- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Probabilities (sort of) for the remaining 6
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:46 pm
A lot of us out there were of the opinion that this team could be substantially improved over 2009 and still finish 9-3. That is certainly in the cards.
However the regular season can only end 6 ways:
6-6, 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, 11-1 and 12-0
Lumping the two lowest together, not based on any particular science, I have:
~ 2% that LSU finishes 7-5 or 6-6
98% chance LSU finishes 8-4 or better
80% chance LSU finishes 9-3 or better
65% chance LSU finishes 10-2 or better
30% chance LSU finishes 11-1 or better
15% chance LSU finishes 12-0
Your results may vary.
However the regular season can only end 6 ways:
6-6, 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, 10-2, 11-1 and 12-0
Lumping the two lowest together, not based on any particular science, I have:
~ 2% that LSU finishes 7-5 or 6-6
98% chance LSU finishes 8-4 or better
80% chance LSU finishes 9-3 or better
65% chance LSU finishes 10-2 or better
30% chance LSU finishes 11-1 or better
15% chance LSU finishes 12-0
Your results may vary.
6
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:46 pm to Ace Midnight
math is hard.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:47 pm to Ace Midnight
Good post.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:50 pm to Ace Midnight
Something like this by my quick estimates...
6-6: ~0%
7-5: 0.5%
8-4: 15%
9-3: 30%
10-2: 35%
11-1: 15%
12-0: 4.5%
6-6: ~0%
7-5: 0.5%
8-4: 15%
9-3: 30%
10-2: 35%
11-1: 15%
12-0: 4.5%
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:54 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
9-3: 30%
10-2: 35%
so you're saying there's a 30% chance we lose all of the remaining big 3 games and a 65% chance we lose 2 outta 3...not so fast my friend
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:55 pm to LSUzealot
7-5 - 2% chance
8-4 - 8% chance
9-3 - 15% chance
10-2 - 30% chance
11-1 - 30% chance
12-0 - 15% chance
i think there's a 30% chance we lose 2 of our big 3 and a 30% chance we win 2 of our big 3...definitely don't think we lose any other games (mcneese ole miss & ulm)
8-4 - 8% chance
9-3 - 15% chance
10-2 - 30% chance
11-1 - 30% chance
12-0 - 15% chance
i think there's a 30% chance we lose 2 of our big 3 and a 30% chance we win 2 of our big 3...definitely don't think we lose any other games (mcneese ole miss & ulm)
This post was edited on 10/15/10 at 6:56 pm
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:55 pm to LSUzealot
yeah, maybe i tried to do that too quickly 
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:56 pm to Ace Midnight
You need to normalize-- your probabilities should add to 100%.
But I get your drift. I think.
But I get your drift. I think.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 6:58 pm to LSUzealot
Chance that Miles will pull another rabbit out of his arse - 100%
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:00 pm to atchafalaya
quote:
You need to normalize-- your probabilities should add to 100%.
But I get your drift. I think.
in his defense, he said "or better" meaning it includes his predicted record + any other record better than predicted
i.e. - 98% chance of going 7-5,8-4,9-3,10-2,11-1 OR 12-0
This post was edited on 10/15/10 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:01 pm to Ace Midnight
6-6 - 0% chance
7-5 - 0% chance
8-4 - 0% chance
9-3 - 0% chance
10-2 - 0% chance
11-1 - 1% chance
12-0 - 99% chance
7-5 - 0% chance
8-4 - 0% chance
9-3 - 0% chance
10-2 - 0% chance
11-1 - 1% chance
12-0 - 99% chance
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:02 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
definitely don't think we lose any other games (mcneese ole miss & ulm)
If you consider those 3 games as wins, and the 3 big games as 50/50 coin flips, then it would be...
9-3: 12.5%
10-2: 37.5%
11-1: 37.5%
12-0: 12.5%
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:03 pm to ipodking
quote:
11-1 - 1% chance
negative thinking imho
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:10 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
If you consider those 3 games as wins, and the 3 big games as 50/50 coin flips, then it would be...
9-3: 12.5%
10-2: 37.5%
11-1: 37.5%
12-0: 12.5%
Doc, I'm not quite sure about that - if he's considering those 3 wins (we've already won 6), then doesn't it go, if they're all 50/50:
10-2: 67.5%
11-1: 25%
12-0: 12.5%
This post was edited on 10/15/10 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:12 pm to Ace Midnight
No. If you flip a coin 3 times (i.e., start at 9-0), then here's the chances of getting...
0 tails: 1/8
1 tail: 3/8
2 tails: 3/8
3 tails: 1/8
0 tails: 1/8
1 tail: 3/8
2 tails: 3/8
3 tails: 1/8
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:12 pm to LSUzealot
Ah, "or better." Got it.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:19 pm to atchafalaya
It really is hard for me to adjust my attitude on how likely it is for LSU to end the regular season with at least 11 wins. But then I look at the remaining 6 games, and there's actually quite a good shot at it. It's going to take a while for it to be real to me though ... as in probably not until after the Auburn game.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 7:42 pm to Doc Fenton
After watching LSU play and removing the non=forced turnovers and penalties....
..LSU "should" win 11...and that means im saying I think we will lose either the Ark or Bama game....but not both. I just dont see this team losing to anyone else without a bunch of mistakes.
..LSU "should" win 11...and that means im saying I think we will lose either the Ark or Bama game....but not both. I just dont see this team losing to anyone else without a bunch of mistakes.
Posted on 10/15/10 at 8:27 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
No. If you flip a coin 3 times (i.e., start at 9-0), then here's the chances of getting...
You're right Doc (you already knew that) by getting to 9-0, I already assumed we win one more - 0-3 for the last 3 is a 1/8 chance (if all are 50/50).
Posted on 10/15/10 at 8:40 pm to Ace Midnight
Looking at it at another angle, probability of going undefeated for the remaining 6, let's just do the math.
Chances of LSU winning against:
McNeese .99
Auburn .55
Alabama .45
ULL .98
Ole Miss .80
Arkansas .50
Now what this doesn't factor into is the intangibles of winning vs losing; that is, if LSU wins the first 5, then it's chances of beating Arky goes up to .65 or .70. Conversely, if LSU loses 2, then beating Arky is maybe more like .40. In any rate, simply multiply to get probability of going undefeated = 9.6% or simply 1 in 10 chances to get to the SECCG undefeated. Not too bad! Calculate in a 50/50 chance of beating SCAR, and you get a 5% or 1 in 20 chance of getting to the NC game.
Chances of LSU winning against:
McNeese .99
Auburn .55
Alabama .45
ULL .98
Ole Miss .80
Arkansas .50
Now what this doesn't factor into is the intangibles of winning vs losing; that is, if LSU wins the first 5, then it's chances of beating Arky goes up to .65 or .70. Conversely, if LSU loses 2, then beating Arky is maybe more like .40. In any rate, simply multiply to get probability of going undefeated = 9.6% or simply 1 in 10 chances to get to the SECCG undefeated. Not too bad! Calculate in a 50/50 chance of beating SCAR, and you get a 5% or 1 in 20 chance of getting to the NC game.
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News