, we would beat them by 2.81. Round up and you get 3... 9-6=3.
Spot on
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:18 pm to WavinWilly
quote:
So, if you made home field worth 3 as is common in betting, we would beat them by 2.81. Round up and you get 3... 9-6=3.
Spot on
THat's what they use for the pros, but in college it seems to go 4 to 4.5 for home field.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:20 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
I took all the SEC games played to date and used a least squares fit to produce a strength rating for each team (using a standard 4 point home field advantage). As the scale floats, I put the weakest SEC team at zero (sorry Ole Miss).
This didn't involve burying any chicken bones in the back yard, did it?
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:30 pm to Kim
quote:
This didn't involve burying any chicken bones in the back yard, did it?
There were no chickens involved. Only game cocks...
This post was edited on 11/24/11 at 6:31 pm
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