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re: Miss River Flood Thread 2016, river back on the rise again.......
Posted on 12/29/15 at 6:07 pm to Voorhies7
Posted on 12/29/15 at 6:07 pm to Voorhies7
In 2011 outside the levees were dry. Everything being saturated is my biggest concern. There's not going to be massive amounts of water absorbed by the land like in 2011. The potential to have a very bad day is definitely real.
1
Posted on 12/29/15 at 6:13 pm to Capt ST
That's what has me so surprised about LDWF opening the season back up. I'm more concerned about the levees than deer at this point. The levees are soft right now. I bet there is some serious debate going on behind closed doors between the corps & LDWF.
Posted on 12/29/15 at 6:23 pm to Voorhies7
Money and politics talks. Some big clients reserve Christmas-New Years to hunt. Can't frick that up. Next time they are in in the Capitol debts will be paid. Somebody is gonna get some funding or a bill passed 
Posted on 12/29/15 at 6:53 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
You mean to tell me that works in politics to? That would make for a smooth transition from the Oilfield.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 1:03 am to ihometiger
quote:
They didn't update the Miss River rise for Reserve and New Orleans today. If you look upstream though the River would probably be around 17.5 to 18 in New Orleans.
Look at the chart the crest in NOLA is 17 on 1/9 all the other crest are later in the month that is because the BC spillway will be open at 17ft on the Carrollton gage. The CORPS will not let it get higher. So plan for the BC to open on the 8th or 9th as of now. Our guess is they will hold off on Morganza for now. This will be a short peak not much water behind it.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 1:09 am to ScottieP
This flood will be different from 2011 in that as of now it will be a short peak not prolonged over weeks and that the Red is contributing a good bit of water this time. If you look at the data the Red is contributing 180K right now of the total 350K in the Atch at Simmesport. The Red being high will hinder the CORP from sending more water through the ORCS than in 2011. It almost looks like the Red being high is even causing a slight backwater effect on the ORCS. Next few weeks will be interesting.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 8:36 am to ScottieP
Gdaaaaammit I love the OB! There's always some serious knowledge on here and prevents me from having to google Bs articles to find stuff out. Thanks and keep us posted on the actions taken by the state. I hate that so many ppl can potentially lose everything but I can't help being intrigued by the power of these rivers.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 8:43 am to ScottieP
quote:
The Red being high will hinder the CORP from sending more water through the ORCS than in 2011.
Means they'll probably have to open more gates this time at Morganza
Posted on 12/30/15 at 8:46 am to Ignignot
Anyone have a lease in western terrebonne towards the delta? Just wondering what happened out there in 2011 when the morganza was opened. Just got on a continental lease this year off the Coppasaw and wondering if i should get my boat out of there.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 8:57 am to bayoudude
from what i understand when they opened the gates in 2011 the water hugged the east side of the spillway, alot of people lucked out as far as camp flooding and such
Posted on 12/30/15 at 8:59 am to Ignignot
just looked didn't realize you were south of gibson, all the water in the spillway either has to go out wax lake outlet or through the atch in morgan city, that being said all the water funnels through those 2 points, and at that point its so close to the gulf i don't see really any way it could back up into the bayou black marsh area where you are
Posted on 12/30/15 at 9:11 am to ScottieP
quote:
Is Morganza gonna open????
This flood will be different from 2011 in that as of now it will be a short peak not prolonged over weeks and that the Red is contributing a good bit of water this time. If you look at the data the Red is contributing 180K right now of the total 350K in the Atch at Simmesport. The Red being high will hinder the CORP from sending more water through the ORCS than in 2011. It almost looks like the Red being high is even causing a slight backwater effect on the ORCS. Next few weeks will be interesting.
hmmm somebody that understands how it works....
keep in mind folks morganza only opened twice since built.... BC.. .much much more.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 9:15 am to choupiquesushi
How does the "spillway" west of Simmesport/Melville/Krotz ever get involved?
Posted on 12/30/15 at 9:30 am to Ignignot
quote:
from what i understand when they opened the gates in 2011 the water hugged the east side of the spillway, alot of people lucked out as far as camp flooding and such
Seemed like all the camps were spared on 3 Mile Lake last time they opened Morganza and many people were surprised at this.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 9:53 am to Voorhies7
Heard that the bonnet carre is gonna open on the 20th.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:00 am to Ignignot
quote:
from what i understand when they opened the gates in 2011 the water hugged the east side of the spillway, alot of people lucked out as far as camp flooding and such
In 2011 we had a record Mississippi River flood during a record drought in Louisiana. Many of the predictions of flood levels inside the basins were not met due to the drought conditions. That won't be the case this time. All the soils are saturated. Water has nowhere to go but up.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:21 am to tenfoe
Refresh my memory:
in 2011, how long did the river stay up after hitting high levels vs what is expected this time?
Does that change preparation?
in 2011, how long did the river stay up after hitting high levels vs what is expected this time?
Does that change preparation?
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:28 am to jimjackandjose
quote:
in 2011, how long did the river stay up after hitting high levels vs what is expected this time? Does that change preparation?
I don't remember. I believe when it fell, it did so relatively quickly. I had a project in the Atchafalaya Basin that year requiring some measurements during the fall. I remember watching the river and only having a week or so to get everything together and gather the data. It was May/June high water, then in September you could walk across the basin again. I can't remember the in-between.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:56 am to tenfoe
Getting scary - crest upped to 60 at NTZ. Lots of people moved valuables, farm equipment, etc to the Natchez hills in 2011.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:58 am to tenfoe
Bonnet carre water already coming through locks. Looks like opening will be inevitable. They need to find a way to divert some in the south shore swamp to regrow and save land.
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