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re: Tropical Storm Erika - fat lady has sung, passed out, & getting dry humped
Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:37 pm to Methuselah
Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:37 pm to Methuselah
But but but. Global warming. ...wor wor wor worse hurricanes
0
Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:37 pm to ToulatownTiger
quote:
ToulatownTiger
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:16 am to RATeamWannabe
00z Euro, keep in mind the winds are at 5k ft, not surface.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 3:55 am to GEAUXmedic
pretty cool how it just hovers off the coast there for the last day or so of the model run
Posted on 8/25/15 at 4:22 am to baytiger
Yeah, it's an eye opening run... but it's just one run and thankfully IMO unrealistic.
NHC bumped up to hurricane status in the Bahamas on the 5AM.
NHC bumped up to hurricane status in the Bahamas on the 5AM.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 4:23 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 5:26 am to GEAUXmedic
the GFS is setting up a 500 mb flow that even keeps a southerly track out of the gulf now
Posted on 8/25/15 at 5:35 am to baytiger
Sc bout to take a shot
Posted on 8/25/15 at 5:40 am to baytiger
Really far out but I'd still guess Myrtle Beach and Wilmington up to the Outer Banks at this point if it even hits land. Charleston and inland SC hasn't been directly hit since 1989, hard to imagine that changing now.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 5:42 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 7:18 am to baytiger
quote:
the GFS is setting up a 500 mb flow that even keeps a southerly track out of the gulf now
The global models are really struggling with the upcoming pattern. The two Pacific systems are transporting a ton of energy to the high lats setting off wave breaking insanity. The models may not full catch on to the pattern until late in the game. The NHC discussion is basically, "slight strengthening and WNW movement and then.... Uhh have a great weekend!"
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 7:27 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 7:45 am to rds dc
yeah after Thursday all bets are off really. I feel less confident about saying the Carolinas are safe than I did yesterday.. but I honestly just see it looming there for a bit and then staying out at sea. I'm becoming more confident that it doesn't end up in the Gulf... but that's still not really high either.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 7:45 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 7:49 am to rds dc
quote:
The NHC discussion is basically, "slight strengthening and WNW movement and then.... Uhh have a great weekend!"
yeah that discussion is pretty funny. they don't even know where the storm is exactly. Luckily the recon is already in the antilles thanks to Danny so they'll be able to get out to Erika today
quote:
The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 8:25 am to TDsngumbo
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the
convection located near the center and in the southern semicircle.
The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data.
Erika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear
for the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady
intensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter
increasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low
near Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with
the Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more
strengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are
less aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models.
The GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has
trended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit
at days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity
consensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity
forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.
The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,
as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of
the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two
distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL
show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-
northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit
to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left
of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the
guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is
low.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the
convection located near the center and in the southern semicircle.
The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data.
Erika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear
for the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady
intensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter
increasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low
near Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with
the Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more
strengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are
less aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models.
The GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has
trended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit
at days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity
consensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity
forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.
The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,
as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of
the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two
distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL
show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-
northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit
to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left
of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the
guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is
low.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 8:26 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 8:54 am to baytiger
quote:
I'm becoming more confident that it doesn't end up in the Gulf... but that's still not really high either.
The 06z GEFS tracks are pretty similar to the 00z Euro EPS tracks and they both show a weaker system will track more southerly and possibly dissipate over the islands. The background state of the Atlantic looks suppressed until the system gets past 60W and the system could continue to struggle until then. Conditions could improve after that but how fast will we see strengthening, if we see any at all.
This post was edited on 8/25/15 at 8:55 am
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:05 am to rds dc
At this rate Erika's not even going to be a TS anymore by the time recon gets there. Looks really bad on satellite this morning. 
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:22 am to TDsngumbo
Could you please discribe what you have copy paste. Thanks
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:28 am to Teton Tiger
quote:
Could you please discribe what you have copy paste. Thanks
translation " we have very low confidence in all of our disagreeing models"
Posted on 8/25/15 at 11:39 am to Chad504boy
quote:
translation " we have very low confidence in all of our disagreeing models"
translation "we have no idea what the frick is going on"
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:06 pm to rt3
quote:
translation "we have no idea what the frick is going on"
Prett much
However, the 12z Euro and GFS do appear to be somewhat in agreement that the system stays weak and tracks towards S. Florida. Then a ridge starts to build in with an ULL near Louisiana. This setup keeps the system sheared and weak as it move N. Given this round of model runs, the position and movement of the ULL would be key with variations in movement in strength likely having significant impacts on how Erika evolves in the Gulf.
Recon is out and that data should help out the 00z model runs tonight in the short range. Then it is just a waiting game for the models to pin down the 5 to 8 day period.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:08 pm to rds dc
quote:
translation "we have no idea what the frick is going on"
So that's a maybe to stocking up on beanie weenies right now?
Posted on 8/25/15 at 2:34 pm to rds dc
quote:looks like a dropsonde found 37 knots.... the last second burst of convection saves Erika's tropical storm status
Recon is out and that data should help out the 00z model runs tonight in the short range. Then it is just a waiting game for the models to pin down the 5 to 8 day period.
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