LSU's Talent Advantage Evaporates Beginning This Saturday

The next four games will be determined by coaching and execution. We won't be able to simply rely upon some overwhelming talent advantage, expecially along the lines.

While I recognize that we have already played three ranked opponents to date, we have enjoyed a significant talent advantage over each. This is confirmed by analysis of the Rivals recruiting rankings, which are a meaningful proxy for a team's overall depth, strength, and speed. (As I have noted several times before, the Rivals rankings have been statistically validated in numerous long-term studies. There is a statistically significant and incontrovertible correlation between recruiting rankings and on-field performance.)

LSU has recruited effectively over the last five years. Its average five year class ranking, rounded to the nearest integer, is six (6). In comparison, the average five year class rankings of our first three ranked opponents have been pedestrian:

Oregon: 17
MSU: 38
WVU: 33

The delta between our average class rating and that of our adversaries represents a significant on-field disparity in size, athleticism, and depth. Only Oregon approached our echelon of talent, and most of their higher class rankings were attributable to coveted skill position players, rather than linemen.

By contrast, here are the five year average class rankings for our upcoming four opponents:

Florida: 6
Tennessee: 14 (even with one extreme outlier year where their class was ranked 35 - the remainder of their classes were Top 15 or Top 10)
Auburn: 11
Alabama: 3 (and over the last four years, an astounding 1.4 average classs ranking)

Using Rivals as our guide, all four of our next opponents will be more talented than any foe we have encountered thus far. This is no revelation. Rather, it is merely empirical evidence which supports the widely-held belief that the SEC is ascendent. More importantly, this evidence offers insight into WHY the SEC dominates the college football landscape. As the SEC faithful preach on a daily basis, the conference simply has bigger, better, faster players, especially in the trenches.

Applied to LSU, the average recruiting rankings help to explain why we have eviscerated out of conference challengers, but we haven't appeared in the SEC championship game since 2007. Against intersectional competition, we can deploy our talent advantage to great effect in a fairly straightforward manner. Namely, we can line up and dominate both sides of the line irrespective of scheme. The gross overall talent disparity also camoflouges lapses in discipline, lack of consistency, poor technique, ill-advised playcalls, strange Crowton-esque schemes, and deficiencies at positions like QB. On the other hand, to defeat marquee SEC nemeses, talent alone isn't sufficient. LSU must execute consistently, apply proper technique, craft creative gameplans, avoid inattentiveness, limit penalties, and play error free football. We've obviously shown the capacity to do just that, but not over the course of an entire SEC season. In each of our most recent years, we have suffered breakdowns in playcalling or player execution or game management in at least one SEC contest. The challenge for this incredibly gifted set of Tigers and their coaches is to establish consistent excellence over the next four games. If we don't, we'll once more finish as a glamorous runner-up in the SEC West. However, if we do, we have an opportunity to accomplish something not witnessed in Baton Rouge for almost half a century: the elusive undefeated season.