Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long) | TigerDroppings.com

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OBUDan
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Member since Aug 2006
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Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)



Few caveats to the numbers.

1) Players transferring for any reason
2) Players dismissed for any reason

I did not count any players lost to career ending injury, any players who opted to pursue a professional sport or any players who never it made it on campus.


I considered these 3 schools because they have coaches who have been there 4+ years and are legit contenders (which disqualfies Vandy). I did this because a) you can't draw reasonable conclusions from changing coaching staffs and b) even if vandy signed a full lot and kept every player they still wouldn't be competitive in the SEC so it's impossible to tell the affects of attrition.


Florida 72 20 27.8% 2005-2007
Georgia 67 10 14.9% 2005-2007
LSU 65 18 27.7% 2005-2007

That's recruits committed, recruits lost and percentage.

So, juxtaposing Florida to LSU due to their similar attrition rates, let's take a more in-depth look at the numbers and what affect this had on the depth chart.

QB: Each lost 1 5 star QB. However, the situations were significantly different. For LSU, losing Ryan Perrilloux was a tremendous blow to the depth chart. Perrilloux was dismissed prior to the season he was expected to become a starter, this after having a couple years of seasoning to prepare him for SEC play. As a result the Tigers were forced to resort to redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, which proved to be disastrous. As Lee continued to struggle the Tigers gave the duties to true freshman Jordan Jefferson, who again took the reigns this year as a true sophomore. It's unlikely that the entirety of LSU's offensive woes can be placed on the Perrilloux departure, but their struggles at the QB position certainly can. Conversely, Florida lost 5-star Cameron Newton at a different juncture. With Tebow already entrenched as a starter and prepared to hold the position for another 2 years, Newton was dismissed. Though we can't be sure of the effects of losing Tebow on the Florida offense, we can certainly deduce that they won't have to default to an entirely unexperienced QB this season, as John Brantley has had plenty of time to learn from the bench. Had Newton remained on the straight and narrow, he would have battled Brantley for the starting position but it's hard to see both of them sticking with Florida and sacrificing any chance to be a starter. In any case, Florida would have been prepared with a well-tutored starter behind Tebow. The Gators also lost 4-star Josh Portis, who many believe was the heir apparent to the Florida offense once Chris Leak graduated. However, due to the fact that Portis has never put it together at any point in his college career it seems unlikely that he would have done so for the Gators either. 3-star Bryan Waggener was another QB commit, but considering he was a project, it was unlikely he'd ever be a significant contributor.

RB: Losing a RB is perhaps the most insignicant loss of any position in football unless you already have a truly elite and unreplaceable talent (which is rare). In most cases teams will have a solid stable of running backs who are interchangeable and can be productive. LSU has lost 2 RBs to Florida's 3. By looking at current depth charts I don't think either team suffered tremendous losses due to these departures. For LSU one running back was 4-star Antonio Robinson, who was having trouble competing with backs younger than him. The other was 4-star Steven Korte. Korte could have helped the Tigers this year at the FB position but because he is listed as a RB it's impossible to know how that transition would have went. The Gators lost a trio of 4-star backs: Bo Williams, Chevon Walker, Mon Williams. The last 2 years the Gators have relied upon their smaller, speedier backs (Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey) and the power of Tebow to drive their running game. Both Bo and Mon Williams could have been alternatives as power backs. However, the Gators received transfer Emmanuel Moody who is more powerfully built and he was used sparingly throughout the year. Could they have provided a power running attack to help rest Tebow?

WR: At the receiver position Florida last 3 4-star talents while LSU lost 1 4-star and a 3-star. LSU has had tremendous success of late with their WRs from Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet to Demetrius Byrd and Brandon LaFell and now the future with Terrance Toliver and Rueben Randle. It is unlikely that 4-star Ricky Dixon would have ever made a significant contribution. 3-star Tim Molton was reportedly (according to corner Patrick Peterson) the hardest player to cover after the spring this year. Unfortunately Molton suffered an injury and felt he wasn't the same afterwards and transferred. Molton certainly could help a WR corps that will be very green next year. For Florida 4-stars Jamar Hornsby, Jarred Fayson, Nyan Boateng could all have been potential difference makers. Next season Florida will enter the season with the inconsistent Deonte Thompson as their top option. Hornsby and Boateng both had good size and Fayson had blazing speed. The Gators certainly could use that experience next year. Furthermore, without Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy this year their passing attack struggled at times.



This post was edited on 1/27 at 3:15 pm



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OBUDan
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40382 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


OL: LSU's line was woeful this year and looking at the amount of attrition at the position, it is no surprise why. Count 'em. The Tigers have lost (1)Kyle Anderson, (2)Matt Allen, (3)Steven Singleton, (4)Mark Snyder, (5)Zhamal Thomas, (6)Ernest McCoy, (7)Jarvis Jones, offensive line recruits. That is simply astounding. From practice reports Thomas, McCoy and Jones all showed flashes of being tremendous players. Of the 7, 3 are now starters at division 1 schools, 2 at SEC schools. The Tigers were weak in the middle this year and struggled at the guard and center positions. Redshirt sophomore Josh Dworacyzk was forced into starting this year, weighing only 281 pounds. How could the girth of McCoy, Thomas or Jones helped the line? What if Allen or Singleton could have played center rather than the undersized and not ready T-Bob Hebert? Therein is significant impact. Conversely Florida only lost Ronnie Wilson. Wilson was certainly a good player, but other than the 2006 the Gators had little trouble with the performance of their offensive line. I have no doubt that Wilson would have been a multi-year starter and probably helped the Gators line, but significance of his loss isn't too great.

TE: LSU lost JD, a low-rated project type and the Gators lost Trent Pupello. Considering LSU had Richard Dickson for the last 3 years and the Gators had both Cornelius Ingram and Aaron Hernandez, neither seems to have suffered tremendous losses.

DL: This is the area which perhaps most impacted the Gators. Although the Gators only lost 2 commitments: Torrey Davis and John Brown, they are both at defensive tackle. Over the past couple of years if the Gators have had any weakness on defense it has been the interior strength of their tackles. RS Freshman Omar Hunter was pushed into starting duties due to the loss of Davis and Brown. Having their depth may have made an impact as significant as helping to shut down the Alabama run game in the SEC Championship (where they were abused up front). Surprisingly LSU hasn't lost a single DL recruit due to transfer or dismissal. However, the loss of so many lineman may have directly effected the future positions of some. Lyle Hitt, Will Blackwell and Joseph Barksdale were all 2-way players in high school that could have tried a hand at playing along the defensive line at LSU. However, due to the gross amount of lost players, LSU was forced to move them to the offensive line to create depth.

LB: At LB LSU lost 4-stars Shomari Clemons and Derrick Odom. Clemons had trouble cracking the depth chart with the current LSU starters, but Odom is a speedy talent that has gone on to be a successful player at Memphis. With his size and athleticism it seems he would have been in line for a opportunity to play under John Chavis. Florida lost Kalvin Baker, Jon Demps and John Jones. Under Strong the Gator's linebackers have been a strength and it's hard to say considerable damage was done by any departure. However, Demps may have been a starter for the past couple of years considering his size and athleticism.

DB: Florida's losses at DB include Eric Sledge, Avery Atkins, Jacques Rickerson and Jeremy Finch. Though these 4 are all nice players, it's hard to imagine any of them playing on this year's squad ahead of the starters. However, they could have made a significant impact in 2006 when Florida's secondary struggled considerably. LSU lost safety Troy Giddens and corner Phelon Jones. Giddens could have potentially be up for a starting job this year next to Chad Jones. Jones was unlikely to ever significantly contribute considering a couple of younger players had moved ahead of him on the depth chart.

When you take a swim through the actual numbers I believe it makes clear why LSU has greatly struggled these last 2 seasons and Florida has not. Florida's most significant losses were DTs and at nearly every other position they had more than adequate solutions. On the other hand LSU faced significant losses at the QB position and along the offensive and defensive lines. If you've watched LSU play the last 2 seasons it is painfully obvious how much they have struggled on the lines and how their QB play has suffered as well. In recent years they have reloaded the positions, but can they hang on to them? That's something only time and the attrition gods can know...






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TheDoc
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doc is no more
Member since Dec 2005
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


we need better linemen





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Big Fat
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"Fear the Hat" returns 2010
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


what is the basis for the attrition?





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nugget
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Member since Dec 2009
5205 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Molton certainly could help a WR corps that will be very green next year

Could you explain this a little more? If he transfered how is he going to help the WRs next year?






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Nike1
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Member since Jun 2009
2846 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


You must be very bored.





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OBUDan
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Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

what is the basis for the attrition?



Sorry, I have that on my full article but I took out parts so it would fit into posts here.

Attrition accounted for here is 2 factors:

1) Players transferring for any reason
2) Players dismissed for any reason

I did not count any players lost to career ending injury, any players who opted to pursue a professional sport or any players who never it made it on campus.







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Rohan2Reed
Grambling Fan
T'uela me la pela
Member since Nov 2003
71853 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


Very good read.





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OBUDan
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40382 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Could you explain this a little more? If he transfered how is he going to help the WRs next year?



Should have said, "could have helped." I meant if he were coming back he could be another option next year.






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OBUDan
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Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Very good read.


Thanks. It was illuminating to research. I feel like I understand why we've struggled so much a lot better now.






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just me
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


Excellent work. It provides an in-depth and much needed analysis into one very important reason why the dominant talent LSU has recruited has failed to result in dominant teams.





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Doc Fenton
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2007
51086 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

The Tigers have lost (1)Kyle Anderson, (2)Matt Allen, (3)Steven Singleton, (4)Mark Snyder, (5)Zhamal Thomas, (6)Ernest McCoy, (7)Jarvis Jones, offensive line recruits. That is simply astounding.


Yep. I'm sure Miles and the staff learned some things after this, but I also think that a lot of it might have just been bad luck. I'm pretty ignorant on these matters though, so I could be wrong.






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The Yetty
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Member since Feb 2005
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


Nice work, OBU. You've been busy over here and on the mainboard lately... I like it.





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lsu1992tigers49ers
LSU Fan
Springdale,Arkansas
Member since Jan 2010
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


way to break it down OBU,you left one thing out are head coach is a idiot,lol.





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Rohan2Reed
Grambling Fan
T'uela me la pela
Member since Nov 2003
71853 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Thanks. It was illuminating to research. I feel like I understand why we've struggled so much a lot better now.



I agree. I know the deal with RP is done and overwith, but that really did throw a wrench into the LSU football machine. With RP I think we only lose 5 games the last 2 years.






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OBUDan
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40382 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

It provides an in-depth and much needed analysis into one very important reason why the dominant talent LSU has recruited has failed to result in dominant teams.



Yeah, I was a bit shocked by the results. Obviously I was well aware of the Perrilloux departure and it's effect, but I hadn't really considered the effect of all the lineman we've lost and how that's really hurt us the last 2 years.






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OBUDan
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
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re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Yep. I'm sure Miles and the staff learned some things after this, but I also think that a lot of it might have just been bad luck. I'm pretty ignorant on these matters though, so I could be wrong.



Depends on what you quantify as bad luck. Most of these guys were kicked off for character problems (Anderson, Thomas, Singleton, McCoy and Jones). Snyder I believe just quit and Allen left to be closer to home and for depth chart reasons.

So it depends on if their were character flags for these guys during recruitment and how much risk was involved in taking them.






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OBUDan
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40382 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

Nice work, OBU. You've been busy over here and on the mainboard lately... I like it.



Are you Yetty on Rivals too?






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aglandry
LSU Fan
lafayette
Member since Oct 2008
2564 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


quote:

The Tigers have lost (1)Kyle Anderson, (2)Matt Allen, (3)Steven Singleton, (4)Mark Snyder, (5)Zhamal Thomas, (6)Ernest McCoy, (7)Jarvis Jones, offensive line recruits. That is simply astounding.




Yep. I'm sure Miles and the staff learned some things after this, but I also think that a lot of it might have just been bad luck.





Need to check out why they left. Miles and staff should have learned from some in this group that character counts. More like bad character than bad luck.






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TIGRLEE
LSU Fan
North Louisiana
Member since Nov 2009
21629 posts

re: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)


good work dan.

Refreshing read.. espec based on what im used to seeing on this board.






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